Today's Army-Navy game marks the end of the regular season in college FBS football for this year. As I did last year, let's take a look at these two teams for today's game.
Army is currently 3-8 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 64.0. Army's best win was against currently ranked #77 Northwestern and their worst loss was the following week against #104 Ball State. Army currently has the #55 most productive team in the nation - which is slightly above average, so their win/loss record shows they have had a rather "unlucky" season. Army has the 63rd most productive offense and the 42nd most productive defense.
Navy is in a similar situation. The Midshipman are 4-7 playing against a strength of schedule of 69.82. Navy's best win was against #61 SMU and their worst loss was against #95 East Carolina. Navy has consistently underperformed in terms of wins and losses this season. Navy has the #30 most productive team in the nation, with the #23rd most productive offense and the #52 most productive defense
Both teams have underperformed in terms of wins this season. Army has lost to Ball State, Miami (OH) and Rutgers. Each team is statistically less productive than Army, and thus Army should be at least a bowl eligible team this season. Navy has lost to East Carolina, Rutgers and San Jose State. Statistically the Midshipmen could have 7 or 8 wins as opposed to the four wins they currently have.
Given that Navy is a more productive team than Army this season, the model "predicts" that Navy will be the winner of the game today.