Monday, January 21, 2013

2012-2013 NCAA FBS Conference Strength of Schedule

Last year I wrote about NCAA FBS Conference strength of schedule (SOS), so I thought that I would continue that for this year.  Now that all the NCAA bowl games have been completed - and I have some free time to work on this - here is the NCAA FBS Conference SOS's for the 2012-2013 season (including bowl games).

As a reminder, here is how I measure a team's strength of schedule for a season, (with an adjustment of including four new teams this year, making the total of 124 NCAA FBS schools, instead of 120 as when I originally wrote the blog post).  For conference strength of schedule, I take each team's individual strength of schedule within one conference and average of all of those strength of schedules to find the conference strength of schedule.  For example, let's suppose the four independent's were a "conference", then for Army, BYU, Navy and Notre Dame I am taking the average of each of the four schools individual strength of schedule measures to calculate their conference SOS.

The "league" as a whole has an average strength of schedule of 65.53, and a standard deviation of 9.55. The reason that the "league" average SOS is it not equal to 62.50 - which would be the average of 1 through 124, since there are currently 124 NCAA FBS schools - is because NCAA FBS teams play teams in the football championship subdivision (FCS) and I do not have a model to rank them, so each FCS school is given a rank of #125 for the season. Given the number of FCS schools on FBS teams schedule, the average for all FBS schools increases to 63.53 from 62.50, which is not that much of a difference.

Here are the results - with the SEC having the most difficult strength of schedule for the 2012-13 NCAA FBS season.

Conference SOS
SEC 55.53
Big12 57.29
Pac 12 59.32
Big10 61.99
Big East 62.70
Ind 64.89
ACC 65.47
CUSA 70.56
Sun Belt 72.49
MidAmerican 72.88
WAC 73.38
Mountain West 73.97

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