Up-to-Date NCAA FBS Production Model Performance: Last night San Diego State defeated Navy, bringing the model to 4-2 for the bowl season.
Ah, the Hawai'i Bowl. I wish I was in Hawai'i (with my lovely wife and wonderful boys - of course), but I am here in Iowa with my family, so on the whole that is better than not being with my family. But I digress. Let's look at the tale of the tape for the Hawai'i Bowl.
Hawai'i Bowl: Tulsa (9-3) vs. Hawai'i (10-3)
Tulsa (#29) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #13 and a defense that is ranked #75. Tulsa also has a SOS of 78.53, with Tulsa's best win against #42 (in terms of production) Southern Mississippi, and their worst loss against (#92 production ranked) East Carolina.
Hawai'i (#6) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #3 and a defense that is ranked #41. Hawai'i also has a SOS of 77.92, with Hawai'i's best win against #7 (in terms of production) Nevada and their worst loss against #45 (in terms of production) USC.
Expect a high scoring game with such powerful offenses like Hawai'i's against Tulsa's below average defense. Thus based only on the production model Hawai'i is favored over Tulsa. So the model predicts that Hawai'i will win the Hawai'i Bowl this year.
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