This year's Fiesta Bowl has the Kansas State Wildcats of the Big 12 Conference playing against the University of Oregon Ducks of the PAC 12 Conference. Here is how each team looks using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Kansas State is currently 11-1 playing against an average strength of schedule. Kansas State's best win was over currently ranked #26 Oklahoma and was defeated only once by currently ranked #73 Baylor. Kansas State is currently the 16th most productive team in the "league" with the #26 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense.
Oregon is currently also 11-1 playing against an average strength of schedule. Oregon's best win was over currently ranked #8 Fresno State and their only loss was to currently ranked #18 Stanford. Oregon is currently the #2 team in the nation in terms of overall productivity, with the best offense (#1 in the nation) and the #27 ranked defense.
Given that Oregon is more productive than Kansas State, the model "predicts" that Oregon will win the Fiesta Bowl tonight.