Today's Gator Bowl features the Mississippi State Bulldogs from the Southeastern Conference and the Northwestern Wildcats from the Big 10 Conference - so it is a game between cats and dogs. Here's a look using the teams on-field production this year using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Mississippi State finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Bulldogs most impressive win (victory over highest ranked team using the NCAA FBS Production Model) was over currently ranked #54 Troy and all seven of their other victories were over teams in the bottom half of the NCAA FBS production model rankings. All four of their losses were to teams in the top half of the production model's rankings. Mississippi State is currently ranked as the #41 team in overall productivity, with the #45 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense.
Northwestern finished the regular season at 9-3 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Wildcats most impressive win was over currently ranked #39 Vanderbilt. All three of Northwestern's losses were to teams currently ranked in the top quartile of the NCAA FBS Production model rankings. Northwestern is currently the #45 most productive team in the nation with the #46 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.
This game (in terms of the model) is fairly even, with a slight nod to Mississippi State. So the model would "predict" that Mississippi State will be victorious in today's Gator Bowl, but with not much confidence.