Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Kentucky Football Under Head Coach Joker Phillips

The University of Kentucky has announced that Joker Phillips will not return as head football coach for next season. So let's take a look at Kentucky's football program using the lens of the complex invasion college football model over his tenure as head football coach at Kentucky.

Joker Phillips took the reigns of the Kentucky football program from Rich Brooks in the 2010 season, going 6-6 in the regular season and losing (27-10) to Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Kentucky finished the season as the #48 ranked team in the nation, with the 35th ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense (using my model).  Kentucky's best win that season was against #30 ranked South Carolina and their worst loss was to #92 Mississippi.  Kentucky was 2-6 against SEC opponents that season and played against a final strength of schedule of 62.69 as compared to an overall league average strength of schedule equal to 62.92.  Thus Kentucky played against almost exactly an average strength of schedule in 2010.

The 2011 season was not good for Kentucky football.  While the team finished 5-7 overall, they were not really even that good according to the complex invasion college football model.  Kentucky finished ranked #109 overall (only Mississippi was worse in the SEC) with the #118 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense.  In other words, Kentucky had the third worst offense in all of the FBS in 2011.  Kentucky's best win was against #48 ranked Central Michigan and their worst loss was against #86 ranked Louisville.  Kentucky finished 2-6 in the SEC with wins over Mississippi and Tennessee, both way below average in their ranking from the model's perspective.  Kentucky also faced an easier than average strength of schedule with their strength of schedule of 73.00 as compared to the average strength of schedule of 63.49.

This season has also been below average.  Kentucky at the time of the announcement that Joker Phillips will not return is 1-9 and 0-7 in conference play.  In fact, Kentucky is currently the worst SEC football team according to the complex invasion college sport model.  Kentucky's only win is against #42 ranked Kent State.  Kentucky (according to the complex invasion college football model) is the #116 ranked team overall in the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #116 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense. In Kentucky's defense, they have played a strength of schedule equal to 39.00 as compared to the average strength of schedule of 67.87 as of last week.  Even still, this was not enough for Phillips to remain as head football coach.

Other head coaches fired:
Idaho's Akey.

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