NCAA FBS Bowl Eligible Teams Not Invited

By my count (and ESPN's) this season 80 of the 125 NCAA FBS teams were eligible to play in a post-season bowl (with Penn State on probation).  There are only 35 post-season bowls this season, allowing only 70 team to play in bowl games.  This means that ten teams are "on the outside looking in" this bowl season.  So I thought that I would look at the teams that did not get a bowl invitation from the viewpoint of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

First, here are the ten teams that did not merit an invitation.

Team	Conf	W	L	PF	PA	SOS	Rank	Off	Def
Western Ky.	SunBelt	8	4	370	295	87.33	45	42	59
Toledo	MidAmerican	7	5	396	343	65.58	50	35	78
Fla. Atlantic	CUSA	6	6	317	267	68.83	51	72	22
South Ala.	SunBelt	6	6	353	302	82.25	56	63	41
UTSA	CUSA	7	5	307	316	63.58	63	57	73
San Jose St.	MountainWest	6	6	389	421	67.75	75	47	107
Texas St.	SunBelt	6	6	287	328	85.00	80	104	47
Troy	SunBelt	6	6	409	431	75.58	84	52	113
Central Mich.	MidAmerican	6	6	279	343	80.75	92	95	83
La.-Monroe	SunBelt	6	6	267	362	66.92	97	96	89

As you can see none of the ten teams comes from an automatic qualifying conference, and half come from the Sun Belt Conference.  Three teams are relatively new to the Football Bowl Subdivision (South Alabama, UT-San Antonio, and Texas State) and only three teams were above a 0.500 winning percentage - with Western Kentucky at 8-4 and the most productive of those left behind.

What about the lowest ten ranked teams in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model? They are listed below.

Team	Conf	W	L	PF	PA	SOS	Rank	Off	Def
UNLV	MountainWest	7	5	375	378	80.00	68	61	77
Minnesota	Big10	8	4	317	268	62.50	69	84	46
Pittsburgh	ACC	6	6	312	326	66.83	70	80	49
Syracuse	ACC	6	6	274	313	63.08	72	85	48
Ohio	MidAmerican	7	5	336	320	71.50	73	69	76
Washington St.	P12	6	6	358	375	56.58	79	65	97
Navy	Ind	7	4	378	304	78.36	82	99	57
Notre Dame	Ind	8	4	325	275	58.42	85	111	39
San Diego St.	MountainWest	7	5	338	388	76.92	87	88	88
Rutgers	AAC	6	6	329	358	68.33	91	83	96

Of the teams in the last ten, five come from current automatic qualifying conferences, two are independent, two come from the Mountain West and one from the Mid American conference.  As you can see when comparing the two tables by overall production (Rank), half of the teams that did not make it to a bowl game are more productive than the highest ranked team (UNLV) of those that did.

I understand that bowl invitations are not about production, but about making a profit (and conference affiliation), so I do not want you to think that I am complaining; rather just providing some perspective on those who were awarded a bowl appearance and those who did not.