Today's Chick-fil-A Bowl has the Clemson Tigers of the Atlantic Coast Conference playing against the Louisiana State University (LCU) Tigers of the Southeastern Conference. Here is how each team matches up using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Clemson is currently 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule. Clemson's best game of the year was a win over currently ranked #59 Georgia Tech (all of their other nine wins were against teams currently ranked in the bottom half of the FBS) and their worst loss (they only had two) was to currently ranked #27 South Carolina. Clemson is currently ranked as the #24 most productive team overall with the #10 best offense and the #53 best defense.
LSU is currently also 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule. LSU's best game this season was a victory over currently ranked #13 Texas A&M, and the worse of the their two losses was to currently ranked #9 Florida. LSU is currently ranked as the #14 most productive team in the NCAA FBS overall with the #45 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.
Given that LSU is more productive than Clemson, the NCAA FBS Production Model "predicts" that LSU will be the winner in today's Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl 2012
The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl pits the Arizona State University Sun Devils of the Pacific 12 Conference against the Navy Midshipmen (currently an independent school). Here's some information using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Arizona State is currently 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". Arizona State's best win was against in-state rival Arizona and their worst loss was to Missouri. Arizona is currently the #31 most productive team in the FBS, with the #32 offense and the #31 defense.
Navy finished the regular season with a 17-13 victory over rival Army and a record of 8-4. Navy's best game was a victory over #80 East Carolina. All of Navy's victories have been over team currently ranked in the bottom quartile of the NCAA FBS production model. Navy worst loss was to currently ranked #54 Troy. Navy is currently ranked #53 in terms of overall productivity and is currently ranked #79 in terms of offense and #35 in terms of defense.
Given ASU's superior productivity, the model "predicts" that Arizona State will be victorious in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl today.
Arizona State is currently 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". Arizona State's best win was against in-state rival Arizona and their worst loss was to Missouri. Arizona is currently the #31 most productive team in the FBS, with the #32 offense and the #31 defense.
Navy finished the regular season with a 17-13 victory over rival Army and a record of 8-4. Navy's best game was a victory over #80 East Carolina. All of Navy's victories have been over team currently ranked in the bottom quartile of the NCAA FBS production model. Navy worst loss was to currently ranked #54 Troy. Navy is currently ranked #53 in terms of overall productivity and is currently ranked #79 in terms of offense and #35 in terms of defense.
Given ASU's superior productivity, the model "predicts" that Arizona State will be victorious in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl today.
Sun Bowl 2012
Today the Sun Bowl has the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets of the Atlantic Coast Conference playing against the USC Trojans of the PAC 12. Let's take a look at each team using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Georgia Tech finished the regular season at 6-7 (losing the ACC title game to Florida State) playing against an average strength of schedule. Georgia Tech best game was a 68-50 win against currently ranked #20 North Carolina. Their other five wins came against teams currently ranked 88th and higher. Georgia Tech's worst game was a loss to currently ranked #74 Miami of Florida. Georgia Tech is currently the #59 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #36 ranked offense and the #82 ranked defense.
USC finished the regular season 7-5 playing a tougher strength of schedule than the average of the "league". USC's best game was a 38-17 victory of #31 Arizona State and their worst game was a 36-39 defeat to #62 Arizona. USC is currently ranked as the #29 most productive team in the NCAA FBS with the #27 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense.
The model "predicts" that USC will be victorious over Georgia Tech in today's Sun Bowl.
Georgia Tech finished the regular season at 6-7 (losing the ACC title game to Florida State) playing against an average strength of schedule. Georgia Tech best game was a 68-50 win against currently ranked #20 North Carolina. Their other five wins came against teams currently ranked 88th and higher. Georgia Tech's worst game was a loss to currently ranked #74 Miami of Florida. Georgia Tech is currently the #59 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #36 ranked offense and the #82 ranked defense.
USC finished the regular season 7-5 playing a tougher strength of schedule than the average of the "league". USC's best game was a 38-17 victory of #31 Arizona State and their worst game was a 36-39 defeat to #62 Arizona. USC is currently ranked as the #29 most productive team in the NCAA FBS with the #27 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense.
The model "predicts" that USC will be victorious over Georgia Tech in today's Sun Bowl.
Music City Bowl 2012
Today we have the 14th annual Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl. This years game features the North Carolina State Wolfpack of the Atlantic Coast Conference facing the Vanderbilt Commodores of the Southeastern Conference. As has been the case, let's take a look at each of the two combatants using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
North Carolina State finished the season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. North Carolina States best win was over currently #4 ranked Florida State and their worst loss was to currently ranked #88 Virginia. North Carolina State is currently the #70 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #71 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense - all below average.
The Vanderbilt Commodores finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an average strength of schedule. Vanderbilt's best win was over currently #50 ranked Mississippi (Ole Miss). Just as an aside, six of the remaining victories for Vanderbilt were against teams that are currently ranked higher than 90 (bottom quartile of all the teams in the league). Vanderbilt is currently the #39 team in overall productivity, with the #53 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense.
Given that Vanderbilt is more productive on offense and defense - relative to North Carolina State, the model predicts that Vanderbilt will defeat North Carolina State in the Music City Bowl.
North Carolina State finished the season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. North Carolina States best win was over currently #4 ranked Florida State and their worst loss was to currently ranked #88 Virginia. North Carolina State is currently the #70 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #71 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense - all below average.
The Vanderbilt Commodores finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an average strength of schedule. Vanderbilt's best win was over currently #50 ranked Mississippi (Ole Miss). Just as an aside, six of the remaining victories for Vanderbilt were against teams that are currently ranked higher than 90 (bottom quartile of all the teams in the league). Vanderbilt is currently the #39 team in overall productivity, with the #53 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense.
Given that Vanderbilt is more productive on offense and defense - relative to North Carolina State, the model predicts that Vanderbilt will defeat North Carolina State in the Music City Bowl.
Liberty Bowl 2012
In today's Liberty Bowl we have the Iowa State Cyclones of the Big 12 Conference facing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane of Conference USA. Here is how each team looks using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Iowa State is currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule. Iowa State's most impressive game was a victory over currently ranked #38 Tulsa (who they are playing today), and their least impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #67 West Virginia. Iowa State is currently ranked as the #69 most productive team in FBS with the #73 most productive offense and the #67 most productive defense.
Tulsa is currently 10-3 playing an easier strength of schedule as compared to the average for the "league". Tulsa's best performance was a win over currently ranked #8 Fresno State and Tulsa's worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #96 Arkansas. Tulsa is currently ranked as the #38 most productive team with the #22 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.
Given that Tulsa is more productive than Iowa State, the model would "predict" that Tulsa will win the Liberty Bowl.
Iowa State is currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule. Iowa State's most impressive game was a victory over currently ranked #38 Tulsa (who they are playing today), and their least impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #67 West Virginia. Iowa State is currently ranked as the #69 most productive team in FBS with the #73 most productive offense and the #67 most productive defense.
Tulsa is currently 10-3 playing an easier strength of schedule as compared to the average for the "league". Tulsa's best performance was a win over currently ranked #8 Fresno State and Tulsa's worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #96 Arkansas. Tulsa is currently ranked as the #38 most productive team with the #22 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.
Given that Tulsa is more productive than Iowa State, the model would "predict" that Tulsa will win the Liberty Bowl.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl 2012
The Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl has the Michigan State Spartans of the Big 10 conference facing the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs of the Big 12 conference. Here is how each team looks using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Michigan State is currently 6-6 playing a tougher than average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". Michigan State's best game was a 17-13 victory over currently ranked #12 Boise State and their worst performance was a 16-19 loss to currently ranked #78 Iowa. Michigan State is currently the #46 ranked team in overall production with the #101 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense.
Texas Christian University (TCU) finished the regular season at 7-5 while playing against an average strength of schedule. TCU's best game this season was a 20-13 victory over currently ranked #55 Texas and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #69 Iowa State. TCU is currently ranked as the #43 most productive team overall with the #64 most productive offense and the #25 most productive defense.
Given that TCU is slightly better than Michigan State, the model "predicts" that TCU will be the victor in today's Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.
Michigan State is currently 6-6 playing a tougher than average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". Michigan State's best game was a 17-13 victory over currently ranked #12 Boise State and their worst performance was a 16-19 loss to currently ranked #78 Iowa. Michigan State is currently the #46 ranked team in overall production with the #101 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense.
Texas Christian University (TCU) finished the regular season at 7-5 while playing against an average strength of schedule. TCU's best game this season was a 20-13 victory over currently ranked #55 Texas and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #69 Iowa State. TCU is currently ranked as the #43 most productive team overall with the #64 most productive offense and the #25 most productive defense.
Given that TCU is slightly better than Michigan State, the model "predicts" that TCU will be the victor in today's Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.
Alamo Bowl 2012
The Alamo Bowl has the Oregon State University Beavers of the PAC 12 Conference facing the University of Texas Longhorns of the Big 12 Conference. Here is how each team looks using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Oregon State finished the regular season at 9-3 against a tougher than average strength of schedule. Thus Oregon State's strength of schedule was more than one standard deviation from the mean strength of schedule for the rest of the "league". OSU's most impressive game was a 27-20 victory over currently ranked #21 UCLA and their worst performance was a 17-20 loss to currently ranked #52 Washington. Oregon State is currently ranked as the #19 most productive team in the nation, with the #25 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense.
The Texas Longhorns finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Longhorns best win (win over highest ranked team in the NCAA FBS Production Model) was 41-36 victory over currently ranked #49 Oklahoma State University and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team they played this year) was a 45-48 loss to currently ranked #67 West Virginia. Texas is currently the #55 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #51 most productive offense and the #64 most productive defense.
Given that Oregon State is more productive than Texas, the model "predicts" that Oregon State will be the winner of today's Alamo Bowl.
Oregon State finished the regular season at 9-3 against a tougher than average strength of schedule. Thus Oregon State's strength of schedule was more than one standard deviation from the mean strength of schedule for the rest of the "league". OSU's most impressive game was a 27-20 victory over currently ranked #21 UCLA and their worst performance was a 17-20 loss to currently ranked #52 Washington. Oregon State is currently ranked as the #19 most productive team in the nation, with the #25 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense.
The Texas Longhorns finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Longhorns best win (win over highest ranked team in the NCAA FBS Production Model) was 41-36 victory over currently ranked #49 Oklahoma State University and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team they played this year) was a 45-48 loss to currently ranked #67 West Virginia. Texas is currently the #55 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #51 most productive offense and the #64 most productive defense.
Given that Oregon State is more productive than Texas, the model "predicts" that Oregon State will be the winner of today's Alamo Bowl.
Pinstripe Bowl 2012
The Pinstripe Bowl has the Syracuse Orangemen of the Big East Conference playing the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big 12 Conference. Here is a look at each team using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Syracuse finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Orangemen's best game was against currently ranked #30 Pittsburgh and their worst performance was against #86 Minnesota. The Orangemen are currently ranked #40 in terms of overall production with the #35 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense.
West Virginia finished the regular season also at 7-5 and also against an average strength of schedule. The Mountaineers best game was a 48-45 victory over currently ranked #55 Texas and their worst performances was a 14-49 loss to #61 Texas Tech. West Virginia is currently the #67 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #30 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense.
Given that Syracuse is overall more productive than West Virginia, the model "predicts" that Syracuse will be the winner of the Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Orangemen's best game was against currently ranked #30 Pittsburgh and their worst performance was against #86 Minnesota. The Orangemen are currently ranked #40 in terms of overall production with the #35 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense.
West Virginia finished the regular season also at 7-5 and also against an average strength of schedule. The Mountaineers best game was a 48-45 victory over currently ranked #55 Texas and their worst performances was a 14-49 loss to #61 Texas Tech. West Virginia is currently the #67 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #30 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense.
Given that Syracuse is overall more productive than West Virginia, the model "predicts" that Syracuse will be the winner of the Pinstripe Bowl
Armed Forces Bowl 2012
This year's Armed Forces Bowl has the Air Force Falcons of the Mountain West conference facing the University of Rice Owls of Conference USA. Here's a primer using the NCAA FBS production model.
Air Force finished the season at 6-6 playing against an easier strength of schedule as compared to the average team in the "league". The Falcons most impressive win was against currently #56 ranked Nevada and their least impressive outing was a 35-38 loss to #106 UNLV. Air Force is currently the #83 ranked team overall with the #80 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense.
Rice University also finished the regular season at 6-6 and also played an easier strength of schedule than the average of the league. The Owls best victory was against currently #63 SMU and their worst loss was against #99 Houston. Rice is currently the #79 ranked team overall with the #56 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense.
These teams are really very evenly matched, but given the University of Rice is slightly more productive than Air Force, the model "predicts" that Rice will be the victor today in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Air Force finished the season at 6-6 playing against an easier strength of schedule as compared to the average team in the "league". The Falcons most impressive win was against currently #56 ranked Nevada and their least impressive outing was a 35-38 loss to #106 UNLV. Air Force is currently the #83 ranked team overall with the #80 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense.
Rice University also finished the regular season at 6-6 and also played an easier strength of schedule than the average of the league. The Owls best victory was against currently #63 SMU and their worst loss was against #99 Houston. Rice is currently the #79 ranked team overall with the #56 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense.
These teams are really very evenly matched, but given the University of Rice is slightly more productive than Air Force, the model "predicts" that Rice will be the victor today in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Friday, December 28, 2012
Meinke Car Care Bowl 2012
In the Meinkie Car Care Bowl we have the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers of the Big 10 Conference playing against the Texas Tech University Red Raiders of the Big 12 Conference. Here is how each team stacks up using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule. Minnesota's best game was a victory over currently ranked #40 Syracuse and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #78 Iowa. Minnesota is currently ranked as the #86 most productive team in the FBS with the #104 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense.
Texas Tech finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. Texas Tech's best game this year was a win over currently ranked #43 TCU and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #73 Baylor. Texas Tech is currently ranked as the #61 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #44 most productive offense and the #75 most productive defense.
Given that Texas Tech is more productive than Minnesota, the model "predicts" that Texas Tech will be victorious over Minnesota in the Meinke Car Care Bowl today.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule. Minnesota's best game was a victory over currently ranked #40 Syracuse and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #78 Iowa. Minnesota is currently ranked as the #86 most productive team in the FBS with the #104 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense.
Texas Tech finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. Texas Tech's best game this year was a win over currently ranked #43 TCU and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #73 Baylor. Texas Tech is currently ranked as the #61 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #44 most productive offense and the #75 most productive defense.
Given that Texas Tech is more productive than Minnesota, the model "predicts" that Texas Tech will be victorious over Minnesota in the Meinke Car Care Bowl today.
Russell Athletic Bowl 2012
The Russell Athletic Bowl has the Rutgers Scarlett Knights of the Big East against the Virginia Tech Hokies of the ACC. Here is how each team looks using my NCAA FBS Production Model.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are currently 9-3 playing against an average strength of schedule. Rutgers most impressive win was a 10-3 decision against currently ranked #11 Cincinnati (five of their victories were against teams currently ranked higher than 90) and their least impressive game was 17-20 loss to currently ranked #37 Louisville. Rutgers is the #15th ranked team in terms of overall productivity with the #69 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense.
The Virginia Tech Hokies finished the regular season at 6-6 playing a tougher than average strength of schedule as compared to the average strength of schedule for the rest of the "league". Virginia Tech's most impressive win was against currently #28 ranked Bowling Green and their worst loss was to currently #74 ranked Miami of Florida. Virginia Tech is currently the #71 ranked most productive team with the #85 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense.
Given that Rutgers is more productive on offense and defense, the model "predicts" that Rutgers will be victorious today against Virginia Tech in the Russell Athletic Bowl today.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are currently 9-3 playing against an average strength of schedule. Rutgers most impressive win was a 10-3 decision against currently ranked #11 Cincinnati (five of their victories were against teams currently ranked higher than 90) and their least impressive game was 17-20 loss to currently ranked #37 Louisville. Rutgers is the #15th ranked team in terms of overall productivity with the #69 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense.
The Virginia Tech Hokies finished the regular season at 6-6 playing a tougher than average strength of schedule as compared to the average strength of schedule for the rest of the "league". Virginia Tech's most impressive win was against currently #28 ranked Bowling Green and their worst loss was to currently #74 ranked Miami of Florida. Virginia Tech is currently the #71 ranked most productive team with the #85 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense.
Given that Rutgers is more productive on offense and defense, the model "predicts" that Rutgers will be victorious today against Virginia Tech in the Russell Athletic Bowl today.
Independence Bowl 2012
Today marks the 37th annual playing of the Independence Bowl (first played in 1976), pitting the Ohio University Bobcats of the MidAmerican Confernce against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks of the SunBelt Conference. Here's how each team stacks up in the NCAA FBS production model.
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an easier schedule than the rest of the league, using my measure of schedule strength. The Warhawks most impressive win was against #51 Western Kentucky and their least impressive game was a loss to #108 ranked Auburn. The Warhawks are currently the #48 ranked team overall with the #31 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense.
The Ohio University Bobcats finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against a MUCH EASIER strength of schedule than the average SOS for the "league". That means that Ohio University's SOS is greater than two standard deviations from the average league SOS and Ohio University is only one of three teams currently with a SOS that is greater than two standard deviations above the average SOS for the season. The Bobcats most impressive win this season was against Penn State and their most disappointing performance was a loss to currently ranked #114 Miami of Ohio. To date the Ohio University Bobcats are the #60 ranked team overall with the #60 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.
Given the superior offense of the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, the model predicts that Louisiana-Monroe will be victorious in today's Independence bowl.
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an easier schedule than the rest of the league, using my measure of schedule strength. The Warhawks most impressive win was against #51 Western Kentucky and their least impressive game was a loss to #108 ranked Auburn. The Warhawks are currently the #48 ranked team overall with the #31 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense.
The Ohio University Bobcats finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against a MUCH EASIER strength of schedule than the average SOS for the "league". That means that Ohio University's SOS is greater than two standard deviations from the average league SOS and Ohio University is only one of three teams currently with a SOS that is greater than two standard deviations above the average SOS for the season. The Bobcats most impressive win this season was against Penn State and their most disappointing performance was a loss to currently ranked #114 Miami of Ohio. To date the Ohio University Bobcats are the #60 ranked team overall with the #60 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.
Given the superior offense of the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, the model predicts that Louisiana-Monroe will be victorious in today's Independence bowl.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Holiday Bowl 2012
In tonight's Holiday Bowl we have the Baylor Bears of the Big 12 facing the UCLA Bruins of the Pacific 12. Here is how each team looks from the vantage point of the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Baylor finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. Baylor's most impressive victory (win over the NCAA FBS Production Model's currently highest ranked team) was against #16 Kansas State and their most impressive loss was to currently ranked #69 Iowa State. Baylor is currently the #73 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #120 ranked defense.
UCLA finished the regular season at 9-3 (and lost the PAC 12 title game to Stanford) to go to 9-4 also playing against an average strength of schedule. UCLA's most impressive win was over currently #29 ranked USC and their least impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #98 California. UCLA is currently ranked as the #21 team in overall production with the #9 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
Given that the two teams have nearly identically productive offenses, but that UCLA has an (slightly) below average defense while Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the FBS, the model would "predict" that UCLA will be victorious against Baylor in today's Holiday Bowl.
Baylor finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. Baylor's most impressive victory (win over the NCAA FBS Production Model's currently highest ranked team) was against #16 Kansas State and their most impressive loss was to currently ranked #69 Iowa State. Baylor is currently the #73 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #120 ranked defense.
UCLA finished the regular season at 9-3 (and lost the PAC 12 title game to Stanford) to go to 9-4 also playing against an average strength of schedule. UCLA's most impressive win was over currently #29 ranked USC and their least impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #98 California. UCLA is currently ranked as the #21 team in overall production with the #9 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
Given that the two teams have nearly identically productive offenses, but that UCLA has an (slightly) below average defense while Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the FBS, the model would "predict" that UCLA will be victorious against Baylor in today's Holiday Bowl.
Belk Bowl 2012
This year's Belk Bowl pits the Cincinnati Bearcats of the Big East Conference against the Duke Blue Devils of the Atlantic Coast Conference. Here's a preview from the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Cincinnati is currently 9-3 playing against an average (barely) strength of schedule. The Bearcats most impressive game this season was a 34-10 victory over currently #30 ranked Pittsburgh, and their least impressive game was a 23-29 loss to currently ranked #57 Toledo. Cincinnati is currently the #11 team in overall productivity, with the #29 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.
Duke is currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Blue Devils most impressive game was a 33-30 victory over North Carolina, while their other five victories all come against teams currently ranked in the bottom quartile of the NCAA FBS Production rankings. Duke's less impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #74 Miami of Florida. Duke is currently the #91 ranked team in terms of productivity using the NCAA FBS Production model, with the #83 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense.
This game should be a rout for Cincinnati, given that Duke may be the worst team to be bowl eligible (in terms of productivity). The model predicts that Cincinnati will be victorious in the Belk Bowl today.
Cincinnati is currently 9-3 playing against an average (barely) strength of schedule. The Bearcats most impressive game this season was a 34-10 victory over currently #30 ranked Pittsburgh, and their least impressive game was a 23-29 loss to currently ranked #57 Toledo. Cincinnati is currently the #11 team in overall productivity, with the #29 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.
Duke is currently 6-6 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Blue Devils most impressive game was a 33-30 victory over North Carolina, while their other five victories all come against teams currently ranked in the bottom quartile of the NCAA FBS Production rankings. Duke's less impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #74 Miami of Florida. Duke is currently the #91 ranked team in terms of productivity using the NCAA FBS Production model, with the #83 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense.
This game should be a rout for Cincinnati, given that Duke may be the worst team to be bowl eligible (in terms of productivity). The model predicts that Cincinnati will be victorious in the Belk Bowl today.
Military Bowl 2012
In today's Military Bowl the Bowling Green Falcons of the Mid American Conference due battle with the San Jose State Spartans of the Western Athletic Conference. So let's see how these combatants fare from the NCAA FBS production models perspective.
Bowling Green University finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an easier strength of schedule (SOS) than the average strength of schedule for the "league" overall. Bowling Green's SOS equals 84.67, where the average of the league currently stands at 66.73. Given Bowling Green's SOS is greater than one standard deviation from the mean, I conclude that they have an easier strength of schedule than the league as a whole. Further proof for their easy schedule, six of their eight wins were against teams that are currently ranked over 100 using the NCAA production model. One of those wins was against a FCS team (which by default I rank equal to 125). The other two wins were against #60 Ohio and #77 Buffalo. Bowling Green is currently the #28 ranked team overall with the #72 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The San Jose State Spartans finished the regular season at 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule of 68.58. San Jose State's best win was against currently ranked #22 BYU and their two losses were to NCAA FBS production model top 25 teams (Utah State and Stanford). San Jose State is currently the #17 ranked team overall with the #15 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense.
This should be an interesting game between a very good defense in Bowling Green and a very good offense in San Jose State. From the model, the game should be decided on the other end with San Jose State's superior defense shutting down Bowling Green's below average offense. Look for the San Jose State Spartans to be victorious in today Military Bowl.
Bowling Green University finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an easier strength of schedule (SOS) than the average strength of schedule for the "league" overall. Bowling Green's SOS equals 84.67, where the average of the league currently stands at 66.73. Given Bowling Green's SOS is greater than one standard deviation from the mean, I conclude that they have an easier strength of schedule than the league as a whole. Further proof for their easy schedule, six of their eight wins were against teams that are currently ranked over 100 using the NCAA production model. One of those wins was against a FCS team (which by default I rank equal to 125). The other two wins were against #60 Ohio and #77 Buffalo. Bowling Green is currently the #28 ranked team overall with the #72 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The San Jose State Spartans finished the regular season at 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule of 68.58. San Jose State's best win was against currently ranked #22 BYU and their two losses were to NCAA FBS production model top 25 teams (Utah State and Stanford). San Jose State is currently the #17 ranked team overall with the #15 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense.
This should be an interesting game between a very good defense in Bowling Green and a very good offense in San Jose State. From the model, the game should be decided on the other end with San Jose State's superior defense shutting down Bowling Green's below average offense. Look for the San Jose State Spartans to be victorious in today Military Bowl.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Little Caesars Bowl 2012
The Little Caesars Bowl has the Central Michigan Chippewas of the Mid American Conference against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers of the SunBelt Conference. Continuing with each bowl game's analysis using the NCAA FBS Production Model, here is how each team stacks up.
Central Michigan finished the regular season at 6-6 playing an easier than average strength of schedule as compared to the average - meaning that CMU's schedule was greater than one standard deviation from the average SOS for the "league". Central Michigan's best win was against #78 Iowa (other five wins over teams ranked 100 or higher), and their worst loss was to #76 Ball State. Central Michigan is currently the #82 ranked team overall with the #66 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense.
Western Kentucky is currently 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". WKU's best win was against #23 Arkansas State, and their least impressive outing was against #104 Florida Atlantic. Western Michigan is currently ranked as the #51 most productive team in the nation with the #62 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense.
Given Western Michigan is ranked higher than Central Michigan, the model "predicts" that Western Kentucky will win today.
Central Michigan finished the regular season at 6-6 playing an easier than average strength of schedule as compared to the average - meaning that CMU's schedule was greater than one standard deviation from the average SOS for the "league". Central Michigan's best win was against #78 Iowa (other five wins over teams ranked 100 or higher), and their worst loss was to #76 Ball State. Central Michigan is currently the #82 ranked team overall with the #66 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense.
Western Kentucky is currently 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". WKU's best win was against #23 Arkansas State, and their least impressive outing was against #104 Florida Atlantic. Western Michigan is currently ranked as the #51 most productive team in the nation with the #62 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense.
Given Western Michigan is ranked higher than Central Michigan, the model "predicts" that Western Kentucky will win today.
Monday, December 24, 2012
Hawaii Bowl 2012
This year's Hawaii Bowl features the Fresno State University Bulldogs of the Mountain West Conference against the Southern Methodist University Mustangs of Conference USA. Here is how the two teams stack up against each other using my NCAA FBS Production Model.
Fresno State at the end of the regular season finished at 9-3 playing against an average strength of schedule (barely). All of Fresno State's losses were to teams in the top quartile of the current NCAA FBS production rankings, and the Bulldogs most impressive win was against currently #47 ranked San Diego State. Fresno State (again in the NCAA FBS Production Model) currently ranks as the #8 team in the nation in terms of overall productivity, with the #8 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense. This is truly a very good team that has been overlooked for the entire season.
Southern Methodist University (SMU) finished the regular season at 6-6. SMU's most impressive victory was against #38 Tulsa - who defeated Fresno State by one point. SMU least impressive outings were losses to currently ranked #79 Rice and #111 Tulane. Four of SMU's six victories were against teams currently ranked above 100 in the NCAA FBS Production Model. SMU is currently the #63 ranked team overall, with the #78 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense.
As you can no doubt determine, according to the model, Fresno State is a vastly superior team and thus the model would "predict" that Fresno State will defeat SMU in today's Hawaii Bowl.
Fresno State at the end of the regular season finished at 9-3 playing against an average strength of schedule (barely). All of Fresno State's losses were to teams in the top quartile of the current NCAA FBS production rankings, and the Bulldogs most impressive win was against currently #47 ranked San Diego State. Fresno State (again in the NCAA FBS Production Model) currently ranks as the #8 team in the nation in terms of overall productivity, with the #8 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense. This is truly a very good team that has been overlooked for the entire season.
Southern Methodist University (SMU) finished the regular season at 6-6. SMU's most impressive victory was against #38 Tulsa - who defeated Fresno State by one point. SMU least impressive outings were losses to currently ranked #79 Rice and #111 Tulane. Four of SMU's six victories were against teams currently ranked above 100 in the NCAA FBS Production Model. SMU is currently the #63 ranked team overall, with the #78 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense.
As you can no doubt determine, according to the model, Fresno State is a vastly superior team and thus the model would "predict" that Fresno State will defeat SMU in today's Hawaii Bowl.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Las Vegas Bowl 2012
Tonight we have the 21st annual Las Vegas Bowl pitting the Boise State Broncos out of the Mountain West Conference against the University of Washington Huskies out of the Pacific 12 Conference. Here is some information about each team using the NCAA FBS production model as a guide to tonight's game.
This is the third consecutive time that the Boise State Broncos have played in the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, with each of the two previous meetings being decisive victories for Boise State over Utah and Arizona State. Boise State finished the regular season at 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule. Boise State has defeated two top 25 teams (in the NCAA production model - Fresno State and BYU) and their only two losses were by four points to Michigan State and two points to San Diego State. Boise State is currently the #12 most productive team in the nation overall with the #43 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense.
The University of Washington finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Huskies best wins were against currently ranked #18 Stanford and #19 Oregon State and the worst performance was against currently #111 ranked Washington State. The University of Washington is currently ranked #52 overall, with the #81 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense.
Given Boise State's superior productivity on both offense and defense, the model would predict that the Boise State Broncos will defeat the University of Washington Huskies in this years Maaco Las Vegas bowl.
This is the third consecutive time that the Boise State Broncos have played in the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, with each of the two previous meetings being decisive victories for Boise State over Utah and Arizona State. Boise State finished the regular season at 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule. Boise State has defeated two top 25 teams (in the NCAA production model - Fresno State and BYU) and their only two losses were by four points to Michigan State and two points to San Diego State. Boise State is currently the #12 most productive team in the nation overall with the #43 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense.
The University of Washington finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. The Huskies best wins were against currently ranked #18 Stanford and #19 Oregon State and the worst performance was against currently #111 ranked Washington State. The University of Washington is currently ranked #52 overall, with the #81 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense.
Given Boise State's superior productivity on both offense and defense, the model would predict that the Boise State Broncos will defeat the University of Washington Huskies in this years Maaco Las Vegas bowl.
New Orleans Bowl 2012
This year in the Big Easy, we have the East Carolina University Pirates of Conference USA competing against the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns of the SunBelt conference. In order to get more familiar with these two teams let's take a look from the vantage point of the NCAA FBS production model.
East Carolina University finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an easier strength of schedule than the average league strength of schedule. East Carolina's eight wins this season are all over teams ranked #85 or higher (i.e. teams ranked in the bottom half of the production ranking), with the Pirates best win over currently ranked #85 Memphis and their four losses are against teams (South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida, and Navy) ranked in the top half of the production ranking. East Carolina is currently the #80 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense.
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns also finished the regular season at 8-4 while playing against a strength of schedule that I would consider similar to the average SOS for the league as a whole. The Rajun Cajuns have defeated three teams that are in the top half of the production rankings, with their other five victories against teams in the bottom half. Other than their loss to North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette's losses have been to teams in the top half of the production rankings. Overall the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns are currently ranked #42 with the #23 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense.
In summary, given Louisiana-Lafayette's superior productivity on both sides of the ball as compared to East Carolina, the model would predict that the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns will be the victor today.
East Carolina University finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an easier strength of schedule than the average league strength of schedule. East Carolina's eight wins this season are all over teams ranked #85 or higher (i.e. teams ranked in the bottom half of the production ranking), with the Pirates best win over currently ranked #85 Memphis and their four losses are against teams (South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida, and Navy) ranked in the top half of the production ranking. East Carolina is currently the #80 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense.
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns also finished the regular season at 8-4 while playing against a strength of schedule that I would consider similar to the average SOS for the league as a whole. The Rajun Cajuns have defeated three teams that are in the top half of the production rankings, with their other five victories against teams in the bottom half. Other than their loss to North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette's losses have been to teams in the top half of the production rankings. Overall the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns are currently ranked #42 with the #23 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense.
In summary, given Louisiana-Lafayette's superior productivity on both sides of the ball as compared to East Carolina, the model would predict that the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns will be the victor today.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Beef OBradys Bowl 2012
This year the Beef O'Brady's Bowl features the Ball State Cardinals of the Mid American Conference against the University of Central Florida Knights of Conference USA. So here's a primer on the game between these two schools using the NCAA FBS production model.
The Ball State Cardinals finished the regular season at 9-3 playing against a strength of schedule of 71.92 which is still an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". Ball State's most impressive win was against currently #57 ranked Toledo. Each of the Cardinal's three losses occurred to teams that are currently ranked in the top 40 overall (Northern Illinois, Clemson and Kent State). Ball State is currently the #76 ranked team overall with the #52 ranked offense and the #94th ranked defense.
The University of Central Florida Knights finished the regular season at 9-4 while playing a strength of schedule that is easier than the league as a whole. UCF's best win was against currently ranked #63 SMU, while three of their losses were to teams in the top 40 (Ohio State and Tulsa (twice)). Their other loss was to currently ranked #92 Missouri. The University of Central Florida Knights are currently ranked as the #34 team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #20 offense and the #51 ranked defense.
Given that the University of Central Florida Knights are superior to the Ball State Cardinals on both sides of the ball, the model "predicts" that the University of Central Florida will be victorious in today's Beef O'Brady's Bowl.
The Ball State Cardinals finished the regular season at 9-3 playing against a strength of schedule of 71.92 which is still an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league". Ball State's most impressive win was against currently #57 ranked Toledo. Each of the Cardinal's three losses occurred to teams that are currently ranked in the top 40 overall (Northern Illinois, Clemson and Kent State). Ball State is currently the #76 ranked team overall with the #52 ranked offense and the #94th ranked defense.
The University of Central Florida Knights finished the regular season at 9-4 while playing a strength of schedule that is easier than the league as a whole. UCF's best win was against currently ranked #63 SMU, while three of their losses were to teams in the top 40 (Ohio State and Tulsa (twice)). Their other loss was to currently ranked #92 Missouri. The University of Central Florida Knights are currently ranked as the #34 team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #20 offense and the #51 ranked defense.
Given that the University of Central Florida Knights are superior to the Ball State Cardinals on both sides of the ball, the model "predicts" that the University of Central Florida will be victorious in today's Beef O'Brady's Bowl.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Poinsettia Bowl 2012
The San Diego State Aztecs of the Mountain West Conference will face the Brigham Young University Cougars - who currently is one of only four independent teams in NCAA FBS - today in the Poinsettia Bowl. Here is the breakdown using my NCAA FBS production model of the two teams this season along with a "prediction" as to the eventual winner.
The Brigham Young University Cougars are currently 7-5 while playing against a strength of schedule of 64.92 which is within one standard deviation of the average strength of schedule, so I would conclude that BYU has played an average strength of schedule up to this point. BYU's best victories (in terms of wins over the currently highest ranked opponents they have played) are against currently ranked #6 Utah State University and #59 Georgia Tech. The other five victories were against teams currently ranked over 100. Other than the 6-3 win over USU, the Cougars have struggled against higher ranked opponents, losing to Boise State, Notre Dame, San Jose State and Oregon State - all currently ranked in the top 25. That said, BYU is currently the #22 ranked team overall in the "league" with the #70 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
The San Diego State Aztecs are currently 9-3 playing a strength of schedule equal to 71.92, which is easier than BYU's but still considered an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the league. The Aztecs most impressive victory was a two point decision against currently #12 ranked Boise State and Boise State defeated BYU by one point earlier in the season. The Aztecs least impressive outing was a loss to currently ranked #52 University of Washington. Their other two losses were to top 25 teams (Fresno State and San Jose State). The San Diego State Aztecs currently are the #47 ranked team in the league with the #39 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense.
Given that BYU is estimated to be a more productive team than San Diego State, the model "predicts" that the Brigham Young University Cougars will be victorious today in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Sports Illustrated picks San Diego State over BYU.
The Brigham Young University Cougars are currently 7-5 while playing against a strength of schedule of 64.92 which is within one standard deviation of the average strength of schedule, so I would conclude that BYU has played an average strength of schedule up to this point. BYU's best victories (in terms of wins over the currently highest ranked opponents they have played) are against currently ranked #6 Utah State University and #59 Georgia Tech. The other five victories were against teams currently ranked over 100. Other than the 6-3 win over USU, the Cougars have struggled against higher ranked opponents, losing to Boise State, Notre Dame, San Jose State and Oregon State - all currently ranked in the top 25. That said, BYU is currently the #22 ranked team overall in the "league" with the #70 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
The San Diego State Aztecs are currently 9-3 playing a strength of schedule equal to 71.92, which is easier than BYU's but still considered an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the league. The Aztecs most impressive victory was a two point decision against currently #12 ranked Boise State and Boise State defeated BYU by one point earlier in the season. The Aztecs least impressive outing was a loss to currently ranked #52 University of Washington. Their other two losses were to top 25 teams (Fresno State and San Jose State). The San Diego State Aztecs currently are the #47 ranked team in the league with the #39 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense.
Given that BYU is estimated to be a more productive team than San Diego State, the model "predicts" that the Brigham Young University Cougars will be victorious today in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Sports Illustrated picks San Diego State over BYU.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Guide to Calculating the Gini Coefficient
In a previous blog I noted the amount of NCAA FBS Bowl payout inequality for the 2011 bowl season. Here I want to provide you with a step-by-step guide using Microsoft Excel as to how I calculated the Gini coefficient using the 2011 NCAA FBS payout as an example. This looks difficult, but taking this one step at a time, it is not.
Step 1: Get the data you want to measure inequality. Usually this will be income data for a population, but for illustration purposes, I used the following link for the 2011 NCAA FBS bowl payouts. Copy and paste into Excel.
Step 2: Sort the data. In Excel highlight the data that you want to measure and sort from smallest to largest under Data|Sort. (Note: When I did this using the NCAA payout data I had to "clean" it up so that I had the payouts for both teams - just entering the same bowl and payout twice except for a few where the payouts were different for different teams - plus some general clean up to get the bowl names in column (A) and the payouts in the next column (B)).
Step 3: Numbering the participants. For the NCAA Bowl payout case I entered the number 1 in cell E2 and then created a formula =E2 + 1 in cell E3, and then copied this down column E for all the participants. (Thus if there were 35 bowl games then there would be 70 teams and the last number was 70). You could also use the fill command to do this as well.
Step 4: Calculate n. Next I calculated n (total number of participants). In cell G4 I entered the following formula =countif(E2:E70,">0"), where the 70 is n in this example.
Step 5: Calculate the cumulative percentage of the participants. In column C, I entered the following formula: =E2/$G$4, and then copy this formula down column C for all participants. As a check, the last cell should equal 1.00.
Step 6: Calculate the total payouts for all the participants. In cell G6 enter the following formula: =sum(B2:B70).
Step 7: Calculate cumulative payout by participants. In cell D2 I entered the following formula: =B2/$G$6. In cell D3, I entered the formula: = D2 + B3/$G$6, and then copy this formula for the rest of the participants in column D. Again as a check, the last cell should equal 1.00.
Step 8: Calculate the participants income (or in this case payout). In column F the calculation for the first area is different from the rest, so in cell F2 I entered the formula = 0.5*C2*D2. In cell F3 I entered the formula = 0.5*(D2+D3)*(C3-C2). Then copy the formula in cell F3 down column F for all the participants.
Step 9: Calculate the total participants area. In Excel I entered the following formula in cell G2: =sum(F2:F100).
Step 10: Calculate Gini Coefficient. In cell G8, I entered the following formula: =(0.5 - G2)/0.5 or 1-2*G2. Both will give you the Gini Coefficient. (If you would rather have the Gini Index - such as reported by the World Bank, just take the number calculated in cell G8 and multiply by 100.)
UPDATE (12/29/15): corrections made in step 6 and 7 by suggestions from John Weicher. Many thanks John.
Step 1: Get the data you want to measure inequality. Usually this will be income data for a population, but for illustration purposes, I used the following link for the 2011 NCAA FBS bowl payouts. Copy and paste into Excel.
Step 2: Sort the data. In Excel highlight the data that you want to measure and sort from smallest to largest under Data|Sort. (Note: When I did this using the NCAA payout data I had to "clean" it up so that I had the payouts for both teams - just entering the same bowl and payout twice except for a few where the payouts were different for different teams - plus some general clean up to get the bowl names in column (A) and the payouts in the next column (B)).
Step 3: Numbering the participants. For the NCAA Bowl payout case I entered the number 1 in cell E2 and then created a formula =E2 + 1 in cell E3, and then copied this down column E for all the participants. (Thus if there were 35 bowl games then there would be 70 teams and the last number was 70). You could also use the fill command to do this as well.
Step 4: Calculate n. Next I calculated n (total number of participants). In cell G4 I entered the following formula =countif(E2:E70,">0"), where the 70 is n in this example.
Step 5: Calculate the cumulative percentage of the participants. In column C, I entered the following formula: =E2/$G$4, and then copy this formula down column C for all participants. As a check, the last cell should equal 1.00.
Step 6: Calculate the total payouts for all the participants. In cell G6 enter the following formula: =sum(B2:B70).
Step 7: Calculate cumulative payout by participants. In cell D2 I entered the following formula: =B2/$G$6. In cell D3, I entered the formula: = D2 + B3/$G$6, and then copy this formula for the rest of the participants in column D. Again as a check, the last cell should equal 1.00.
Step 8: Calculate the participants income (or in this case payout). In column F the calculation for the first area is different from the rest, so in cell F2 I entered the formula = 0.5*C2*D2. In cell F3 I entered the formula = 0.5*(D2+D3)*(C3-C2). Then copy the formula in cell F3 down column F for all the participants.
Step 9: Calculate the total participants area. In Excel I entered the following formula in cell G2: =sum(F2:F100).
Step 10: Calculate Gini Coefficient. In cell G8, I entered the following formula: =(0.5 - G2)/0.5 or 1-2*G2. Both will give you the Gini Coefficient. (If you would rather have the Gini Index - such as reported by the World Bank, just take the number calculated in cell G8 and multiply by 100.)
UPDATE (12/29/15): corrections made in step 6 and 7 by suggestions from John Weicher. Many thanks John.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Idaho Potato Bowl 2012
The second bowl of the season (and of the day) is the Idaho Potato Bowl which has the Utah State Aggies of the Western Athletic Conference against the University of Toledo Rockets of the Mid American Conference. Here is a quick overview of these two teams performance this season using the NCAA FBS production model and as always a game "prediction" based on the model. I will also be tracking the results as the bowl season progresses, so check back often to see how the model does.
The Toledo Rockets finished the regular season at 9-3 against an average strength of schedule (69.42) as compared to the rest of the league. Toledo's most impressive win was against #11 ranked Cincinnati and their worst performance of the season was against #76 ranked Ball State. Toledo currently is the #57 most productive team in the nation with the #37 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense.
The Utah State Aggies finished the season at 10-2 against an average strength of schedule (76.25) relative to the rest of the FBS teams. The Aggies most impressive win came against #17 San Jose State and their two losses were to #25 Wisconsin (by 2 points) and #22 BYU ( by 3 points). Utah State is currently the #6 most productive team in the nation with the #17 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense. This is a really good team and has been over the last few years.
Do not be surprised if this game is rather one-sided with Utah State's superior offense and defense stopping the Rockets on both sides of the ball. As you have guessed, the model predicts that Utah State will be victorious against the Toledo Rockets in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
The Toledo Rockets finished the regular season at 9-3 against an average strength of schedule (69.42) as compared to the rest of the league. Toledo's most impressive win was against #11 ranked Cincinnati and their worst performance of the season was against #76 ranked Ball State. Toledo currently is the #57 most productive team in the nation with the #37 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense.
The Utah State Aggies finished the season at 10-2 against an average strength of schedule (76.25) relative to the rest of the FBS teams. The Aggies most impressive win came against #17 San Jose State and their two losses were to #25 Wisconsin (by 2 points) and #22 BYU ( by 3 points). Utah State is currently the #6 most productive team in the nation with the #17 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense. This is a really good team and has been over the last few years.
Do not be surprised if this game is rather one-sided with Utah State's superior offense and defense stopping the Rockets on both sides of the ball. As you have guessed, the model predicts that Utah State will be victorious against the Toledo Rockets in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
New Mexico Bowl 2012
The first NCAA FBS bowl this season is the New Mexico Bowl featuring the Nevada Wolfpack from the Mountain West Conference against the University of Arizona Wildcats from the Pacific 12 Conference. So here is how each team looks from the College Football Complex Invasion Sport Production Model.
Arizona finished the regular season at 7-5 while playing against a strength of schedule of 49.50 that was tougher than the average strength of schedule for the "league". Arizona had impressive wins over Oklahoma State (currently ranked #49) and USC (currently ranked #29) and their loss to in state rival Arizona State was their worst of the season and the only one against a team currently ranked outside of the top 25 in the model used on this blog. Rich Rodrigez's Arizona Wildcats are currently the #62 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense. Sound familiar Michigan fans?
The Nevada Wolfpack also finished the regular season at 7-5 against an easier - relative to the "league" as a whole - than average strength of schedule of 80.75. Nevada's most impressive win was against #87 ranked Wyoming. Yes, from the model's perspective the Wolfpack defeated seven teams that were in the bottom 25% of the league as a whole and their worst loss was to the University of South Florida - now ranked #94 in the nation. That said, Nevada did play a close game against both Fresno State and Boise State (both currently ranked in the top 25 using my model). Nevada is currently the #56 ranked team overall with the #28 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense.
Thus the New Mexico Bowl should be very entertaining for those that like high offensive output given both teams are much better on offense than on defense, and I plan on being tuned in to see how the game unfolds. The model "predicts" that Nevada is slightly better than Arizona, so the prediction is that the Nevada Wolfpack will be victorious in the 2012 New Mexico Bowl.
Arizona finished the regular season at 7-5 while playing against a strength of schedule of 49.50 that was tougher than the average strength of schedule for the "league". Arizona had impressive wins over Oklahoma State (currently ranked #49) and USC (currently ranked #29) and their loss to in state rival Arizona State was their worst of the season and the only one against a team currently ranked outside of the top 25 in the model used on this blog. Rich Rodrigez's Arizona Wildcats are currently the #62 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense. Sound familiar Michigan fans?
The Nevada Wolfpack also finished the regular season at 7-5 against an easier - relative to the "league" as a whole - than average strength of schedule of 80.75. Nevada's most impressive win was against #87 ranked Wyoming. Yes, from the model's perspective the Wolfpack defeated seven teams that were in the bottom 25% of the league as a whole and their worst loss was to the University of South Florida - now ranked #94 in the nation. That said, Nevada did play a close game against both Fresno State and Boise State (both currently ranked in the top 25 using my model). Nevada is currently the #56 ranked team overall with the #28 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense.
Thus the New Mexico Bowl should be very entertaining for those that like high offensive output given both teams are much better on offense than on defense, and I plan on being tuned in to see how the game unfolds. The model "predicts" that Nevada is slightly better than Arizona, so the prediction is that the Nevada Wolfpack will be victorious in the 2012 New Mexico Bowl.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Bowl Payout Inequality
Last year the Huffington Post had an article on bowl game payouts and a map of those teams that received bowl game payouts and their relative size. What the article does not do is measure the amount of NCAA Bowl payout inequality, so I thought that I would take up the gauntlet and measure the degree of income inequality among NCAA Bowls for 2011. To do so, we need a measure of inequality, and a well known measure is called a Gini coefficient.
The Gini coefficient measure how the distribution of income (or in this case NCAA bowl payouts) deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. The Gini coefficient is calculated by looking at the population distribution (in this case the 70 bowl participants in 2011) and relating that to the distribution of income (or bowl payouts). A Lorentz curve plots the results, which is the red line below for NCAA Bowl payouts in 2011. The blue line represents a perfectly equal distribution.
The area between the blue and red lines above is the portion of inequality, so if the red and blue lines are the same, then income is perfectly equally distributed and the Gini coefficient equals 0, where if only one team receives all the bowl payouts, then the distribution is perfectly unequally distributed, and the Gini coefficient equals 1.
Running the numbers (I will post next week a step-by-step guide on how to calculate this), I find that the Gini coefficient for 2011 equals 0.503. Is a Gini coefficient of 0.503 high or low? To give some perspective, I downloaded the Gini Index (Gini coefficient * 100) from the World Bank and calculated the percentage of observations that had a lower level of income inequality for various nations around the world, and found that since 2000 about 75% of those nations had a more equal distribution of income than NCAA bowl payouts. Yes, nations such as Iraq have a more equal distribution of income than the NCAA Bowl payouts of 2011.
The Gini coefficient measure how the distribution of income (or in this case NCAA bowl payouts) deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. The Gini coefficient is calculated by looking at the population distribution (in this case the 70 bowl participants in 2011) and relating that to the distribution of income (or bowl payouts). A Lorentz curve plots the results, which is the red line below for NCAA Bowl payouts in 2011. The blue line represents a perfectly equal distribution.
The area between the blue and red lines above is the portion of inequality, so if the red and blue lines are the same, then income is perfectly equally distributed and the Gini coefficient equals 0, where if only one team receives all the bowl payouts, then the distribution is perfectly unequally distributed, and the Gini coefficient equals 1.
Running the numbers (I will post next week a step-by-step guide on how to calculate this), I find that the Gini coefficient for 2011 equals 0.503. Is a Gini coefficient of 0.503 high or low? To give some perspective, I downloaded the Gini Index (Gini coefficient * 100) from the World Bank and calculated the percentage of observations that had a lower level of income inequality for various nations around the world, and found that since 2000 about 75% of those nations had a more equal distribution of income than NCAA bowl payouts. Yes, nations such as Iraq have a more equal distribution of income than the NCAA Bowl payouts of 2011.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Wisconsin Under Bielema
This is a little late due to personal reasons, but I figured better late than never. Brett Bielema, former head football coach of the Wisconsin Badgers has left to become the head football coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks. Bielema has put together a fine group of teams at Wisconsin, so I thought that I would look at how Wisconsin has performed during the last few years of Bielema's tenure as the head football coach at Wisconsin. Bielema started at Wisconsin in 2006, but the model that I use starts in 2008, so I will exclude Bielema's first two seasons.
This year (2012) the Wisconsin Badgers are 8-5 and currently the #25 team in the nation with the #34 most productive offense and the #26 most productive defense. Wisconsin has played an average strength of schedule (59.54) as compared to the rest of the league. Wisconsin has had impressive wins against currently ranked #6 Utah State and their worst performance was against #46 Michigan State. Wisconsin jumped up the rankings two weeks ago with their 70-31 victory against currently #32 ranked Nebraska.
In 2011, the NCAA production model has the Wisconsin Badgers as the most productive team in the nation. Yes, even with Wisconsin's three losses the model has Wisconsin as the best team overall. Also, Wisconsin was not the best offense (rather they finished at #4) nor were they the best defense (finishing at #3). So how can a team with three losses (admittedly two on last minute "Hail Mary" touchdown passes) finish as #1? Remember that the model is looking at on the field performance or more specifically only those statistically significant variables related to turning on field performance into points, not final wins or losses (even thought for the 2012 season the correlation between team rank and winning percentage is over 91% in absolute value). Thus the NCAA production model evaluates team performance based on the statistically significant elements of the game as opposed to final game outcomes. Hence Wisconsin was the most productive team using only the data for the 2011 season, since based on their overall offensive and defensive performance no other team had a higher total performance. Thus relative to all the other teams in the "league" Wisconsin was the most productive.
In 2010 Wisconsin finished 11-2 and were the #9 team overall, with the #12 most productive offense and the #11 most productive defense. Wisconsin's most impressive victory was a 31-18 victory over #4 Ohio State and of their two losses, the least impressive was a 24-34 loss to #36 Michigan State. Wisconsin also lost by two points to #2 TCU in the Rose Bowl.
In 2009 the Badgers finished at 10-3 and were the #27 most productive team in the nation with the #39 offense and the #21 defense. The Badgers defeated #19 Miami (FL.), which was the win against the highest ranked team and of their three losses, the loss to the lowest ranked team was to #59 Northwestern.
In 2008 the Wisconsin Badgers finished at 7-6 and were the #53 most productive team in the league, with the #43 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense. Wisconsin's best win was over #42 Illinois and their worst defeat was to #105 Michigan.
As you can see Bielema has put together a rather impressive resume over the last few years and has leveraged this into a higher paying job at Arkansas.
This year (2012) the Wisconsin Badgers are 8-5 and currently the #25 team in the nation with the #34 most productive offense and the #26 most productive defense. Wisconsin has played an average strength of schedule (59.54) as compared to the rest of the league. Wisconsin has had impressive wins against currently ranked #6 Utah State and their worst performance was against #46 Michigan State. Wisconsin jumped up the rankings two weeks ago with their 70-31 victory against currently #32 ranked Nebraska.
In 2011, the NCAA production model has the Wisconsin Badgers as the most productive team in the nation. Yes, even with Wisconsin's three losses the model has Wisconsin as the best team overall. Also, Wisconsin was not the best offense (rather they finished at #4) nor were they the best defense (finishing at #3). So how can a team with three losses (admittedly two on last minute "Hail Mary" touchdown passes) finish as #1? Remember that the model is looking at on the field performance or more specifically only those statistically significant variables related to turning on field performance into points, not final wins or losses (even thought for the 2012 season the correlation between team rank and winning percentage is over 91% in absolute value). Thus the NCAA production model evaluates team performance based on the statistically significant elements of the game as opposed to final game outcomes. Hence Wisconsin was the most productive team using only the data for the 2011 season, since based on their overall offensive and defensive performance no other team had a higher total performance. Thus relative to all the other teams in the "league" Wisconsin was the most productive.
In 2010 Wisconsin finished 11-2 and were the #9 team overall, with the #12 most productive offense and the #11 most productive defense. Wisconsin's most impressive victory was a 31-18 victory over #4 Ohio State and of their two losses, the least impressive was a 24-34 loss to #36 Michigan State. Wisconsin also lost by two points to #2 TCU in the Rose Bowl.
In 2009 the Badgers finished at 10-3 and were the #27 most productive team in the nation with the #39 offense and the #21 defense. The Badgers defeated #19 Miami (FL.), which was the win against the highest ranked team and of their three losses, the loss to the lowest ranked team was to #59 Northwestern.
In 2008 the Wisconsin Badgers finished at 7-6 and were the #53 most productive team in the league, with the #43 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense. Wisconsin's best win was over #42 Illinois and their worst defeat was to #105 Michigan.
As you can see Bielema has put together a rather impressive resume over the last few years and has leveraged this into a higher paying job at Arkansas.
Monday, December 10, 2012
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 15
Even though there was only one game last week (Navy defeated Army) I updated the NCAA FBS production model to get the most complete estimate of team production. Thus for my posts in the coming weeks on NCAA bowl games I will be using the model as of now. (I will also update it after all the bowl games are complete as well). Here is the final regular season top 25. Thanks to college football stats for providing the data throughout the season!
Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #14
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #13
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | Northern Illinois |
| 4 | Florida State |
| 5 | Notre Dame |
| 6 | Utah State |
| 7 | Georgia |
| 8 | Fresno State |
| 9 | Florida |
| 10 | Ohio State |
| 11 | Cincinnati |
| 12 | Boise State |
| 13 | Texas A&M |
| 14 | LSU |
| 15 | Rutgers |
| 16 | Kansas State |
| 17 | San Jose State |
| 18 | Stanford |
| 19 | Oregon State |
| 20 | North Carolina |
| 21 | UCLA |
| 22 | BYU |
| 23 | Arkansas State |
| 24 | Clemson |
| 25 | Wisconsin |
Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #14
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #13
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2
Thursday, December 6, 2012
South Florida fired Holtz
The University of South Florida fired head football coach Skip Holtz at the end of this third season. As I have been doing over the last few days, let's take a look at the USF Bulls under former head coach Holtz's tenure.
In 2010 the South Florida Bulls were 7-5 in the regular season and after defeating Clemson in their bowl game the Bulls finished 8-5. South Florida's most impressive win was a 23-20 win over #34 ranked Miami (FL) and their worst outing was a 9-13 loss to #63 ranked Syracuse. USF played an average strength of schedule and in terms of the FBS production model, finished as the #60 ranked team in the nation.
In 2011 USF finished 5-7 and bowl ineligible. USF's overall ranking was #62 - nearly identical to the previous season. USF played an average schedule as compared to the rest of the league and had impressive victory over #15 ranked Notre Dame.
This season (2012), the Bulls finished 3-9 and are currently ranked #119 overall with the #123 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense. Given that USF has played an easier than average schedule as compared to the rest of the league, USF's performance is rather woefully.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Southern Mississippi's Johnson,
North Carolina State's O'Brien,
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
In 2010 the South Florida Bulls were 7-5 in the regular season and after defeating Clemson in their bowl game the Bulls finished 8-5. South Florida's most impressive win was a 23-20 win over #34 ranked Miami (FL) and their worst outing was a 9-13 loss to #63 ranked Syracuse. USF played an average strength of schedule and in terms of the FBS production model, finished as the #60 ranked team in the nation.
In 2011 USF finished 5-7 and bowl ineligible. USF's overall ranking was #62 - nearly identical to the previous season. USF played an average schedule as compared to the rest of the league and had impressive victory over #15 ranked Notre Dame.
This season (2012), the Bulls finished 3-9 and are currently ranked #119 overall with the #123 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense. Given that USF has played an easier than average schedule as compared to the rest of the league, USF's performance is rather woefully.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Southern Mississippi's Johnson,
North Carolina State's O'Brien,
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Kentucky Hires Mark Stoops as New Head Football Coach
The University of Kentucky has hired Mark Stoops as their new head football coach. Stoops' was the defensive coordinator at Florida State University since 2010. So let's just take a look at Florida State's defense under Mark Stoops.
2010: Florida State's defense was ranked #24 in the nation, versus Kentucky's #78 ranked defense.
2011: Florida State's defense was ranked #41 in the nation, versus Kentucky's #95 ranked defense.
In 2012 (at the time of Stoop's hiring) Florida State was the #13 ranked defense in the nation versus Kentucky's #79 ranked defense.
All three seasons at FSU the defense was above average and this season is in the top 20. (Recall that FSU has played two non-FBS schools in 2012 - so who know if that matters that much.) On the other hand, FSU had the #105 ranked defense before Stoops arrived, so the dramatic turnaround and consistently above average performance seems to indicate that Stoops has a good defensive system that will benefit Kentucky's football program.
2010: Florida State's defense was ranked #24 in the nation, versus Kentucky's #78 ranked defense.
2011: Florida State's defense was ranked #41 in the nation, versus Kentucky's #95 ranked defense.
In 2012 (at the time of Stoop's hiring) Florida State was the #13 ranked defense in the nation versus Kentucky's #79 ranked defense.
All three seasons at FSU the defense was above average and this season is in the top 20. (Recall that FSU has played two non-FBS schools in 2012 - so who know if that matters that much.) On the other hand, FSU had the #105 ranked defense before Stoops arrived, so the dramatic turnaround and consistently above average performance seems to indicate that Stoops has a good defensive system that will benefit Kentucky's football program.
Southern Mississippi Fires Johnson After One Season
Southern Mississippi University has fired head football coach Ellis Johnson after one season. Well given there is only one season here are the numbers.
2012: 0-12; #120 ranked overall; #116 offense and #112 defense.
This is compared to a team that went 11-2 the season before and had the #38 most productive team overall in 2011.
OK, a lot has been written about Embree's firing at Colorado and racism, but I have not read anything about Johnson's firing as racist. Why not?
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
North Carolina State's O'Brien,
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
2012: 0-12; #120 ranked overall; #116 offense and #112 defense.
This is compared to a team that went 11-2 the season before and had the #38 most productive team overall in 2011.
OK, a lot has been written about Embree's firing at Colorado and racism, but I have not read anything about Johnson's firing as racist. Why not?
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
North Carolina State's O'Brien,
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Price Retires from UTEP
Mike Price is retiring as UTEP's head football coach. Here's the UTEP Miner's football program by the numbers since 2008.
2008: 5-7; overall rank #85; offense #44; defense #111.
2009: 4-8; overall rank #97; offense #66; defense #110.
2010: 6-7; overall rank #82; offense #68; defense #86.
2011: 5-7; overall rank #106; offense #85; defense #101
This season UTEP (at the time of coach Price's retirement) finished at 3-9 and the Miner's were the #107 ranked team overall with the #101 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense.
As you can see UTEP's problem is more on the defensive side of the ball, although the offensive side has been slipping over the last few years. Hopefully for Miner's fans, they can right both sides of the ball over the next few seasons.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
North Carolina State's O'Brien,
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
2008: 5-7; overall rank #85; offense #44; defense #111.
2009: 4-8; overall rank #97; offense #66; defense #110.
2010: 6-7; overall rank #82; offense #68; defense #86.
2011: 5-7; overall rank #106; offense #85; defense #101
This season UTEP (at the time of coach Price's retirement) finished at 3-9 and the Miner's were the #107 ranked team overall with the #101 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense.
As you can see UTEP's problem is more on the defensive side of the ball, although the offensive side has been slipping over the last few years. Hopefully for Miner's fans, they can right both sides of the ball over the next few seasons.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
North Carolina State's O'Brien,
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
North Carolina State Fires Head Football Coach
North Carolina State has fired their head football coach Tom O'Brien. Let's take a look at how NC State has performed since 2008 (first year that I have all the data for the FBS production model).
Starting in 2008 the Wolfpack finished the regular season at 6-6 with a bowl loss to Rutgers resulting in a 6-7 season. NC State's best win that season was against #41 Wake Forest and their worst loss was to #88 South Carolina. NC State played an average schedule as compared to the rest of the league and they finished as the #78 ranked team overall with the #73 offense and #77 defense - all below average.
In 2009, NC State was 5-7 with their best win against #24 Pittsburgh, although two of those five wins were against non-FBS schools. NC State had an average strength of schedule and finished as the #71 team overall, with the #60 offense and the #85 ranked defense.
The following season (2010) NC State finished the regular season at 8-4 and defeated West Virginia in their bowl game. NC State's best win was over #15 ranked West Virginia in the bowl game. NC State finished as the #37 ranked team in the nation with the #43 and #42 offense and defense respectively.
Last season (2011) the Wolfpack finished 8-5 including their win over Louisville in their bowl game. NC State played an average strength of schedule and finished as the #70 ranked team overall with the #59 ranked offense and #66 ranked defense.
This season at the time of O'Brien's firing the NC State Wolfpack were 7-5 and bowl eligible. NC State's best win was over Florida State and their worst loss was to Virginia. NC State when O'Brien was fired was the #67 team overall with the #63 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense.
As the AD at NC State said, the goal is for NC State to be a top 25 team, and that is not where the Wolfpack are yet.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Starting in 2008 the Wolfpack finished the regular season at 6-6 with a bowl loss to Rutgers resulting in a 6-7 season. NC State's best win that season was against #41 Wake Forest and their worst loss was to #88 South Carolina. NC State played an average schedule as compared to the rest of the league and they finished as the #78 ranked team overall with the #73 offense and #77 defense - all below average.
In 2009, NC State was 5-7 with their best win against #24 Pittsburgh, although two of those five wins were against non-FBS schools. NC State had an average strength of schedule and finished as the #71 team overall, with the #60 offense and the #85 ranked defense.
The following season (2010) NC State finished the regular season at 8-4 and defeated West Virginia in their bowl game. NC State's best win was over #15 ranked West Virginia in the bowl game. NC State finished as the #37 ranked team in the nation with the #43 and #42 offense and defense respectively.
Last season (2011) the Wolfpack finished 8-5 including their win over Louisville in their bowl game. NC State played an average strength of schedule and finished as the #70 ranked team overall with the #59 ranked offense and #66 ranked defense.
This season at the time of O'Brien's firing the NC State Wolfpack were 7-5 and bowl eligible. NC State's best win was over Florida State and their worst loss was to Virginia. NC State when O'Brien was fired was the #67 team overall with the #63 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense.
As the AD at NC State said, the goal is for NC State to be a top 25 team, and that is not where the Wolfpack are yet.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Colorado Fired Jon Embree
The University of Colorado has fired head football coach Jon Embree.
Jon Embree's comments after his recent firing.
Given this coaching change has sparked a great deal of controversy, I will look at the NCAA production model under Jon Embree's tenure as head football coach at the University of Colorado starting with this season and then the previous season.
At the time of Embree's firing, Colorado was 1-11 - with their only victory against #117 ranked (at the time) Washington State and their worst loss against FCS Sacramento State. Colorado played a tougher than average schedule than the rest of the "league". Yet even with their difficult schedule, the Buffalo's were the #123 ranked (at the time) team in all of the football bowl subdivision - including the four new teams that will officially be part of the FBS next year. That means that three teams moving up from FCS to FBS were better (from the model's perspective) than Colorado. Colorado had the #121 ranked (at the time) offense and the #124 ranked (at the time) defense.
In 2011 Colorado finished 3-10 with their best victory against #66 ranked Colorado State and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA. Colorado played an average schedule and finished as the #114 ranked team overall with the #83 ranked offense and the #119 ranked defense.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Jon Embree's comments after his recent firing.
Given this coaching change has sparked a great deal of controversy, I will look at the NCAA production model under Jon Embree's tenure as head football coach at the University of Colorado starting with this season and then the previous season.
At the time of Embree's firing, Colorado was 1-11 - with their only victory against #117 ranked (at the time) Washington State and their worst loss against FCS Sacramento State. Colorado played a tougher than average schedule than the rest of the "league". Yet even with their difficult schedule, the Buffalo's were the #123 ranked (at the time) team in all of the football bowl subdivision - including the four new teams that will officially be part of the FBS next year. That means that three teams moving up from FCS to FBS were better (from the model's perspective) than Colorado. Colorado had the #121 ranked (at the time) offense and the #124 ranked (at the time) defense.
In 2011 Colorado finished 3-10 with their best victory against #66 ranked Colorado State and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA. Colorado played an average schedule and finished as the #114 ranked team overall with the #83 ranked offense and the #119 ranked defense.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Purdue's Hope,
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #14
With the conference championships over, here is the latest Top 25 for the NCAA football bowl subdivision using my NCAA FBS production model. Thanks to college football stats for posting the numbers this season!
Congrats to Northern Illinois University on receiving a BCS bowl bid. If you check out the links below, you will see that the model has consistently (for the last half of the season) ranked NIU in the Top 25.
As you can already tell, the model has Alabama more productive than Notre Dame. I will be blogging on each bowl game over the next few weeks, so check back to see how well the model does.
Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #13
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2
Congrats to Northern Illinois University on receiving a BCS bowl bid. If you check out the links below, you will see that the model has consistently (for the last half of the season) ranked NIU in the Top 25.
As you can already tell, the model has Alabama more productive than Notre Dame. I will be blogging on each bowl game over the next few weeks, so check back to see how well the model does.
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | Northern Illinois |
| 4 | Florida State |
| 5 | Notre Dame |
| 6 | Georgia |
| 7 | Utah State |
| 8 | Fresno State |
| 9 | Florida |
| 10 | Boise State |
| 11 | Ohio State |
| 12 | LSU |
| 13 | Texas A&M |
| 14 | San Jose State |
| 15 | Kansas State |
| 16 | Stanford |
| 17 | Oregon State |
| 18 | Oklahoma |
| 19 | Clemson |
| 20 | North Carolina |
| 21 | Wisconsin |
| 22 | South Carolina |
| 23 | Arkansas State |
| 24 | BYU |
| 25 | UCF |
Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #13
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2
Saturday, December 1, 2012
2012 Big Ten Championship Game
This year's Big Ten championship game will be between
the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Wisconsin Badgers and
will be held tonight in Indianapolis with the winner headed to the Rose Bowl.
Nebraska is currently the #18 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #15 ranked offense and the currently #29 ranked defense. Wisconsin is currently the #31 ranked team overall with the currently #50 ranked offense and the currently #22 ranked defense. Nebraska has played a tougher than average schedule as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule, while Wisconsin has played an average schedule as compared to the "league" overall. Given the model has Nebraska ranked higher than Wisconsin, the model would predict that the Nebraska will be victorious tonight.
Nebraska is currently the #18 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #15 ranked offense and the currently #29 ranked defense. Wisconsin is currently the #31 ranked team overall with the currently #50 ranked offense and the currently #22 ranked defense. Nebraska has played a tougher than average schedule as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule, while Wisconsin has played an average schedule as compared to the "league" overall. Given the model has Nebraska ranked higher than Wisconsin, the model would predict that the Nebraska will be victorious tonight.
2012 SEC Championship Game
This year's SEC championship game will be between
the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs and
will be held today in Atlanta Georgia.
Alabama is currently the #1 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #6 ranked offense and the currently #2 ranked defense. Georgia is currently the #7 ranked team overall with the currently #5 ranked offense and the currently #19 ranked defense. Both teams have played average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule. Given the model has Alabama ranked higher than Georgia, the model would predict that Alabama will be victorious tonight.
Alabama is currently the #1 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #6 ranked offense and the currently #2 ranked defense. Georgia is currently the #7 ranked team overall with the currently #5 ranked offense and the currently #19 ranked defense. Both teams have played average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule. Given the model has Alabama ranked higher than Georgia, the model would predict that Alabama will be victorious tonight.
2012 ACC Championship Game
This year's ACC championship game will be between Georgia Tech and Florida State and
will be held today in Charlotte North Carolina with the winner headed to the Orange Bowl.
Georgia Tech is currently the #56 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #29 ranked offense and the currently #73 ranked defense. Florida State is currently the #5 ranked team overall with the currently #8 ranked offense and the currently #13 ranked defense. Florida State has played an easier schedule as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule while Georgia Tech has played an average schedule. Given the model has Florida State ranked higher than Georgia Tech, the model would predict that Florida State University will be victorious tonight.
Georgia Tech is currently the #56 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #29 ranked offense and the currently #73 ranked defense. Florida State is currently the #5 ranked team overall with the currently #8 ranked offense and the currently #13 ranked defense. Florida State has played an easier schedule as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule while Georgia Tech has played an average schedule. Given the model has Florida State ranked higher than Georgia Tech, the model would predict that Florida State University will be victorious tonight.
2012 SunBelt Championship Game
This year's SunBelt championship game will be between
the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders - so we have red versus blue. Let's see if how these teams have performed using my FBS college production model.
Arkansas State is currently the 30th ranked offense and the currently #39 ranked defense and overall they are the #39th ranked team in the nation. Middle Tennessee State is currently the #55 ranked team overall with the currently 64th ranked offense and the currently 47th ranked defense. Both teams have played an average schedule as compared to the "league" overall. Given the model has Arkansas State ranked higher than Middle Tennessee State, the model would predict that the Red Wolves will be victorious over the Blue Raiders.
Arkansas State is currently the 30th ranked offense and the currently #39 ranked defense and overall they are the #39th ranked team in the nation. Middle Tennessee State is currently the #55 ranked team overall with the currently 64th ranked offense and the currently 47th ranked defense. Both teams have played an average schedule as compared to the "league" overall. Given the model has Arkansas State ranked higher than Middle Tennessee State, the model would predict that the Red Wolves will be victorious over the Blue Raiders.
2012 CUSA Conference Championship Game
This year CUSA's championship game will be between
the University of Central Florida (UCF) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and
will be held today at Tulsa.
UCF is currently the #28 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #19 ranked offense and the currently #45 ranked defense. Tulsa is currently the #34 ranked team overall with the currently #21 ranked offense and the currently #48 ranked defense. Both teams have played easier than average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule. Given the model has UCF ranked higher than Tulsa, the model would predict that the UCF will be victorious this afternoon.
UCF is currently the #28 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #19 ranked offense and the currently #45 ranked defense. Tulsa is currently the #34 ranked team overall with the currently #21 ranked offense and the currently #48 ranked defense. Both teams have played easier than average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule. Given the model has UCF ranked higher than Tulsa, the model would predict that the UCF will be victorious this afternoon.
Friday, November 30, 2012
2012 PAC 12 Conference Championship Game
This year PAC12 Conference's championship game will be between
the Stanford Cardinal and the UCLA Bruins and
will be held on Friday at Stanford.
Stanford is currently the #19 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #44 ranked offense and the currently #12 ranked defense. UCLA is currently the #27 ranked team overall with the currently #14 ranked offense and the currently #56 ranked defense. Both teams have played average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule. Given the model has Stanford ranked higher than UCLA, the model would predict that the Stanford Cardinal will be victorious tonight.
Stanford is currently the #19 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #44 ranked offense and the currently #12 ranked defense. UCLA is currently the #27 ranked team overall with the currently #14 ranked offense and the currently #56 ranked defense. Both teams have played average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule. Given the model has Stanford ranked higher than UCLA, the model would predict that the Stanford Cardinal will be victorious tonight.
2012 MAC Championship Game
This year the Mid-American Conference's championship game will be between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Kent State Golden Flashes and will be held on Friday at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan. This game will feature two nationally ranked BCS teams with Kent State ranked in the BCS poll at #17 and Northern Illinois ranked at #21. My model has the two teams switched, so here are the basics.
Kent State is currently the #25 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #20 ranked offense and the currently #38 ranked defense. Northern Illinois University is currently the #3 ranked team overall with the currently #3 ranked offense and the currently #15 ranked defense. Both teams have played relatively easy schedules with NIU actually playing a strength of schedule that is more than two times the standard deviation from the average FBS strength of schedule. Still, since the model has Northern Illinois University higher ranked in both offense, defense and overall, the model would predict that the NIU Huskies will be victorious tonight.
Kent State is currently the #25 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #20 ranked offense and the currently #38 ranked defense. Northern Illinois University is currently the #3 ranked team overall with the currently #3 ranked offense and the currently #15 ranked defense. Both teams have played relatively easy schedules with NIU actually playing a strength of schedule that is more than two times the standard deviation from the average FBS strength of schedule. Still, since the model has Northern Illinois University higher ranked in both offense, defense and overall, the model would predict that the NIU Huskies will be victorious tonight.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Purdue Fires Head Football Coach
Purdue University has fired head football coach Danny Hope, and declining attendance seems to be a key factor. Remember that Hope received a two year contract extension last year, not that it matters now. So let's take a look at the Purdue Boilermakers using my Complex Invasion College Football production model to see how Purdue's football team has fared under Hope's tenure.
In 2009 Purdue went 5-7 and were bowl ineligible. Purdue's most impressive victory was against #9 ranked Ohio State and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Minnesota. Purdue finished as the #73 ranked team overall with the #78 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
The following season, Purdue went 4-8 in the regular season. Purdue's best win was against #75 ranked Northwestern and their worst loss was to #84 ranked in-state rival Indiana. Purdue finished as the #92 ranked team overall with the #104 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.
In 2011 Purdue finished 6-6 in the regular season and finished with a win over #53 ranked Western Michigan to finish the season 7-6. Purdue finished as the #71 ranked team overall, with the #64 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense against an average strength of schedule for that season.
This year Purdue is 6-6 and bowl eligible at the time of Hope's firing. Purdue is currently the #61 ranked team overall with the currently #52 ranked offense and the currently #64 ranked defense. Purdue is currently ranked above Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois - but this was not enough to keep Hope employed as the Boilermaker's head football coach.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
In 2009 Purdue went 5-7 and were bowl ineligible. Purdue's most impressive victory was against #9 ranked Ohio State and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Minnesota. Purdue finished as the #73 ranked team overall with the #78 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
The following season, Purdue went 4-8 in the regular season. Purdue's best win was against #75 ranked Northwestern and their worst loss was to #84 ranked in-state rival Indiana. Purdue finished as the #92 ranked team overall with the #104 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.
In 2011 Purdue finished 6-6 in the regular season and finished with a win over #53 ranked Western Michigan to finish the season 7-6. Purdue finished as the #71 ranked team overall, with the #64 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense against an average strength of schedule for that season.
This year Purdue is 6-6 and bowl eligible at the time of Hope's firing. Purdue is currently the #61 ranked team overall with the currently #52 ranked offense and the currently #64 ranked defense. Purdue is currently ranked above Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois - but this was not enough to keep Hope employed as the Boilermaker's head football coach.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Smith out at Arkansas
John L. Smith will not be back at the helm as the head football coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks next season. Smith was a late hire as Arkansas fired Bobby Petrino late in the coaching carousel last year, and was only hired for this season. So let's look at the Razorback's this season under former head coach Smith using the FBS college production model.
The Razorbacks finished the season at 4-8 and bowl ineligible. First, Arkansas has played a much tougher schedule compared to the average strength of schedule for this season - five of their eight losses against currently ranked top 25 teams in the production model. That said, Arkansas three of the four Arkansas wins were against teams currently ranked greater than 100 in the FBS college production model (#125 Jacksonville State, #106 Auburn and #111 Kentucky). Arkansas best victory (19-15) was against currently ranked #34 Tulsa and their worst defeat was a 27-30 loss against currently ranked #50 Mississippi. Even with this difficult schedule, the Razorbacks are currently the #96 team overall - finishing third from the bottom in the SEC; and currently have both the #87 ranked offense and defense.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
The Razorbacks finished the season at 4-8 and bowl ineligible. First, Arkansas has played a much tougher schedule compared to the average strength of schedule for this season - five of their eight losses against currently ranked top 25 teams in the production model. That said, Arkansas three of the four Arkansas wins were against teams currently ranked greater than 100 in the FBS college production model (#125 Jacksonville State, #106 Auburn and #111 Kentucky). Arkansas best victory (19-15) was against currently ranked #34 Tulsa and their worst defeat was a 27-30 loss against currently ranked #50 Mississippi. Even with this difficult schedule, the Razorbacks are currently the #96 team overall - finishing third from the bottom in the SEC; and currently have both the #87 ranked offense and defense.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Boston College Fires Spaziani
Boston College has fired head football coach Frank Spaziani, so as I have done previously let's take a look at the Boston College Eagles during Spaziani's four year tenure as BC's head football coach using my FBS college football production model. In Spaziani's first year (2009) BC went 8-4 in the regular season and finished 8-5 with a 24-13 loss to USC in the Emerald Bowl. Boston College's most impressive win was against #13 ranked Central Michigan and their least impressive outing was a 16-20 loss against #54 Notre Dame. Boston College played a much tougher schedule than the average FBS schedule during 2009, with a strength of schedule (SOS) of 53.23 as compared to the average of 63.27. In terms of overall productivity, BC finished as the #51 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense.
In Spaziani's second year at the helm, the BC Eagles finished the regular season at 7-5 with a loss to Nevada in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl finishing the season at 7-6. BC had a tough schedule again as compared to the FBS schools, having a SOS of 51.15 vs. the average of 62.92. The Eagles finished ranked #59 overall, with their offense ranked #95 and their defense ranked #7. Thus from the previous year, the team's overall performance (in terms of productivity) declined slightly with a big drop in offense and a large increase in defense.
The Boston College Eagles had a large drop both in winning percent and in terms of on-field production in 2011. BC finished 4-8 (bowl ineligible) with their most impressive win against #70 ranked North Carolina State and their less impressive game resulting in a one point loss to #113 ranked Duke. BC's on field production left them ranked #97 overall, #110 in terms of points scored and #84 in terms of points given up, all worst than the season before. Coupled with an average SOS relative to the rest of the league, I would sum up this season as a disappointment to Eagles fans.
This season was basically a repeat of last season. While the Eagles had two fewer victories finishing 2-10, the team's overall on-field production left them currently ranked as the #102 team in FBS football, with a slight improvement (currently) as the #106 ranked offense and a slight decline in terms of defense as the currently ranked #86 defense. Again, BC's strength of schedule was average as compared to the FBS "league" overall.
Given a steady decline in terms of winning percent and on-field production, BC has decided to move in a different direction in terms of leadership for their football team.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
In Spaziani's second year at the helm, the BC Eagles finished the regular season at 7-5 with a loss to Nevada in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl finishing the season at 7-6. BC had a tough schedule again as compared to the FBS schools, having a SOS of 51.15 vs. the average of 62.92. The Eagles finished ranked #59 overall, with their offense ranked #95 and their defense ranked #7. Thus from the previous year, the team's overall performance (in terms of productivity) declined slightly with a big drop in offense and a large increase in defense.
The Boston College Eagles had a large drop both in winning percent and in terms of on-field production in 2011. BC finished 4-8 (bowl ineligible) with their most impressive win against #70 ranked North Carolina State and their less impressive game resulting in a one point loss to #113 ranked Duke. BC's on field production left them ranked #97 overall, #110 in terms of points scored and #84 in terms of points given up, all worst than the season before. Coupled with an average SOS relative to the rest of the league, I would sum up this season as a disappointment to Eagles fans.
This season was basically a repeat of last season. While the Eagles had two fewer victories finishing 2-10, the team's overall on-field production left them currently ranked as the #102 team in FBS football, with a slight improvement (currently) as the #106 ranked offense and a slight decline in terms of defense as the currently ranked #86 defense. Again, BC's strength of schedule was average as compared to the FBS "league" overall.
Given a steady decline in terms of winning percent and on-field production, BC has decided to move in a different direction in terms of leadership for their football team.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
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