Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Colorado State Fired Fairchild

Colorado State University has fired Steve Fairchild as their head coach. CSU announced that they have hired Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain. [Contract details]

Let's take a look at the Colorado State Rams since 2008, starting with this season. In 2011 the Rams finished 3-9, against a strength of schedule of 67.92 - slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. CSU had the 97th most productive team with the 89th most productive offense and the 93rd most productive defense. (Yes, they ranked lower than the end points - this happens since we are ranking teams relative to each other). Hence the Rams were not that good as their record would indicate. The three previous seasons were not much better. In 2010, CSU was the #108th most productive team; and in both 2008 and 2009 CSU was the #105 ranked team in total production. So while CSU was better in 2011 (relative to the rest of the teams in the bottom quartile of FBS schools) they were not that much better than their three previous seasons.

Alabama's offensive productivity (based on the NCAA FBS model) over the last two seasons has this season ranked at #19 (end of regular season) and for 2010 was ranked at #13 in the nation. Thus CSU has hired someone who has had some success on offense in the SEC, and time will tell if that can be translated to Fort Collins.

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