Thursday, December 1, 2011

Washington State has fired Paul Wulff and hired Mike Leach

Washington State University has fired their head football coach Paul Wulff, and hired Mike Leach as their head football coach. So let's take a look at how the NCAA production model views Washington State over the last few years. (I will blog on how Texas Tech fared with (2008 & 2009) and without (2010 & 2011) Mike Leach in July 2012).

The Washington State Cougars finished the 2011 season at 4-8 against a strength of schedule equal to 68.67, which is about average in terms of strength to schedule. Washington State's best win was against Arizona State (currently ranked #51 in the production model), and their worst loss was to Oregon State (currently at #95 overall). In terms of the Huskies performance this season, they currently rank as the #78 most productive team, with the #45 most productive offense and the #107 most productive defense. As you will see below, Washington State is vastly improved since Wulff was hired.

In 2010, the WSU finished 2-10 against a strength of schedule of 56.75. They were the #111 most productive team with the #98 most productive offense and the #116 most productive defense.

And now we hit rock bottom. In 2009 the Cougars were 1-11 against a strength of schedule of 50.00, with the worst team in the nation in terms of production (#120); the second to worst offense (#119) and the worst defense (#120).

2008 was not much different from 2009, with Washington State finishing 2-11 against a strength of schedule of 57.08, and again the Cougars had the worst team in the nation in terms of production (#120); the second to worst offense (#119) and the second to worst defense (#119).

Thus Mike Leach inherits a team on the rise, but with a significant hill to climb in order to make Washington State competitive in the Pac 12, let alone for BCS standings and bowls. Coach Leach has five years to get this done, and given his track record at Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas Tech it is possible. Given his damaged goods reputation (whether true or not), he will have a lot of eyes on his management of the team.