Today the Daily Iowan has an article arguing that the NHL will be more popular than the NBA, primarily because the NBA lockout will lower fan interest. As demonstrated in our book, The Wages of Wins, we show that fan game attendance does not change in a statistically significant manner after a work stoppage (strike or lockout) in either the NBA or the NHL. So in terms of fan spectator attendance the article is on thin ice.
What about television ratings? In my opinion, this is an important question that has not been resolved in any systematic way (that I know of anyway). In other words I have not seen any research on how fans preferences for the NHL or the NBA is changing. What I have seen is an article from AdWeek on the Nielsen Ratings of the recent NBA and NHL finals showing that the NBA ratings are much greater than the NHL Stanley Cup finals in 2011. US Television ratings have been fairly stable for the NHL according to this data.
While I admit this is anecdotal evidence, it does not support the underlying argument by the Daily Iowan writer that the NHL is poised to overcome the NBA in popularity.
After reading the article I couldn't have disagreed more. Glad to see there is statistical evidence to back this up.
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