Here is the numbers for tonight's BBVA Compass Bowl.
BBVA Compass Bowl: Kentucky (6-6) vs. Pittsburgh (7-5)
Kentucky (#38) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #29 and a defense that is ranked #58. Kentucky also has a SOS of 64.67, with their best win against #30 Louisville and their worst loss against #87 Mississippi.
Pittsburgh (#26) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #51 and a defense that is ranked #9. Pittsburgh also has a SOS of 55.58, with Pitt's best win over #30 Louisville and Pitt's worst loss against #50 Notre Dame.
Thus based only on the production model Pittsburgh is favored over Kentucky, so the model predicts that Pittsburgh will win this year's BBVA Compass Bowl.