Chick-fil-A Bowl 2013

In this years Chick-fil-A bowl we have the Texas A&M Aggies of the SEC playing the Duke Blue Devils of the ACC.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Chick-fil-A Bowl 2013
	Aggies	Blue Devils
Wins	8	10
Losses	4	3
Total	28	65
Offense	6	46
Defense	101	88
SOS	53.50	68.92
Best	33	39
Worst	25	63

Duke finished the regular season at 10-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The best game was against currently ranked #39 Virginia Tech and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #63 Pittsburgh.  Duke finished the regular season as the currently ranked #65 team in total production and the #46 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense.

Texas A&M finished the regular season at  8-4 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule.  The Aggies best game was against #33 Rice and their worst game was against #25 Auburn.  Texas A&M currently has the #6 most productive offense but only the #101 ranked defense leading the #28 ranked team production overall.

Texas A&M is more productive than Duke so the model "predicts" that Texas A&M will be the winner of the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl 2013

AutoZone Liberty Bowl has the Rice Owls of Conference USA against Mississippi State Bulldogs of the SEC.   Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Liberty Bowl 2013
	Owls	Bulldogs
Wins	10	6
Losses	3	6
Total	33	47
Offense	40	58
Defense	34	35
SOS	73.00	46.42
Best	16	10
Worst	34	25

The Rice Owls finished the regular season at 10-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  Rice's best game this season was 41-24 victory over currently ranked #16 Marshall in the Conference USA championship game and their worst game was a 16-28 loss to currently ranked #34 North Texas.  So of their three losses, all were to teams in the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model top 40.  In terms of overall production the Owls finished the regular season as the #33 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #40 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense.  Overall, an excellent showing for the Owls this season.

Mississippi State finished the regular season at 6-6 playing against the second most difficult strength of schedule this season.  The Bulldogs SOS was "much tougher" than the "league" average, meaning that their SOS was more than two standard deviations lower than the league average.  The Bulldogs best game was a victory over currently ranked #10 Bowling Green and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #25 Auburn.  Think about that.  The Bulldogs have played seven team that are currently ranked in the top 25 of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  In terms of on-field production, the Bulldogs are currently ranked as the #47 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision with the currently ranked #58 offense and #35 ranked defense.

Given that Rice is ranked higher than Mississippi State, the model "predicts" that Rice will be victorious in the Liberty Bowl.

Sun Bowl 2013

The Sun Bowl this year has the UCLA Bruins of the Pac 12 Conference playing the Virginia Tech Hokies of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Sun Bowl 2013
	Hokies	Bruins
Wins	8	9
Losses	4	3
Total	39	32
Offense	97	33
Defense	5	40
SOS	55.08	61.58
Best	16	12
Worst	72	29

UCLA finished the regular season at 9-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Bruins best game was a win over currently ranked #12 Washington and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #29 Stanford.  On the field, UCLA currently has the #32 most productive team overall with the #33 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense.

Virginia Tech finished at 8-4 playing a "tougher" strength of schedule. The Hokies best game was a win over currently ranked #16 Marshall and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #72 Boston College.  On the field, the Hokies currently have the #39 most productive team in the FBS with the #97 ranked offense and the #5 defense.

Given that UCLA is more productive, the model "predicts" that UCLA will be the winner of the Sun Bowl.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl 2013

The AdvoCare V100 Bowl pits the Arizona Wildcats of the Pacific Athletic Conference against the Boston College Eagles of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Here is some information about these two teams regular season in anticipation of this game today using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Below is quick view table of these two teams during this season and then after is more details and a "prediction".

AdvoCare V100 Bowl 2013
	Wildcats	Eagles
Wins	7	7
Losses	5	5
Total	56	72
Offense	57	66
Defense	58	69
SOS	62.58	67.67
Best	5	39
Worst	81	74

The Arizona Wildcats finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS). The Wildcats best game this season (win over highest ranked team) was a 42-16 victory over currently ranked #5 Oregon; and their worst performance (loss over lowest ranked team) was a 17-24 loss to currently ranked #81 Washington State.  On the field Arizona is currently the #56 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the currently ranked #57 offense and #58 defense.


Boston College also finished 7-5, while also playing against an "average" SOS.  The Eagles best game was a 34-27 victory over currently ranked #39 Virginia Tech, and their worst performance was a 31-34 defeat by currently ranked #74 Syracuse.   On the field, the Eagles currently are the #72 most productive team in the FBS, with the currently ranked #66 offense and #69 defense - both just a little below average as compared to the rest of the "league".

 We have two very similar teams in that each has a great running back and each has played a similar schedule with similar results but Arizona has been slightly more productive on both sides of the ball as compared to Boston College.  Thus the model "predicts" that Arizona will be the winner of the AdvoCare V100 Bowl game this year.

Holiday Bowl 2013

In the Holiday Bowl we have the Arizona State Sun Devils of the Pac 12 Conference playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders of the Big 12 Conference.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Holiday Bowl 2013
	Sun Devils	Red Raiders
Wins	10	7
Losses	3	5
Total	22	71
Offense	19	43
Defense	41	97
SOS	56.92	68.58
Best	8	69
Worst	85	57

Arizona State finished the regular season at 10-3 (including a loss to Stanford in the Pac 12 Conference championship game) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  ASU's best game was that controversial finish against currently ranked #8 Wisconsin and their worst game was a defeat to currently ranked #85 Notre Dame. In terms of production, ASU is currently the #22 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.  They have the #19 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense.

Texas Tech finished the regular season at 7-5 also playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Red Raiders best game was a win against currently ranked #69 TCU and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #57 Texas.  Texas Tech started at 7-0 (all against teams that were below average) and lost the last five games (all against teams that were above average).  On the field, the Red Raiders are currently the #71 most productive team in the FBS and their offense is currently ranked as the #43 team and their defense is currently ranked #97.

The model "predicts" that Arizona State will be victorious in tonight's Holiday Bowl.

Alamo Bowl 2013

The Alamo Bowl pits the Oregon Ducks of the Pac 12 against the Texas Longhorns of the Big 12 in head football coach Mack Brown's final game at the helm of the Longhorns.  (Here are more details of the Longhorns under Brown since 2008).  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Alamo Bowl 2013
	Ducks	Longhorns
Wins	10	8
Losses	2	4
Total	5	57
Offense	4	67
Defense	22	48
SOS	74.08	65.17
Best	12	30
Worst	56	66

Oregon finished the regular season at10-2 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS).  The Ducks best game was a win against currently ranked #12 Washington and their worst performance was a loss against currently ranked #56 Arizona.  The Ducks currently have the #5 ranked team in total production with the #4 most productive offense and the #22 ranked defense.

Texas finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Longhorns best game was a win in the Red River Rivalry over currently ranked #30 Oklahoma and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #66 BYU.  The Longhorn currently have the #57 ranked in total production with the #67 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense.

Look for Oregon to be the victor in the Alamo Bowl today.

Music City Bowl 2013

The Music City Bowl pits the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets of the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Mississippi Rebels of the South Eastern Conference.  So let's take a look at each team during this season to see how each compares for this game using the College Football Complex Invasion Sport Production Model.  Below is a quick "tale of the tape" between the two schools, with the details after the table.

Music City Bowl 2013
	Jackets	Rebels
Wins	7	7
Losses	5	5
Total	37	44
Offense	36	48
Defense	46	52
SOS	66.42	55.42
Best	49	9
Worst	66	47

Georgia Tech finished the regular season at 7-5. playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Yellow Jackets best game was a victory over currently ranked #49 North Carolina and their worst performance was against currently ranked #66 BYU.  The Yellow Jackets are currently ranked at #37 in total production and their offense is currently ranked #36 and their defense is currently ranked #46.

The Mississippi Rebels also finished the regular season at 7-5, playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule. The Rebels best game was against currently ranked #9 LSU and their worst game was against in-state rival currently ranked #47 Mississippi State.  Mississippi is currently ranked as the #44 team in total production with the #48 ranked offense and #52 ranked defense.

Given the regular season production between the two teams, Georgia Tech is "predicted" to be the winner of the Music City Bowl.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl 2013

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl pits the Navy Midshipmen (currently independent) against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders of Conference USA.  So let's take a look at each team during this season to see how each compares for this game using the College Football Complex Invasion Sport Production Model.  Below is a quick "tale of the tape" between the two schools, with the details after the table.

Armed Forces Bowl 2013
	Blue Raiders	Midshipmen
Wins	8	8
Losses	4	4
Total	46	68
Offense	42	77
Defense	60	51
SOS	78.00	79.33
Best	16	55
Worst	66	85

Navy finished the regular season with a win over rival Army to finish 8-4.  Navy's best game (win over highest ranked team using the model) was a 42-14 victory over #55 South Alabama and their worst performance (loss to lowest ranked team played) was a 34-38 defeat to #85 Notre Dame.  Overall, Navy played an "easier" strength of schedule as compared to the "league" on average, meaning that Navy's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league's" average SOS.  Compared to the other teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, Navy is slightly below average in overall production sitting at #68 in total production, with currently the #77 ranked offense.  On the bright side Navy has an above average defense, currently ranked as the #51 defense in the FBS.

Middle Tennessee also finished the regular season at 8-4 with their best game a 51-49 win over currently ranked #16 Marshall and their worst performance a 10-37 loss to currently ranked #66 BYU.  Like Navy, the Blue Raiders have played against an "easier" strength of schedule as compared to the "league" average, and has a nearly identical SOS to Navy's.  Looking at the Blue Raiders from the model's perspective, we see that Middle Tennessee currently is the #46 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with currently the #42 ranked offense and #60 ranked defense - all above average.

Given Middle Tennessee's greater production, the model would "predict" that Middle Tennessee will be victorious over Navy in today's Armed Forces Bowl.

NCAA FBS Head Coaches Salary Inequality

Last year I looked at NCAA bowl game payout inequality and this year I thought that I would turn my attention to NCAA FBS head coaches salary inequality.  One way that economists measure inequality is by using a Gini coefficient, and here is a step-by-step method of performing this calculation using Microsoft Excel which I gave to my freshmen college football seminar this year.  So using USA Today's NCAA FBS head coach salary database for the 2011 calendar year (excluding private schools and Temple and Pitt), I calculate the Gini coefficient for NCAA head football coaches to be equal to 0.407.  A Gini coefficient equal to zero is perfect equality and a Gini coefficient equal to one is perfect inequality.

NCAA head football coaches school pay is more equal than the US income distribution, which was 0.477 in 2011.

Russell Athletic Bowl 2013

The Louisville Cardinals of the American Athletic Conference face the Miami (FL) Hurricanes of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Russell Athletic Bowl 2013
	Cardinals	Hurricanes
Wins	11	9
Losses	1	3
Total	2	41
Offense	13	29
Defense	1	68
SOS	81.25	66.17
Best	21	37
Worst	20	65

The Louisville Cardinal finished the regular season at 11-1 playing against an "easier" strength of schedule than the "league" average.  The Cardinals best game was a victory over currently ranked #21 Cincinnati, and their worst game was against currently ranked #20 University of Central Florida.  Looking at their on-field production, the Cardinals are currently the #2 ranked team in overall production with the currently ranked #13 offense and the currently ranked #1 defense in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

The Miami Hurricanes finished the regular season at 9-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.   Miami's best game was a 45-30 victory over currently ranked #37 Georgia Tech and their worst game of the season was a 30-48 loss to #65 Duke.  Miami currently has the #41 ranked team in overall production, with the #29 most productive offense and the #68 most productive defense.

Using the CICFPM, the model "predicts" Louisville be the winner in today's Russell Athletic Bowl over Miami.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl 2013

Today we have the Kansas State Wildcats of the Big 12 Conference (which has 10 teams) playing the Michigan Wolverines of the Big 10 Conference (which has twelve teams).  Below is a table summarizing some of the results of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, with more details below the table below.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl 2013
	Wildcats	Wolverines
Wins	7	7
Losses	5	5
Total	31	45
Offense	39	65
Defense	29	23
SOS	71.92	60.92
Best	42	61
Worst	126	60

Kansas State Wildcats finished the regular season at 7-5, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) which means the calculated SOS is within plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average.  The Wildcats best game (win over highest ranked team) was to currently ranked #42 Louisiana-Lafayette, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was to FCS North Dakota State, and I "rank" all FCS schools at #126.

Michigan Wolverines finished the regular season also at 7-5 playing against an "average" SOS.  Michigan's best game was a win over currently ranked #61 Minnesota and their worst game was an overtime loss to currently ranked #60 Penn State.  The Wolverines currently have the #45 ranked team in terms of total production, with currently the #65 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense.

From the model's perspective, Kansas State is "predicted" to defeat Michigan in this years Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

Belk Bowl 2013

In this year's Belk bowl the Cincinnati Bearcats of the newly named American Athletic Conference will playing the Belk Bowl this year against the North Carolina Tarheels of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  So here is the analysis of these two teams using the College Football Complex Invasion Sport Production Model.

Belk Bowl 2013
	Bearcats	Tarheels
Wins	9	6
Losses	3	6
Total	21	49
Offense	28	50
Defense	19	55
SOS	88.33	60.67
Best	26	46
Worst	108	65

Cincinnati finished the regular season at 9-3, playing against a "much easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league".  For a team to have a "much easier" SOS the calculated must be greater than two standard deviations above the "leagues" average strength of schedule.  In fact, Cincinnati had the easiest SOS of all automatically qualifying conference teams this season.  Only two of twelve team's Cincinnati played are currently ranked above average (#26 Houston and #2 Louisville).  The Bearcats best game (victory over the highest ranked team) was over currently ranked #26 Houston and their worst game (defeat over the lowest ranked team) was a loss to currently ranked #108 South Florida.  In terms of on-field production, Cincinnati is the #21 ranked team in overall production, with the #28 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense.

North Carolina finished the regular season at 6-6 playing an "average" strength of schedule.  The Tarheels best game was against currently ranked #46 Middle Tennessee and their worst game was an end of season loss to currently ranked #65 Duke.  The Tarheels currently are ranked #49 in terms of total production, with the currently ranked #50 offense and currently ranked #55 defense.

Using the production model, Cincinnati is "predicted" to win this years Belk Bowl over North Carolina.

Pinstripe Bowl 2013

New Era Pinstripe Bowl has the Notre Dame fighting Irish (who are independent) will play in the Pinstripe Bowl against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights of the American Athletic Conference and soon to be of the Big 10 Conference.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 

Pinstripe Bowl 2013
	Fighting Irish	Scarlet Knights
Wins	8	6
Losses	4	6
Total	85	96
Offense	112	85
Defense	38	95
SOS	57.33	66.58
Best	7	82
Worst	63	93

Notre Dame finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an "average" strength of schedule.  Notre Dame's best game this season was a 17-13 victory over currently ranked #7 Michigan State and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #63 Pittsburgh.  In terms of overall production, this has not been a good team this year.  The Irish currently rank as the #85 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #112 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.  Seems as if the Irish sure do miss Golson.

Rutgers finished the season at 6-6 playing an "average" strength of schedule.  Rutger's best game was a victory over currently ranked #82 SMU and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #93 Connecticut.  As of this game, Rutger's is currently ranked as the #96 team in total production, with the #85 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense.

Frankly, I am going to skip this game, as it looks like the worst game of all of the bowl games this season.  Notre Dame's above average defense should have an advantage over Rutger's below average offense, with the ND offense and Rutger's defense each cancelling each other out.  Using the model, Notre Dame is more productive than Rutgers, so the model "predicts" that Notre Dame will be the winner in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Fight Hunger Bowl 2013

This year's Fight Hunger Bowl has the Brigham Young Cougars who are independent facing the University of Washington Huskies out of the Pac 12.  As you know, Washington has had a change in head coaches, with Steve Sarkisian leaving for USC and the Huskies hiring Boise State's former head coach, Chris Petersen.  Here is a look at the Washington Huskies under former head football coach Steve Sarkisian.  For a quick look, here is a table comparing the two teams at the end of the regular season in terms of wins, losses, total production, offensive production, defensive production, strength of schedule, and win against highest ranked opponent and loss to lowest ranked opponent.

Fight Hunger Bowl 2013
	Cougars	Huskies
Wins	8	8
Losses	4	4
Total	66	12
Offense	88	15
Defense	31	27
SOS	60.33	63.5
Best	24	35
Worst	106	32

Below is a more detailed analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model (CICFPM).

The BYU Cougars finished the regular season at 8-4 with their best win of the season (win over highest ranked team using the CICFPM) was against currently ranked #24 Utah State and their worst loss of the season (loss to lowest ranked team using the CICFPM) was to currently ranked #106 Virginia at the beginning of the season.  The Cougars have played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the rest of the "league" this season.  In terms of total production, BYU is currently ranked as the #66 team - which is slightly below average.  BYU's offense is also below average with a current ranking at #88 but their defense is above average; currently ranked at #31.

Washington also finished the season at 8-4.  Washington's best game was a win over currently ranked #35 Boise State and their worst loss was to #32 UCLA.  Another way of looking at this is that all of Washington's losses have been against teams that are currently ranked in the top 25% of the Football Bowl Subdivision.  The Huskies also have played an "average" SOS.  Looking at the Huskies production, they currently have the #12 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with currently the #15 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense. 

Given that Washington is more productive on both sides of the ball than BYU, the model "predicts" that Washington will be the victor in the Fight Hunger Bowl this year.

For analysis of previous Fight Hunger Bowls:

2012:  Arizona State defeated Navy as predicted by the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Minnesota Gopher Ave. Total Cost Per Football Player

The Minnesota Star's has an interesting story on the average cost of a student playing football at the University of Minnesota - which is almost $200,000 per year.  Whether this is a lot or not depends on the amount generated in terms of revenues for the football team, and revenues from football were greater than expenses - so while this may seem high, economically this expense is well under the average revenue per student playing football.

Texas Bowl 2013

In the Texas Bowl we have the Minnesota Golden Gophers of the Big 10 Conference playing the Syracuse Orangemen of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  For a quick overview of these two teams this season using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, see the table below.  More detailed analysis follows after the table below.

Texas Bowl 2013
	Golden Gophers	Orangemen
Wins	8	6
Losses	4	6
Total	61	74
Offense	83	91
Defense	33	44
SOS	62.83	63.33
Best	51	59
Worst	45	75

Minnesota finished the regular season at 8-4 with their best win over currently ranked #51 Nebraska and their worst loss to currently ranked #45 Michigan.  The Golden Gophers played against an "average" strength of schedule as compared to the "league" average, and currently have the #61 ranked team in terms of total production, with the #83 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense.

Syracuse finished the regular season at 6-6.  Their best game was a win over currently ranked #59 Maryland and their worse game was a loss to currently ranked #75 Northwestern.  The Orangemen also played against an average SOS, but are below average in terms of total production (#74 currently) as well as being below average on the offensive side of the ball (currently ranked #91), but are above average on defense, currently at #44.

Expect a low scoring game with two below average offenses against two above average defenses.  Look for Minnesota to be the winner of the Texas Bowl, as the model has the Minnesota Golden Gophers slightly more productive than Syracuse.

Military Bowl 2013

The Military Bowl has the Marshall Thundering Herd of Conference USA vs. the Maryland Terrapins of the Atlantic Coast Conference and soon to be of the Big 10 Conference next season.  In the table below, using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, we see that Marshall has been more productive than Maryland this season.

Military Bowl 2013
	Thundering Herd	Terrapins
Wins	9	7
Losses	4	5
Total	16	59
Offense	9	72
Defense	64	39
SOS	80.08	77.67
Best	23	39
Worst	73	83

Below is a more detailed analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

The Marshall Thundering Herd finished the regular season at 9-4 playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average - meaning that Marshall's SOS is between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average.  The Thundering Herd's best game of the season was a victory over currently ranked #23 East Carolina and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #73 Ohio.  Marshall currently has the #16 ranked team overall, with currently the #9 most productive offense in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision and the #64 most productive defense.

Maryland finished the season at 7-5 win their best game a win over #39 Virginia Tech, and the only victory against a team currently ranked in the top half of the CICFPM.  All of the other six victories are against teams ranked in the bottom 25% of teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision.  The Terrapins worst performance came against currently ranked #83 Wake Forest in a loss.  Maryland, like Marshall, also played against an "easier" SOS.   Maryland currently ranks as the #59 team in overall production, with the #72 offense and the #39 defense.

From the viewpoint of the CICFPM, Marshall is more productive than Maryland, and thus the model "predicts" that Marshall will be the winner in this year's Military Bowl.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl 2013

This years San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl has the Northern Illinois University Huskies of the Mid American Conference playing the Utah State Aggies of the Mountain West Conference.  Both teams lost their respective conference championship games and are looking to finish the post season with a win.  Here is some statistical analysis of these two teams during this season using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  As you can see from the table below, we should have a very competitive game tonight, with two teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 in terms of overall production.

Poinsettia Bowl 2013
	Aggies	Huskies
Wins	8	12
Losses	5	1
Total	24	14
Offense	47	5
Defense	11	83
SOS	74.08	84
Best	52	18
Worst	80	10

Northern Illinois finished the regular season (including the Mid American Conference Championship game) at 12-1.  The Huskies played against an "easier" strength of schedule as compared to the league average.  The Huskies best game (win over highest ranked team using the model linked above) was over currently ranked #18 Ball State and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team using the model linked at the top of this blog - and only loss) was to currently ranked #10 Bowling Green.  Northern Illinois is currently the #14 ranked team in overall production with the #5 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense.

Utah State finished the regular season (including the Mountain West Conference Championship game) at 8-5 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Aggies best game of the season was a win over currently ranked #52 Colorado State and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #80 Utah.  In terms of overall production, the Aggies are currently the #24 ranked team in total production with the #47 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense.

This game should be determined by whether Northern Illinois defense is more or less productive than Utah State's offense.  The other side NIU's offense and USU's defense should be a great battle, but statistically should be a very even match, so who get's the best of who when USU's offense vs. NIU's defense will be the part of the game I am most interested in watching.

While this should be a competitive game between Northern Illinois and Utah State, the model gives the edge to the Northern Illinois Huskies being victorious in the Poinsettia Bowl tonight.

Little Caesars Bowl 2013

Playing tonight in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl we have the Bowling Green Falcons of the Mid American Conference facing the Pittsburgh Panthers of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model to analyze this game we have the Falcons with more production on both sides of the ball against the Panthers who have played a more difficult schedule as compared to the Falcons.  In the table below we have a quick comparison of the two teams during the regular season, with more detailed analysis of each team after the table.

Little Caesars Bowl 2013
	Falcons	Panthers
Wins	10	6
Losses	3	6
Total	10	63
Offense	14	81
Defense	13	37
SOS	82	66.25
Best	14	65
Worst	77	68

Bowling Green finished the regular season (including the Mid American Conference Championship game) at 10-3.  The Falcons played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compare to the rest of the "league".  A team's schedule is called easier if statistically their strength of schedule is between on and two standard deviations greater than the "leagues" mean or average strength of schedule.  In this case Bowling Green SOS is greater than one standard deviation of the mean strength of schedule.  That said, Bowling Green has had a very good season, with their best game their win in the Mid American Conference Championship game over currently ranked #14 Northern Illinois and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #77 Indiana University.  Overall, the Falcons are currently ranked in the top 10 at #10 in total production, with the #14 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense.

Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 6-6 playing against an "average" SOS, which means that Pitt's SOS is plus or minus within one standard deviation of the "league" mean SOS.  For the Panthers, their best game was a win over currently ranked #65 Duke, and their worst loss was to currently ranked #68 Navy.  In terms of total production, the Panthers currently have the #63 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #81 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense.

From the standpoint of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Bowling Green is more productive on both sides of the ball as compared to Pittsburgh, so the model "predicts" that Bowling Green will be the winner of this years Little Caesars Bowl.

Boise State Under Petersen

Chris Petersen has accepted the head football coaching job at the University of Washington after eight years as head football coach at Boise State University.  So what I thought that I would do would be to look at the Boise State Broncos since 2008 (first year that I have all the data that I need to run the model) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model that I use on this blog.  Below is a chart of the Boise State Broncos since 2008, and below that is some more details of the Broncos football team under Petersen's tenure starting with the 2008 season and moving season by season to the end of the regular season.

2008
Boise State finished the regular season undefeated at 12-0, but lost in the Poinsettia Bowl to #6 ranked TCU 16-17 to finish overall at 12-1.   The Broncos played against an "easier" strength of schedule than compared to the "league" average, which is a schedule that is between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average.  Boise State's best game was a 37-32 victory over #19 ranked Oregon State.  Boise State finished as the #7 ranked team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #15 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense.  This was an another excellent team.

2009
Boise State had another fantastic year improving on their previous season by finishing the regular season undefeated at 13-0 and defeating #3 ranked TCU in the Fiesta Bowl 17-10.  Even though Boise State beat TCU and was undefeated, they finished ranked #4 in the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, just behind the TCU Horned Frogs.  In terms of the rankings, as I just said the Broncos were the #4 ranked team in all of the FBS with the #2 ranked offense and the #20 ranked defense.  So while the Broncos performance improved in the win/loss columns, overall production rank and offensive production rank, they slipped a little on the defensive side of the ball.  The Broncos played against an "average" strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league" and also defeated the #15 ranked Oregon Ducks 19-8 at the beginning of the season.  If 2008 was an excellent team, this team was even better!

2010
Boise State again improved their relative ranking this season to finish as the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as the #1 team in total production.  While they were not the best offense (finished ranked #5) nor the best defense (finished ranked #6) compared to the rest of the teams in college football, they were the most productive when considering both sides of the ball.  Boise State finished at 12-1 with their only loss to #7 ranked Nevada in overtime.  Their best game of their season was a 33-30 victory over #19 Virginia Tech at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos played against an "average" strength of schedule as compared to the "league"; that being plus or minus one standard deviation from the "league" mean SOS as were 82 other schools in the FBS.  Frankly, this was one of the best teams in all of college football since 2008.

2011
Another year; another great team.  The Broncos finished the regular season at 11-1 with their only loss a home loss to #9 ranked TCU by one point; to be snubbed for a BCS game and play in the Las Vegas Bowl where they crushed #62 ranked Arizona State 56-24.  Their best game against was a 35-21 victory over #21 Georgia at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos played an "average" SOS and finished as the #6 ranked team in total production, with the #9 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense.  While not as good as the previous season, this marks the fourth straight season that they finished in the top 10 in terms of overall production.

2012
The 2012 season marks the first time since 2007 that the Broncos lost two regular season games (Michigan State and San Diego State) to finish the regular season at 10-2 bringing the Broncos back to the Las Vegas Bowl where they defeated the #59 Washington Huskies 28-26 to finish overall at 11-2.  Boise State played against an "easier" strength of schedule, with their best win over #11 Fresno State.  Looking at the production rankings, the Broncos finished as the #10 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #38 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense, marking the fifth straight season with a top 10 ranked team in production.

2013
In terms of won/loss record, this has been Boise State's worst season under Petersen; finishing the regular season at 8-4.  Boise State plays today in the Hawai'i Bowl against Oregon State, and is "predicted" to win the Hawai'i Bowl given they are more productive than the Beavers.  To date, the Broncos have played against an average strength of schedule as compare to the "league" average, and of course will improve by playing against a team that should finished ranked above average after this game today.  Boise State's best game (win over highest ranked team) was over currently ranked #24 Utah State and the Broncos worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was to currently ranked #92 San Diego State University.  In terms of overall production, the Broncos are currently ranked as the #35 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #22 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense.  As you can see above, this is by far the poorest performance by the Broncos under Petersen's tenure.

2006 and 2007 - while I do not have all the data I need to run the model, these were both very good teams, finishing at 13-0 in 2006 and 10-3 in 2007.

Additionally, compared to other FBS coaches, Boise State got a bargain with Petersen in terms of salary.  Here is his salary paid by the school since 2006 (except) for 2008 from USA Today's NCAA football salary database.

YEAR		CONF		SCHOOL PAY
2013		Mt. West		$2,148,000
2012		Mt. West		$1,956,333
2011		Mt. West		$1,525,000
2010		WAC		$1,489,053
2009		WAC		$995,250
2007		WAC		$857,500
2006		WAC		$502,500

Analysis of 2013 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Texas and Mack Brown
Washington and Steve Sarkisian
Wake Forest and Jim Grobe
Wyoming and Dave Christensen
Eastern Michigan and Ron English
Florida Atlantic and Carl Pelini
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen