Later today the Mid-American Football Championship Game will be played with Ohio and Northern Illinois facing each other for the conference crown. Let's take a look at how each has fared from the production model's perspective.
Ohio is currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule of 86.92, which is a fairly easy schedule. Ohio has only played one team that is currently above average in terms of my measure of production (Temple) and defeated them a few weeks ago. Thus all nine of Ohio's wins are against below average teams in terms of production. That said, Ohio is currently the #28 most productive team, with an offense ranked as the #27 most productive and a defense ranked as the #43 most productive.
Northern Illinois is also currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule equal to 77.42, and like Ohio easier than the average SOS. Unlike Ohio, Northern Illinois has defeated two teams that are above average (Toledo and Western Michigan). Northern Illinois is the #20 most productive team with an offense ranked at #8 and a defense ranked at #87.
There is not much difference in the overall rankings so this game might be close. The model gives the nod to Northern Illinois.