ESPN reports that Western Michigan University has terminated head football coach Bill Cubit's contract - which still has one year remaining. Given the departure of head coach Cubit, let's take a look at how Western Michigan has performed using my Complex Invastion College Football production model over the last few seasons under Cubit's tenure. Note that Bill Cubit became head football coach in 2005, but I my model does not go back that far due to data limitations, so I will start with the 2008 season for the Western Michigan Broncos.
2008
The Western Michigan Broncos finished the regular season at 9-3, losing their bowl game to Rice in that season. Western Michigan best win that season was against #33 Northern Illinois and their worst loss was to #46 Central Michigan. Western Michigan finished as the #51 team overall in FBS college football and had the #36 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense. The Broncos played against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 65.85 which is similar to the season average SOS of 62.79.
2009
This was a rather poor season with the Broncos finishing 5-7 and ineligible for a college bowl game. WMU's best win that season was against #67 ranked Buffalo and the Broncos worst loss was to #110 Ball State at home to finish out the regular season. Western Michigan finished as the #93 college football team in the nation that year, with the #77 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense. The Broncos played against a SOS of 82.58 which is substantially easier than the average SOS of 63.27.
2010
For the 2010 campaign Western Michigan finished 6-6 (bowl eligible - but uninvited). The Broncos best win as against #55 Kent St. and their worst performance was a loss to #81 Central Michigan. WMU finished as the #58 ranked team overall, with the #51 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense. Western Michigan played against a SOS of 76.17 which is easier than the average SOS of 62.92.
2011
Last year Western Michigan had a very productive team. The Broncos finished 7-5 in the regular season and finished with a loss to the Purdue Boilermakers in the Little Caesars Bowl - even though Western Michigan was the more productive team going into the game. The Broncos best win was against #34 ranked Miami (OH) and their worst performance was against #35 Eastern Michigan. Western Michigan finished the campaign as the #22 most productive team in the nation with the #24 most productive offense and the #32 most productive defense. WMU played against a SOS of 53.54 which was more difficult than the average SOS of 63.49 for that season.
2012
This season the Western Michigan Broncos finished the regular season at 4-8 and are ineligible for a bowl game. The Broncos best win was against currently #64 ranked Connecticut and their worst loss was to currently #117 Illinois. Western Michigan is currently the #65 ranked team in all of NCAA FBS college football (this will change over the next month) with the currently #43 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense. WMU has played against a SOS of 81.17 as compared to the currently SOS average of 67.58. Since this is greater than one standard deviation from the mean SOS I would conclude that WMU has had an easier than average schedule this season.
Given the last five seasons performance by Western Michigan football team I find terminating head coach Bill Cubit's contract difficult to agree with, especially with all of the academic gains made as mentioned in the articled linked in this paragraph. Cubit's teams over the last five years finished #51, #93, #58, #22 and currently ranked #65 in college football, which is above average for a Mid-American conference school.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.