|Armed Forces Bowl 2013|
Navy finished the regular season with a win over rival Army to finish 8-4. Navy's best game (win over highest ranked team using the model) was a 42-14 victory over #55 South Alabama and their worst performance (loss to lowest ranked team played) was a 34-38 defeat to #85 Notre Dame. Overall, Navy played an "easier" strength of schedule as compared to the "league" on average, meaning that Navy's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league's" average SOS. Compared to the other teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, Navy is slightly below average in overall production sitting at #68 in total production, with currently the #77 ranked offense. On the bright side Navy has an above average defense, currently ranked as the #51 defense in the FBS.
Middle Tennessee also finished the regular season at 8-4 with their best game a 51-49 win over currently ranked #16 Marshall and their worst performance a 10-37 loss to currently ranked #66 BYU. Like Navy, the Blue Raiders have played against an "easier" strength of schedule as compared to the "league" average, and has a nearly identical SOS to Navy's. Looking at the Blue Raiders from the model's perspective, we see that Middle Tennessee currently is the #46 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with currently the #42 ranked offense and #60 ranked defense - all above average.
Given Middle Tennessee's greater production, the model would "predict" that Middle Tennessee will be victorious over Navy in today's Armed Forces Bowl.