Saturday, December 21, 2013

Las Vegas Bowl 2013

The second bowl game this year is the Las Vegas Bowl which has the Fresno State Bulldogs of the Mountain West Conference against the University of Southern California (USC) Trojans of the Pacific Athletic Conference.  Here is the analysis of each team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Below is a quick table for the Las Vegas Bowl this year.  As you can see the Bulldogs have a better offense and the Trojans have a better defense.  Each team's best victory is against the same team (Utah State).

Las Vegas Bowl 2013

Bulldogs Trojans
Wins 11 9
Losses 1 4
Total 17 43
Offense 7 51
Defense 75 42
SOS 85.75 67.08
Best 24 24
Worst 76 85

The Fresno State Bulldogs finished the regular season at 11-1 playing an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) than compared to the "league" as a whole.  A team's SOS is considered easier if it is between one and two standard deviations greater than the average SOS for the "league" which is the case for Fresno State.  Fresno State's best game (win over highest ranked team) was a 24-17 victory over #24 currently ranked Utah State in the Mountain West Conference Championship game at the end of the regular season.  The week before resulted in Fresno State's only loss which was a 52-62 defeat to currently ranked #76 San Jose State.  Fresno State currently is the #17 ranked team in terms of overall production with the #7 most productive offense and the #75 ranked defense.

USC finished the regular season at 9-4 playing against an "average" SOS.  USC's best game this season was a 17-14 victory over currently ranked #24 Utah State and the Trojans worst game was a 10-14 loss to currently ranked #85 Notre Dame.  USC in terms of the production model is currently the #43 ranked team in total production with the #51 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense.

Since Fresno State has been more productive this season than Southern California, the model "predicts" that Fresno State will be the victor in this years Las Vegas Bowl.

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