Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Eastern Michigan University Head Football Coach Relieved of Duties

CBS Sports reports that Eastern Michigan University head football coach Ron English has been relieved of his duties.  This makes the fifth head coaching change so far this season.  Using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, let's take a look at the Eastern Michigan University Eagles under former head coach English's tenure.  Here is how the Eagles have ranked since 2009, with more details below this graph.

At the end of the first weekend in November, Eastern Michigan University was 1-8 with their best (and only) win (win over highest currently ranked opponent) over Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) Howard and their worst loss (loss to lowest currently ranked opponent) to #80 ranked Rutgers University.  The Eagles were ranked as the #119 team in overall productivity (out of 125) with the #94 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense.  The Eagles have played against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 54.22 which was "tougher" than the average schedule to date for the "league".  A teams SOS is "tougher" if it is lower than between one and two standard deviations from the average "league" SOS, which is currently the case.

The Eagles finished 2-10 and were the #116 ranked team in terms of overall productivity with the #110 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense against an average SOS of 65.75.  Eastern Michigan's best game was a 29-23 away win over #65 ranked Western Michigan and their worst performance was a 14-31 loss to FCS Illinois State.

Eastern Michigan University finished 6-6 and while they had six wins, which normally would make them bowl eligible, two of those victories were against FCS teams and according to NCAA rules only one victory over an FCS school counts towards bowl eligibility, thus EMU did not receive a bowl game invitation.  EMU was the #72 ranked NCAA FBS team in overall production, with the #86 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense.  Eastern Michigan's best victory was a 14-10 victory over #52 ranked Western Michigan University and the Eagles worst performance was a 31-33 loss to #105 ranked Ball State.  The Eagles played against an easier SOS of 73.67 as compared to the "league" SOS of 63.24.

Eastern Michigan Univeristy finished the regular season at 2-10.  The Eagles were the #117 ranked team in terms of overall productivity; with the #111 ranked offense and the #119 ranked defense.  Eastern Michigan University played against a SOS of 61.42, which is "average" (i.e. within one  standard deviation of the "league" average SOS of 63.10).

The Eagles finished the season at 0-12.  EMU's worst loss was to #110 Ball State all against a SOS that was average as compared to the average SOS for the "league".  In terms of overall production, Eastern Michigan University was the #113 ranked team with the #113 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense.

2013 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Florida Atlantic and Carl Pelini
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen

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