Last night Louisville defeated Southern Mississippi in a very competitive game, bringing the model to 3-1 for the bowl year. So with the game in the books, let's take a look at tonight's game. Based on the NCAA FBS production model this is one of the best bowls of the year - even better than some of the BCS bowls in January. It is a shame that Boise State - again one of the best teams in the nation - ends up playing against a non-BCS team in a post-season bowl. Last year they played against TCU. How can this happen that a team with only one loss does not play against a BCS team? Anyway, here is the tale of the tape for these two schools.
Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (10-2) vs. Boise State (11-1)
Utah (#28) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #32 and a defense that is ranked #38. Utah also has a SOS of 69.53, with their best win against Air Force (#23 overall) and their worst loss against Notre Dame (#50 overall).
Boise State (#1) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #2 and a defense that is ranked #1. Boise State also has a SOS of 71.92, with their best win against Hawaii (#6 overall) and their worst (and only) loss against Nevada (#7 overall).
Thus based only on the production model Boise State is favored over Utah. So I am picking Boise State.