Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Texas A&M Head Coach Contract Extension

Texas A&M has extended head football coach Kevin Sumlin's contract for six years.  Given this development, here is the analysis of the Texas A&M football team under Sumlin's tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Let's start with the current year at the point of the season when the announcement was made that head coach Sumlin's contract was extended to 2019.

At the time of the announcement, Texas A&M was 8-3 (now 8-4).  The Aggies best victory (victory over the highest ranked team in the NCAA FBS Production Model) was over #40 ranked Rice at the beginning of the season.  In terms of losses, the Aggies have lost to three teams at the time of the contract extension - all in the NCAA FBS Top 25 - #5 Alabama, #22 Auburn and #16 LSU (at the time of the contract extension announcement).  The Aggies have played against an average strength of schedule and were the #23 most productive team overall with the #4 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense.  Yes, Texas A&M's defense is in the bottom 25 of all FBS teams in the nation.  This should be a concern for Aggies fans moving towards the bowl season, especially if the Aggies draw Clemson in the Chick-fil-A bowl.

In Sumlin's first year as head football coach and Texas A&M's first season in the SEC the Aggies had a remarkable season.  The Aggies finished the regular season at 10-2 - with a statement victory over #1 University of Alabama and a Cotton Bowl victory over #23 Oklahoma (as predicted by the model).  The Aggies two losses were both to team ranked in the top 15 overall (#13 Florida and #14 LSU).  While the Aggies played against an average strength of schedule (59.85 vs the "league's" 65.53) the Aggies ended up as the #7 team in the nation in terms of overall productivity and the #2 team on offense and the #47 ranked team on defense.  Overall, an excellent entry into the SEC, a great tribute to coach Sumlin's talents and confirmation that Texas A&M's athletic director made good choices by hiring coach Sumlin.

I will come back to Texas A&M in a few years to look at the Aggies before and after Sumlin's hiring to get a feel of how things have changed over time at Kyle Field.

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