|R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl 2013|
|Rajan Cajuns||Green Wave|
Tulane finished the regular season at 7-5, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" as a whole. An average strength of schedule is one in which the calculated SOS is within one standard deviation from the "league" average. Tulane's best game during the regular season was a 36-33 victory over currently ranked #23 East Carolina, and their worst game was a blowout (17-52) to currently ranked #74 Syracuse. Other than the Syracuse loss, Tulane's losses are against teams that are currently ranked higher then the Green Wave, and Tulane has defeated two teams (East Carolina and North Texas) who are ranked higher in the production model. Currently Tulane is the #70 ranked team in overall production, with the #101 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense.
Louisiana-Lafayette finished the regular season at 8-4, playing against an "easier" SOS as compared to the rest of the "league". If a team's SOS is between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average, then I conclude the team has had an easier SOS. The Rajun Cajuns best game was a victory over currently ranked #36 Western Kentucky and their worst loss was to currently ranked #103 Louisiana-Monroe. The Rajun Cajuns are currently the #42 team in overall production with the #41 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense.
Given that Louisiana-Lafayette is more productive than Tulane, the "model" predicts that Louisiana-Lafayette will win the New Orleans Bowl this year.