Here is the numbers for the three bowls today. If I get a chance, I will also look at Maryland over the last few years.
Military Bowl: Maryland (8-4) vs. East Carolina (6-6)
Maryland (#40) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #64 and a defense that is ranked #23. Maryland also has a SOS of 59.33, with their best win over #32 (in terms of overall production) Navy and their worst loss against #35 (in terms of overall production) Clemson.
East Carolina (#92) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #47 and a defense that is ranked #114. East Carolina also has a SOS of 55.83, with their best win over #29 (in terms of overall production) Tulsa and their worst loss against #108 (in terms of overall production) Rice.
Thus based only on the production model Maryland is more productive than East Carolina and thus the model predicts that Maryland will defeat East Carolina in the 2010 Military Bowl.
Texas Bowl: Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Illinois (#48) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #48 and a defense that is ranked #50. Illinois also has a SOS of 61.00, with their best win over #9 (in terms of production) Northern Illinois and their worst loss against #89 (in production) Minnesota.
Baylor (#47) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #18 and a defense that is ranked #85. Baylor also has a SOS of 66.42, with their best win over #57 Texas and their worst loss against #75 Texas Tech.
Thus based only on the production model Baylor is more productive than Illinois so the model picks Baylor to defeat Illinois in the 2010 Texas Bowl.
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Oklahoma State (#10) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #4 and a defense that is ranked #54. Oklahoma State also has a SOS of 62.42, with their best win over #29 (in terms of overall production) Tulsa and their worst loss against #19 (in terms of overall production) Nebraska.
Arizona (#21) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #24 and a defense that is ranked #29. Arizona also has a SOS of 63.58, with their best win over #17 (in terms of overall production) Iowa and their worst loss against #88 (in terms of overall production) Oregon State.
Thus based only on the production model Oklahoma State is more productive than Arizona, thus the model predicts that Oklahoma State will defeat Arizona in the 2010 Alamo Bowl.