|Las Vegas Bowl 2013|
The Fresno State Bulldogs finished the regular season at 11-1 playing an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) than compared to the "league" as a whole. A team's SOS is considered easier if it is between one and two standard deviations greater than the average SOS for the "league" which is the case for Fresno State. Fresno State's best game (win over highest ranked team) was a 24-17 victory over #24 currently ranked Utah State in the Mountain West Conference Championship game at the end of the regular season. The week before resulted in Fresno State's only loss which was a 52-62 defeat to currently ranked #76 San Jose State. Fresno State currently is the #17 ranked team in terms of overall production with the #7 most productive offense and the #75 ranked defense.
USC finished the regular season at 9-4 playing against an "average" SOS. USC's best game this season was a 17-14 victory over currently ranked #24 Utah State and the Trojans worst game was a 10-14 loss to currently ranked #85 Notre Dame. USC in terms of the production model is currently the #43 ranked team in total production with the #51 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense.
Since Fresno State has been more productive this season than Southern California, the model "predicts" that Fresno State will be the victor in this years Las Vegas Bowl.