UPDATE: The model went 6-0 on Saturday, giving the overall tally 19 correct and 9 incorrect. Not bad given the amount of what I would consider upset's during this years bowl season. But enought of that, let's look at this year's Orange Bowl which puts two team's equally matched against each other, with the best of the ACC against the second best PAC 10 team. Here's how they stack up.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Stanford (11-1)
Virginia Tech (#16) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #14 and a defense that is ranked #33. Virginia Tech also has a SOS of 64.69, with VT's best win against Florida State (#22 in terms of production) and their worst loss was against FCS James Madison - which for all FCS schools I rank 121.
Stanford (#11) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #8 and a defense that is ranked #26. Stanford also has a SOS of 71.75 with Stanford's best win coming against Arizona (#21 in terms of overall production) and their worst (and only loss) against (#3 Oregon in terms of overall production).
Thus based only on the production model Stanford is favored over Virginia Tech. So the model predicts that Stanford will be the winner of this year's Orange Bowl.
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