Texas Tech fired Mike Leach at the end of the 2009 season. So how has Texas Tech performed on the field over the last two years (2008 and 2009 seasons) of Leach's tenure - and the earliest that I have all the data I need to do the NCAA FBS production analysis - and how Texas Tech has performed during the 2010, 2011 and 2012 seasons under Tommy Tuberville?
First let's take a look at the production of the Texas Tech University football team under Leach.
Starting with the 2008 season, Texas Tech's football team
finished 11-2 overall including a Cotton Bowl loss to #18 Mississippi. TTU finished as the #10 most productive team in the Football Bowl
Subdivision using my NCAA FBS Production Model
Ranking, which is excellent for the "league" as a whole. The Red Raiders were above average on offense, with the #5 ranked most
productive offense. On the defensive side of the ball, TTU was slightly below average - with the #72 most productive defense. All of this
against an average (strength of schedule (SOS) = 60.15) than the 2008 season's average SOS of 62.92. Texas Tech's most impressive victory came against the NCAA FBS Production Model #5 ranked Texas Longhorns (39 - 33) and their worst performance was a 34-47 Cotton Bowl loss to the University of Mississippi.
In 2009 - the last year with head coach Leach at the helm, in terms of the NCAA FBS Production Model TTU was ranked #19 in terms of overall production, which is worse than in 2008, but still an excellent performance. TTU faced a strength of
schedule equal to 59.38 - which is average as compared to the average
SOS for 2009 of (62.98) and finished 8-4 in the regular season and 9-4 overall with a 41-31 Alamo Bowl victory against #57 ranked Michigan State. The Red Raider's
best win was against the NCAA FBS Production Model #8 University of Oklahoma Sooners (41-13) and
their worst loss was to the NCAA FBS Production Model #44 Texas A&M (30-52).
Turning now to Tuberville's tenure (2010 - 2012) as head football coach, in terms of the NCAA FBS Production Model, Texas Tech finished the regular season at 7-5 and was victorious (45-38) in the TicketCity Bowl
over #75 ranked Northwestern to finish 8-5 during the 2010 season. TTU finished as the #64 most
productive team overall in the football bowl subdivision with the
#18 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense. The Red Raiders faced an
average strength of schedule of 59.92 as compared to the overall league
SOS of 63.10. Texas Tech's
best win using the NCAA FBS Production Model was against #14 Missouri (24-17) and their worst loss was to the NCAA FBS Production Model #95 Iowa State (14-24).
The following season (2011) resulted in a rather dramatic decline in Texas Tech's production in terms of the NCAA FBS Production Model as the Red Raiders finished 5-7 and were Bowl ineligible. TTU was the #97 most productive team in the Football Bowl
Subdivision. Texas Tech played
against an average SOS (60.25) as compared to the league average SOS of
63.24. TTU's offense from the NCAA FBS Production Model was ranked #43 and their defense was ranked #112. TTU's best win was a (35-34) victory over #19 ranked Oklahoma and their worst loss was to #109 Iowa State (7-41).
This past season (2012) the Red Raider's finished the regular season at 7-5 and won the Meinke Car Care Bowl (as I predicted) against #90 ranked University of Minnesota to finish the season overall at 8-5. Texas Tech played against a SOS of
66.46 which is within one standard deviation of schedule strengths given the
"league's" SOS for 2012 of 65.53. In terms of the NCAA FBS Production Model, TTU finished as the #48 ranked team overall with the #27 ranked offense,
but having the #84 ranked defense. The Red Raider's best game was a 56-53 victory over #39 ranked TCU using my NCAA FBS Production Model and their worst performance was a 22-31 loss over #53 ranked Texas Longhorns using my NCAA FBS Production Model.
Thus Texas Tech had a highly productive team under Mike Leach and due to some off field problems that caused national attention Texas Tech let go of their head football coach. Whether that was the "correct" decision, I will let others answer. In terms of on-field production, we see that Texas Tech was more productive under Leach than under Tuberville. That may not be a fair conclusion as the model that I am using only allows me to look at the last two years (2008 & 2009) under Leach and does not let me go back farther to see how Texas Tech fared in his earlier tenure with the team. It is possible that productive coaches have a period of time needed to get the team to change to their system from that of the previous head coach. To me this is an unanswered question, that I hope to return to at a later date.
That said, I would conclude that Texas Tech's performance is worse after the departure of Leach.