Here is the tale of the tape for tonights Sugar Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2)
Ohio State (#5) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #16 and a defense that is ranked #5. Ohio State also has a SOS of 63.42 with OSU's best win over #17 Iowa and worse (and only) loss over #8 Wisconsin.
Arkansas (#18) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #12 and a defense that is ranked #42. Arkansas also has a SOS of 56.25, with Arkansas' best win over #27 Georgia and worst loss over #12 Auburn.
Thus based only on the production model Ohio State is favored over Arkansas, so the model predicts that Ohio State will defeat Arkansas in this year's Sugar Bowl.
Looks like you are neck and neck with another individual bowl prediction system I found a while back (toward the bottom of the page). Given the two great records on prediction, it sounds like the favorites are doing what they're supposed to do this season.
ReplyDeletehttp://www-personal.umich.edu/~bwest/