Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Capital One Bowl 2012

The Capital One Bowl has the Georgia Bulldogs of the Southeastern Conference playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers of the Big 10 Conference.  Here is how each looks using the NCAA FBS Production Model.

Georgia finished the regular season at 11-1, with a loss in the SEC championship game to currently ranked #1 Alabama, and the Bulldogs are currently 11-2 playing against an average strength of schedule.  Georgia's best win this season was against currently ranked #9 Florida and their worst (of their two losses) was to currently ranked #27 South Carolina.  Georgia is currently ranked in terms of overall production as the #7 team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #4 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense.  Yes, one of the best teams in the SEC played a strength of schedule that is considered average in that is is within one standard deviation of the "leagues" average strength of schedule.  Later on this month, I will write a blog on the different conferences strength of schedule and investigate this in further detail.

Nebraska is currently 10-3 playing against a tougher than average strength of schedule.  In other words, Nebraska has played better opponents this season than Georgia in a statistically measurable way.  Nebraska's best win was over currently ranked #23 Arkansas State and their worst loss was in the Big 10 championship game to currently ranked #25 Wisconsin.  Nebraska is currently the #32 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #14 most productive offense and the #59 most productive defense.

Given that Georgia is more productive on both offense and defense, the model "predicts" that Georgia will be the winner in today's Capital One Bowl.

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