Since the 2008 NCAA FBS season, the variation in common of winning percentage in one year to the next explains from 36% in the 2008-2009 seasons to 23.5% for the 2011-2012 seasons.
So given that NCAA FBS previous seasons winning percent explains less than half of the next seasons winning percent, how does the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model's ranking relate year to year? As you can see in the table below the variation in total NCAA FBS Production Rank from one year to the next explains between 28% and 43% of the variation in total rank.
In terms of offensive ranking, the previous seasons offensive rank explains from 19% to 34% and in terms of defensive ranking, the prior seasons defensive rank explains from 28% to 34%.
In each case, the previous season is not a great predictor of the next season in that the variation in common is less than 50%; which is what makes college football so interesting - that for the "league" as a whole we really cannot predict what will happen.