Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Hawai'i Bowl 2013

First - let me wish those celebrating a very Merry Christmas!

This year in the Hawai'i Bowl we have the Boise State Broncos of the Mountain West Conference facing the Oregon State Beavers of the Pacific Athletic Conference.  So here is the analysis of the Hawai'i Bowl using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model as of the end of the NCAA FBS regular season.
Hawai'i Bowl 2013

Broncos Beavers
Wins 8 6
Losses 4 6
Total 35 54
Offense 22 26
Defense 65 86
SOS 71.42 68.92
Best 24 80
Worst 92 126

The Boise State Broncos are currently 8-4 while playing against an average strength of schedule (SOS).  Boise State's best game (win over highest ranked team) was over currently ranked #24 Utah State and the Broncos worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was to currently ranked #92 San Diego State University.  In terms of overall production, the Broncos are currently ranked as the #35 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #22 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense.

Oregon State is currently 6-6 with a five game losing streak.  The Beavers have played an average SOS.  Oregon State's best game was a win over #80 ranked Utah (yes all six wins are over teams in the bottom 35% of the production model) and their worst loss was to FCS Eastern Washington at the beginning of the season.  Oregon State is currently ranked as the #54 team in total production, with the #26 offense and the #86 ranked defense.

Boise State is the more productive team this season, so the model "predicts" that the Boise State Broncos will be victorious over Oregon State in this year's Hawai'i Bowl.

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