Below is a chart of the team's overall productivity ranking, their offensive production ranking and their defensive production ranking from 2008 to last week using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. As you can see, Connecticut has been declining over the last five seasons. In the three seasons under Pasqualoni the team has been below average in each season overall. The bright spot was the defensive performance by UConn last season. If you are interested, I have a more detailed analysis of UConn's football performance below using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
As of last weekend, the Huskies were 0-4 playing against an average strength of schedule (SOS) of 71.50 as compared to the "league" as a whole, SOS = 75.68. [I define all teams that are within one standard deviation of the league SOS as average]. UConn is the #104 most productive team overall with the #119 most productive offense and the #60 most productive defense. Given Connecticut's decline the university decided to fire their head coach. What will be interesting to see is if this change fundamentally changes the Huskie's performance. I doubt there will be any real change this season; but this question will best be answered in a few years - in which I plan to come back to and analyze.
The Connecticut Huskies played against a SOS = 61.50, which was average as compared to the league strength of schedule of 65.53. In the wins/loss column, UConn finished the regular season again at 5-7, with their best win (win over highest ranked opponent using the NCAA FBS Production Model) was a 23-20 victory over Big East rival #27 ranked Louisville, and their worse loss was (14-17) to #104 ranked Temple. Overall, the Huskies were ranked as the #70 team in overall production, with the #108 ranked offense and #12 ranked defense. The team performed slightly better overall than in the previous season mainly due to the jump in their defensive productivity.
Paul Pasqualoni's first year as the head coach for the UConn Huskies, the Huskies finished the regular season at 5-7. Connecticut finished the season as the #79 most productive team using the NCAA FBS Production model, with the #101 most productive offense and the #56 most productive defense. UConn played an average SOS = 62.75 compared to the average for the "league" of 64.29. For this season, UConn's best win was a 16-10 decision over #30 ranked Big East rival #30 Southern Florida and their worst loss (20-24) was to #112 ranked Iowa State.
In Randy Edsall's last year as the head coach for the Huskies, UConn finished the regular season at 8-4, and again finished at 8-5 with a bowl loss to #12 Oklahoma. Connecticut finished as the #53 most productive team with the #62 most productive offense and the #41 most productive defense, which is similar in terms of productivity as compared to the 2009 season. The Huskies played against an average SOS of 62.92 compared to the league average of 63.10. The Huskies best win was a 16-13 victory over #15 ranked West Virginia and their worst loss was again to the #93 ranked Rutgers 24-27.
Connecticut finished again at 8-5, including a 20-7 bowl victory over #57 ranked South Carolina. The Huskies played against a SOS of 56.69 which was average as compare to the "league" as a whole. Connecticut was the #46 most productive team overall with the #48 most productive offense and the #48 most productive defense, all less productive than the previous year. UConn's best win was a 23-16 victory over #38 Ohio and their worst loss (10-12) was again to the University of North Carolina who finished ranked at #33 in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
For the first year in which I have a complete set of data to use for the NCAA FBS Production Model, UConn finished 8-5, including a bowl victory over #61 ranked Buffalo. Connecticut was the #26 ranked team in the nation in terms of overall on-field productivity, with the #36 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense in the "league". The Huskies best win was over #31 ranked Cincinnati (40-16) and their worst loss was to #47 ranked North Carolina. UConn played against an average SOS = 59.31 as compared to a 62.92 SOS for the "league" as a whole.