Saturday, December 3, 2016

Brian Polian Out at Nevada

Brian Polian is out as head football coach at the University of Nevada-Reno. During Polian's tenure at Nevada the football team was 23-27 and had two post-season bowl appearances.  Here a look at the Wolfpack under Polian's tenure as head football coach.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of Nevada Wolfpack football program during Polain's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Nevada has been below average under Polian's tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Polian are after the chart below, including his contract linked below.  For comparison purposes, here is Chris Ault's contract.


Brian Polian (2013 - 2016)

2013
In Polian's first season as head football coach the Wolfpack, Nevada finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that FAU's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation the "league" average SOS.  The Wolfpack best regular season game was a victory (38-16) over #72 San Jose State, their worst loss was to #84 ranked San Diego State (44-51).  Overall, the Wolfpack had the #100 ranked team with the #71 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014 
In Polain's second season as head football coach the Wolfpack finished the regular season at 7-5 and were bowl eligible.  They lost their post-season bowl to the #57 ranked Louisiana Lafayette Rajun Cajuns by a score of (3-16). The Wolfpack played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Wolfpack best regular season game was a (42-35) victory over #21 BYU, their worst loss was to #108 ranked Fresno State (20-40).  Overall, Nevada had the #70 ranked team with the #67 ranked offense and the #87 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 

Nevada finished the regular season overall at 6-6 and were bowl eligible defeating #73 ranked Colorado State (28-23) in their post-season bowl game to finish with a winning record of 7-6.   The Wolfpack played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  The Wolfpack best game was their victory over #60 ranked San Jose State by a score of (37-34) and their worst loss by a score of (21-35) was to #99 Wyoming.  Nevada had the #67 ranked team in total production with the #71 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 

In what ended up as Polian's final season as the head football coach, the Wolfpack were 5-7 (and bowl ineligible) playing against an "much easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Nevada played against a SOS that was greater than two standard deviations higher than the average FBS SOS.  The Wolfpack best win was over currently ranked #73 UNLV (45-10) and their worst loss (14-24) was to currently ranked #126 Purdue.  Nevada had the #98 ranked team in total production with the #90 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
San Jose State and Ron Caragher
Oregon and Mark Helfrich
Texas and Charlie Strong
Georgia State and Trent Miles
Fresno State and Tim DeRuyter
Purdue and Darrell Hazell
LSU and Les Miles
Florida International University and Ron Turner
Baylor and Art Briles

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