Thursday, December 12, 2013

Florida State Extends Head Football Coach Contract

ESPN reports that Florida State has extended head football coach Jimbo Fisher's contract.  Here I will take a look at Florida State from the perspective of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Those that have been following this blog know that the model that I use has ranked Florida State in the top 25 for all four years under head football coach Jimbo Fisher.  Below is a chart of the Noles under head football coach Fisher and below that are some of the details.

To me the biggest knock on FSU this year is their lack of improvement.  (I'M KIDDING!  Not much room to improve from #2 last year!)  As you can tell in the chart above, Florida State is a phenomenally productive team this year.  Florida State in terms of overall productivity is the #1 team in the nation, and has been the number one team since week 12 of the season.  The Seminoles have been in the top 25 in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for each week this season - a claim that neither Auburn or Alabama can make.  For all the comments about Florida State's schedule, they have played an "average" strength of schedule - meaning that the calculated SOS is within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Yes, it is above average (75.85 for FSU vs. 67.08 for the "league"), but their are at least 21 other teams that have easier schedules than Florida State.  To date, Florida State's best victory was a 51-14 over currently ranked #14 Clemson in "Death Valley".

In terms of absolute production, the model has Florida State as 35% then the #2 ranked Baylor Bears!  Now this is going to change after the bowl games are in the books, but this differential is more than two times the amount of either of the two Alabama "championship" teams.  As I said - this is a phenomenally productive football team.

The Seminoles took another leap forward, this time finishing as the #2 ranked team in overall production, with the #6 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense, all playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  Florida State finished the regular season at 11-2, and with their victory over Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl finished at 12-2.  The biggest blemish on FSU was a one point defeat to #69 ranked North Carolina State early in October.

In Fisher's second year, the Seminoles improved their relative production, by finishing as the #14 ranked team in overall production even though their offensive productivity dropped to #45.  The Seminoles defense is what substantially helped the team with a #4 ranking.  Florida State played against an "average" strength of schedule for the 2011 season and finished the regular season at 8-4, and finished overall at 9-4 with a win over Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Jimbo Fisher's first season as head football coach resulted in a 9-4 regular season record, and finished 10-4 after defeating South Carolina 26-17 in the Chick-fil-A bowl. The Seminoles played against a "tougher" than average schedule yet finished as the #23 ranked team in the FBS in terms of overall production, with the #31 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense.  FSU's worst loss was to #38 North Carolina and their best win was over #28 Maryland.

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