Friday, October 26, 2012

2012 Notre Dame - Oklahoma Preview

Thought that I would look at the Notre Dame - Oklahoma game this weekend using the NCAA FBS model.

Notre Dame is ranked in my model as the #11 team in the nation, with the 82nd best offense (below average) and the #2 defense in the nation - yes they are really that good.  For those interested in strength of schedule (SOS), I have Notre Dame's current SOS at 58.86.  The average SOS as of last week was 69.51, so Notre Dame has had a stronger strength of schedule.  Notre Dame's best opponent so far has been Michigan - currently ranked #30 overall (won).

Oklahoma is ranked as the #5 team using my model and have the #17 offense and the #8 best defense.  Oklahoma's SOS is a 68.33, which is closer to the average.  Oklahoma has played tougher opponents (Kansas State currently #3 overall (loss) and Texas Tech currently #8 overall (won)).

So in terms of the game (from the model's perspective) it looks as if Notre Dame's offense has a difficult road against such a relatively more productive Oklahoma defense.  Thus the model would predict that Oklahoma will be the winner, but who actually knows - that's the fun of sports.

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