Update: As of now, the NCAA FBS production model is 21-9. Here are the numbers for the Go Daddy Bowl.
Go Daddy Bowl: Miami (OH) (9-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6)
Miami (OH) (#55) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #60 and a defense that is ranked #48. Miami (OH) also has a SOS of 70.85, with their best win against #9 (in terms of production) Northern Illinois and their worst loss against #73 (in terms of production) Cincinnati.
Middle Tennessee (#85) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #87 and a defense that is ranked #74. Middle Tennessee also has a SOS of 89.83 with their best win against #71 (in terms of production) Florida International and their worst loss against #119 Memphis - ouch! Middle Tennessee may be the worst team playing in a bowl game this year.
Thus based only on the production model Miami (OH) is favored over Middle Tennessee. Not a game that is high on my list of priorities tonight.