Saturday, January 5, 2013

BBVA Compass Bowl 2012

The BBVA Compass Bowl today has the University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) Rebels of the Southeastern Conference playing against the Pittsburgh Panthers of the Big East Conference.  Here is how each team compares using the NCAA FBS Production Model.

Mississippi is currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league".  Mississippi's best win of the season came against currently ranked #41 Mississippi State in order to become bowl eligible; all other five wins were against teams currently ranked 90 or higher.  Mississippi's worst loss was to currently ranked #55 Texas.  Mississippi is currently ranked as the #50 team in overall production with the #58 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense.

Pittsburgh is also currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule.  Pittsburgh's best win this season was against currently ranked #15 Rutgers and their worst loss was to Youngstown State (a non-FBS team), which in my measure of strength of schedule is equal to 125.  Pittsburgh is currently ranked as the #30 most productive team in the "league", with the #61 most productive offense and the #13 most productive defense.

Given that Pittsburgh is more productive than Mississippi, the model "predicts" that Pittsburgh will win the BBVA Compass Bowl today.

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