Friday, January 11, 2013

Competitive Balance in the NFL

With the NFL regular season over, let's take a look at how competitively balanced the NFL was this past season.  As a reminder, I am using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance which statistically measures the actual performance from the ideal performance.  An ideal level of competitive balance using the Noll-Scully measure would equal 1.000, and levels above 1.000 means that the league has some competitive imbalance, with higher Noll-Scully numbers meaning more competitive imbalance.

So here is the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance for the 2012 NFL regular season.  Using the standard deviation of a population yields a Noll-Scully = 1.524 and using the standard deviation of a sample yields a Noll-Scully of 1.549.  So is this good or bad?  That depends on how competitive the NFL has been in prior years.  So I looked at the regular season standings from 1981 to 2011 and as you can see below the 2012 NFL regular season is very similar in terms of competitive balance to prior seasons.  For those interested, here is my step-by-step guide to calculating the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance.

Here is the Noll-Scully competitive balance measures using both the population and sample standard deviations from the NFL's 1981 regular season to the 2012 regular season.  As you can see in the table below that the 2012 regular season is not much different than the average during this time period.  Average NS (population) from 1981 to 2012 = 1.505 and Average NS (sample) from 1981 to 2012 = 1.531.

Season
NS Population
NS Sample
1981
1.364
1.389
1982
1.677
1.708
1983
1.370
1.395
1984
1.651
1.681
1985
1.540
1.569
1986
1.639
1.669
1987
1.372
1.397
1988
1.320
1.344
1989
1.415
1.441
1990
1.591
1.620
1991
1.710
1.742
1992
1.625
1.655
1993
1.260
1.283
1994
1.375
1.400
1995
1.204
1.224
1996
1.448
1.473
1997
1.429
1.453
1998
1.682
1.711
1999
1.470
1.494
2000
1.549
1.575
2001
1.600
1.627
2002
1.300
1.320
2003
1.509
1.533
2004
1.515
1.539
2005
1.668
1.694
2006
1.425
1.447
2007
1.634
1.660
2008
1.631
1.657
2009
1.585
1.611
2010
1.474
1.497
2011
1.610
1.636
2012
1.524
1.549