Friday, December 6, 2013

2013 Mid American Conference Championship Game

It is NCAA FBS conference championship weekend and to kick off championship weekend is the Mid American Conference game pitting the Bowling Green Falcons and the Northern Illinois Huskies.  So here is the analysis of the game using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Bowling Green is currently 9-3 playing against an "easier" strength of schedule as compare to the "league" average.  Bowling Green's best victory of the season was against currently ranked #40 Buffalo.  All of the other eight victories were against teams that are ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of overall production.  Bowling Green's worst loss was a 10-42 decision against currently ranked #75 Indiana.  As of last weekend, Bowling Green was ranked #14 overall in terms of overall production, with the #27 most productive offense and the #9 most productive defense.

Northern Illinois is currently 12-0 playing against a "much easier" strength of schedule as compare to the "league" average, meaning that the Huskies schedule strength is greater than two standard deviations higher than the "average".  Northern Illinois best win was a 48-27 over currently ranked #17 Ball State.  Only two of the other eleven wins were against teams ranked in the top half of the college football complex invasion sport production model.  The Huskies are currently ranked as the #8 ranked team in overall production and has the #6 ranked offense and the #41 defense.

So the key to me is who plays better - the Falcons defense or the Huskies offense.

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