Florida Atlantic University Head Football Coach Resigns

The Sun-Sentinel reports that Florida Atlantic University head football coach Carl Pelini (and defensive coordinator Pete Rekstis) have resigned over allegations of illegal drug use. According to College Football Talk, this could result in Carl Pelini paying $500,000 in damages - if pursued by FAU.  While there is a great deal of speculation with regard to this unfortunate incident, let's take a look at the Florida Atlantic University Owls under now former head football coach Carl Pelini's who was hired at the end of the 2011 season and also take a look at the Owls during Howard Schnellenberger's last four seasons (2008-2011) as the Owls head coach. (I am stopping the analysis in the approximated last third of Schnellenberger's tenure at FAU since that is as far back as I have complete data to analyze team performance using the model at hand).

For a quick look at the Owls in terms of total team production ranking, offensive production ranking and defensive production ranking take a look at the graph below.

A more detailed analysis of the Florida Atlantic Owls follows below using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
At the end of last weekend Florida Atlantic was 2-6 with their best win (win over highest currently ranked opponent) over #92 University of Alabama-Birmingham and their worst loss (loss to lowest currently ranked opponent) to #86 ranked Middle Tennessee State.  FAU is ranked as the #101 team in overall productivity (out of 125) with the #105 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense.  The Owls have played against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 54.75 which was "tougher" than the average schedule to date for the "league".  A teams SOS is "tougher" if it is lower than between one and two standard deviations from the average "league" SOS, which is currently the case.

2012
In former head coach Carl Pelini's first season at the helm of the FAU Owls, the Owls finished 3-9 and were the #110 ranked team in terms of overall productivity with the #112 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense against an average SOS of 66.08.  The Owls best game was a 37-28 home win over #56 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst performance was a 34-37 loss to #112 South Alabama.
 
2011
In Howard Schnellenberger's last season as head football coach the Owls finished 1-11.  Florida Atlantic was the #120 (out of 124) ranked NCAA FBS team in overall production, with the dead last ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense.  Florida Atlantic's best (and only) victory was a 38-35 victory over #117 ranked UAB and the Owls' worst performance was a 14-38 loss to #118 ranked Middle Tennessee State.  The Owls played against an easier SOS of 72.42 as compared to the "league" SOS of 63.24.

2010
The Owls finished the regular season at 4-8.  The Owls were the #98 ranked team in terms of overall productivity; with the #109 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense.  The Owls played against a SOS of 74.92, which is easier (i.e. between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS of 63.10).

2009
Florida Atlantic finished the season at 5-7.  FAU's best win was over #87 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette and of their worst loss was to #105 Wyoming all against a SOS that was easier than the average SOS for the "league".  In terms of overall production, Florida Atlantic University was the #85 ranked team with the #50 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense.

2008
The Florida Atlantic University Owls finished the regular season bowl eligible at 6-6 and won their bowl game over #63 ranked Central Michigan to finish with a winning record at 7-6.  The Owls were the #82 ranked team in overall productivity with the #48 ranked offense and the #103 ranked defense, while playing against an easier SOS as compared to the "league".  The Owls best performance was against #63 ranked Central Michigan and their worst loss was to #76 ranked Middle Tennessee State.

This is the fourth NCAA FBS head football coaching change to date (that I know).  Here is the analysis of the previous coaching changes this season using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen