Boise State finished the regular season undefeated at 12-0, but lost in the Poinsettia Bowl to #6 ranked TCU 16-17 to finish overall at 12-1. The Broncos played against an "easier" strength of schedule than compared to the "league" average, which is a schedule that is between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average. Boise State's best game was a 37-32 victory over #19 ranked Oregon State. Boise State finished as the #7 ranked team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #15 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense. This was an another excellent team.
Boise State had another fantastic year improving on their previous season by finishing the regular season undefeated at 13-0 and defeating #3 ranked TCU in the Fiesta Bowl 17-10. Even though Boise State beat TCU and was undefeated, they finished ranked #4 in the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, just behind the TCU Horned Frogs. In terms of the rankings, as I just said the Broncos were the #4 ranked team in all of the FBS with the #2 ranked offense and the #20 ranked defense. So while the Broncos performance improved in the win/loss columns, overall production rank and offensive production rank, they slipped a little on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos played against an "average" strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league" and also defeated the #15 ranked Oregon Ducks 19-8 at the beginning of the season. If 2008 was an excellent team, this team was even better!
Boise State again improved their relative ranking this season to finish as the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as the #1 team in total production. While they were not the best offense (finished ranked #5) nor the best defense (finished ranked #6) compared to the rest of the teams in college football, they were the most productive when considering both sides of the ball. Boise State finished at 12-1 with their only loss to #7 ranked Nevada in overtime. Their best game of their season was a 33-30 victory over #19 Virginia Tech at the beginning of the season. The Broncos played against an "average" strength of schedule as compared to the "league"; that being plus or minus one standard deviation from the "league" mean SOS as were 82 other schools in the FBS. Frankly, this was one of the best teams in all of college football since 2008.
Another year; another great team. The Broncos finished the regular season at 11-1 with their only loss a home loss to #9 ranked TCU by one point; to be snubbed for a BCS game and play in the Las Vegas Bowl where they crushed #62 ranked Arizona State 56-24. Their best game against was a 35-21 victory over #21 Georgia at the beginning of the season. The Broncos played an "average" SOS and finished as the #6 ranked team in total production, with the #9 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense. While not as good as the previous season, this marks the fourth straight season that they finished in the top 10 in terms of overall production.
The 2012 season marks the first time since 2007 that the Broncos lost two regular season games (Michigan State and San Diego State) to finish the regular season at 10-2 bringing the Broncos back to the Las Vegas Bowl where they defeated the #59 Washington Huskies 28-26 to finish overall at 11-2. Boise State played against an "easier" strength of schedule, with their best win over #11 Fresno State. Looking at the production rankings, the Broncos finished as the #10 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #38 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense, marking the fifth straight season with a top 10 ranked team in production.
In terms of won/loss record, this has been Boise State's worst season under Petersen; finishing the regular season at 8-4. Boise State plays today in the Hawai'i Bowl against Oregon State, and is "predicted" to win the Hawai'i Bowl given they are more productive than the Beavers. To date, the Broncos have played against an average strength of schedule as compare to the "league" average, and of course will improve by playing against a team that should finished ranked above average after this game today. Boise State's best game (win over highest ranked team) was over currently ranked #24 Utah State and the Broncos worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was to currently ranked #92 San Diego State University. In terms of overall production, the Broncos are currently ranked as the #35 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #22 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense. As you can see above, this is by far the poorest performance by the Broncos under Petersen's tenure.
2006 and 2007 - while I do not have all the data I need to run the model, these were both very good teams, finishing at 13-0 in 2006 and 10-3 in 2007.
Additionally, compared to other FBS coaches, Boise State got a bargain with Petersen in terms of salary. Here is his salary paid by the school since 2006 (except) for 2008 from USA Today's NCAA football salary database.
Analysis of 2013 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Texas and Mack Brown
Washington and Steve Sarkisian
Wake Forest and Jim Grobe
Wyoming and Dave Christensen
Eastern Michigan and Ron English
Florida Atlantic and Carl Pelini
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen