|Military Bowl 2013|
Below is a more detailed analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The Marshall Thundering Herd finished the regular season at 9-4 playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average - meaning that Marshall's SOS is between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average. The Thundering Herd's best game of the season was a victory over currently ranked #23 East Carolina and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #73 Ohio. Marshall currently has the #16 ranked team overall, with currently the #9 most productive offense in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision and the #64 most productive defense.
Maryland finished the season at 7-5 win their best game a win over #39 Virginia Tech, and the only victory against a team currently ranked in the top half of the CICFPM. All of the other six victories are against teams ranked in the bottom 25% of teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Terrapins worst performance came against currently ranked #83 Wake Forest in a loss. Maryland, like Marshall, also played against an "easier" SOS. Maryland currently ranks as the #59 team in overall production, with the #72 offense and the #39 defense.
From the viewpoint of the CICFPM, Marshall is more productive than Maryland, and thus the model "predicts" that Marshall will be the winner in this year's Military Bowl.