|Idaho Potato Bowl 2013|
Buffalo is currently 8-4 playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) than the league average (i.e. within one standard deviation of the "league" mean SOS). The Bulls's best win (victory over highest current ranked opponent) was against #73 currently ranked Ohio, and their worst loss was to #48 Toledo. The Bulls currently ranks as the #38 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with a top 25 defense (#21 ranked offense) and the #55 ranked offense.
San Diego State is currently 7-5 at the end of the regular season, while playing against an average SOS. San Diego State's best game was a 34-31 victory against currently ranked #35 Boise State late in the season, with their worst loss to FCS Eastern Illinois, which I rank as one spot lower than the worst team, which is why it is #126 in the chart above. San Diego State is currently the #92 ranked team in total production, with the #90 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.
Given that Buffalo has been more productive this season than San Diego State, the model "predicts" that Buffalo will be the victor in this year's Idaho Potato Bowl.