Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Tim DeRuyter Out at Fresno State

On October 23, 2016, Fresno State dismissed head football coach Tim DeRuyter two-thirds through his fifth season. DeRuyter finishes at 30-30 at the helm of the Bulldogs football program.  Former head coach DeRuyter was hired on December 14, 2011 after Pat Hill was fired in December.
 
So here is a look at the Fresno State Bulldogs football program with regard to the football teams productivity in relation to the rest of the "league" under head coach Tim DeRuyter (2012-2016*), For those interested, here are the contracts (PDF) for head coaches:  Pat Hill and Tim DeRuyter.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Fresno State Bulldogs football program during DeRuyter's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Fresno State has dropped substantially over the last two and a half seasons. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under DeRuyter are after the chart below.


Tim DeRuyter (2012 - 2016*)

2012
DeRuyter's first season as the new head football coach the Bulldogs finished the regular season at 9-3, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Fresno State was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  They lost the Hawai'i Bowl to #57 SMU 10-43.  Their best regulars season game was their victory over #52 San Diego State 52-40, and their worst regular season loss was to #25 ranked Tulsa (26-27).  Overall, Fresno State had the #11 ranked team with the #14 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  In terms of overall production, this was the best season under head coach DeRuyter, even thought the team won more games in the next season.

2013
In DeRuyter's second season as head football coach Fresno State finished the regular season at 11-1, playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Fresno State was within one to two standard deviation's above the "league's" average SOS.  They again lost their post season bowl game to the #34 ranked USC Trojans by a score of 20-45 in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, and finished overall at 11-2.  Their best regular season game was their 24-17 victory over #23 Utah State and their worst regular season loss was to #72 ranked San Jose State (52-62).  Overall, Fresno State had the #19 ranked team with the #7 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Bulldogs finished the regular season at 6-6 and were again bowl eligible, even after their conference championship loss to #13 Boise State 14-28.  Fresno State again lost their bowl game, this time to #66 Rice in the Hawai'i Bowl by a score of 6-30.  This season the Bulldogs again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Bulldogs best regular season game was a victory (24-13) over #55 ranked San Diego State, their worst regular season loss was to #125 ranked UNLV.  Overall, the Bulldogs had the #108 ranked team with the #72 ranked offense and the #121 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Fresno State finished the regular season overall at 3-9 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS and again were bowl ineligible.  The Bulldogs best game was a victory (31-28) was over #96 ranked UNLV and their worst loss (31-34) was to #73 Colorado State.  Fresno Sttae had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #114 ranked offense and the #107 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the time of head football coach's DeRuyter's departure, the Bulldogs were 1-7 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, which means that their current strength of schedule is within one to two standard deviations below the "league's" average SOS.  To date, Fresno State's only win was over #FCS Sacremento State and their worst loss (22-27) was to currently ranked #97 Nevada.  Fresno State at the time of DeRuyter's departure had the #127 ranked team in total production (i.e. 2nd to worst in all of the FBS) with the #117 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
Purdue and Darrell Hazell
LSU and Les Miles
Florida International University and Ron Turner
Baylor and Art Briles

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