January 1st Bowls

Happy New Year!

The model went 2-2 yesterday, bring the running total to 13-9 for the bowl season. So let's take a look at today's games.

Ticket City Bowl: Northwestern (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)
Northwestern (#76) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #80 and a defense that is ranked #58. Northwestern also has a SOS of 71.00, with their best win over #17 (based on the production model) Iowa and their worst loss against #97 (based on the production model) Purdue.

Texas Tech (#75) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #40 and a defense that is ranked #97. Texas Tech also has a SOS of 60.08, with their best win over #25 (based on the production model) Missouri and their worst loss against #82 (based on the production model) Iowa State.

Thus based only on the production model Texas Tech is slightly more productive than Northwestern, thus the model predicts that Texas Tech will win the Ticket City Bowl.


Outback Bowl: Penn State (7-5) vs. Florida (7-5)
Penn State (#65) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #67 and a defense that is ranked #53. Penn State also has a SOS of 51.92, with their best win over #46 (in overall productivity) Temple and their worst loss against #48 (in overall productivity) Illinois.

Florida (#33) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #66 and a defense that is ranked #11. Florida also has a SOS of 51.75, with their best win over #27 (in overall productivity) Georgia and their worst loss against #41 (in overall productivity) Mississippi State.

Thus based only on the production model Florida is more productive than Penn State, thus the production model predicts that Florida will win the Outback Bowl.


Capital One Bowl: Michigan State (11-1) vs. Alabama (9-3)
Michigan State (#24) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #25 and a defense that is ranked #36. Michigan State also has a SOS of 65.08, with their best win over #8 (based on the production model) Wisconsin and their worst (and only) loss against #17 (based on the production model) Iowa.

Alabama (#4) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #15? and a defense that is ranked #2. Alabama also has a SOS of 62.33, with their best win over #18 (based on the production model) Arkansas and their worst loss against #39 (based on the production model) South Carolina.

Thus based only on the production model Alabama is favored over Michigan State, thus the model predicts that Alabama will win the Capital One Bowl.


Gator Bowl: Michigan (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4)
Michigan (#51) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #22 and a defense that is ranked #81. Michigan also has a SOS of 56.75, with their best win over #44 (from the production model) Connecticut and their worst loss against #65 (from the production model) Penn State.

Mississippi State (#41) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #43 and a defense that is ranked #43. Mississippi State also has a SOS of 52.00, with their best win over #27 (from the production model) Georgia and their worst loss against #36 (from the production model) LSU.

Thus based only on the production model Mississippi State is favored over Michigan, thus the model predicts Mississippi State as the winner of the Gator Bowl.


Rose Bowl: TCU (12-0) vs. Wisconsin (11-1)
TCU (#2) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #5 and a defense that is ranked #4. TCU also has a SOS of 76.00, with their best win over #23 (in terms of overall production) Air Force.

Wisconsin (#8) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #10 and a defense that is ranked #15. Wisconsin also has a SOS of 72.83, with their best win over #5 (in terms of overall production) Ohio State and their worst (and only) loss against #24 (in terms of overall production) Michigan State.

Thus based only on the production model TCU is favored over Wisconsin, thus the model predicts that TCU will win the Rose Bowl.


Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (11-2) vs. Connecticut (8-4)
Oklahoma (#15) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #9 and a defense that is ranked #39. Oklahoma also has a SOS of 50.38, with their best win over #10 (from the production model) Oklahoma State and their worst loss against #31 (from the production model) Texas A&M.

Connecticut (#44) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #65? and a defense that is ranked #27. Connecticut also has a SOS of 64.92, with their best win over #13 (in terms of overall productivity) West Virginia and their worst loss against #96 (in terms of overall productivity) Rutgers.

Thus based only on the production model Oklahoma is favored over Connecticut, so the model predicts that Oklahoma will win the Fiesta Bowl.