Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Jimbo Fisher and the BCS Computer Models

Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher is not fond of computer rankings in the BCS.  Here is a short video of his statements.  I wonder if he would feel the same using the production ranking that has Florida State at #2 in the nation?  Here is a video of head coach Fisher's comments.


So, naturally I thought of looking at Florida State this year to see why my college football model has the Seminoles currently as the #2 ranked team overall (and #1 for much of the year)?  My model has FSU having the #5 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense.  To put his in perspective, Florida State is currently the only FBS school to be in the top 10 in both offense and defense in my model.

As I mentioned yesterday, the model looks at on-field production in terms of what and how much various on-field actions affect points scored and points surrendered and then ranks each team in terms of their production relative to the other 123 FBS teams.

Here is FSU's 2012 regular season schedule.

Date
Opponent
PF
PA
Result
Site
SOS
9/1/2012
Murray St.
69
3
Won
Home
125
9/8/2012
Savannah St.
55
0
Won
Home
125
9/15/2012
Wake Forest
52
0
Won
Home
94
9/22/2012
Clemson
49
37
Won
Home
43
9/29/2012
South Fla.
30
17
Won
Away
74
10/6/2012
North Carolina St.
16
17
Loss
Away
71
10/13/2012
Boston College
51
7
Won
Home
62
10/20/2012
Miami (FL)
33
20
Won
Away
100
10/27/2012
Duke
48
7
Won
Home
39
11/8/2012
Virginia Tech
28
22
Won
Away
75
11/17/2012
Maryland






Away

11/24/2012
Florida






Home


Notice that the first two games the Seminoles played were against non-FBS teams (hence a Strength of Schedule or SOS of 125 for those schools).  Now the model that I use includes team performance against non-FBS schools.  I grant that this might not be the best, but is what I am currently using.  All of the BCS computer models and the USA Today and Harris Poll use performance by FBS schools against non-FBS schools and some of the BCS computer models use FCS school performance to rank FBS schools.  So, my use of on-field production by FBS schools against non-FBS schools is not different from current BCS rankings systems.  Someday I will go back and take out the non-FBS performance and see how this matters, but for now I will include it.

With that issue addressed, notice that the Seminoles are 9-1 with a one-point loss to North Carolina State.  Florida State has consistently been more productive than the teams they have played and even the North Carolina State game was fairly evenly matched in terms or on-field production.  Otherwise, Florida State has out produced their opponents in each game they played this year with the exception of Virginia Tech - which FSU won.  Finally, from the table above, notice that FSU has played a rather easy schedule with a current strength of schedule of 80.8, which is easier than the average league strength of schedule of 67.52.