Here is the tale of the tape for tonights Sugar Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2)
Ohio State (#5) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #16 and a defense that is ranked #5. Ohio State also has a SOS of 63.42 with OSU's best win over #17 Iowa and worse (and only) loss over #8 Wisconsin.
Arkansas (#18) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #12 and a defense that is ranked #42. Arkansas also has a SOS of 56.25, with Arkansas' best win over #27 Georgia and worst loss over #12 Auburn.
Thus based only on the production model Ohio State is favored over Arkansas, so the model predicts that Ohio State will defeat Arkansas in this year's Sugar Bowl.