Tonight's Chick-fil-A Bowl has the Virginia Cavaliers out of the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Auburn Tigers from the Southeastern Conference.
This season the Virginia Cavaliers are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 58.92. Virginia's best win was against currently ranked #9 Florida State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #33 Virginia Tech. To date, the Cavaliers are the #55 ranked team overall, with the #82 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense.
The Auburn Tigers are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 51.25. Auburn's best win was against currently ranked #7 South Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #68 Clemson. To date, the Tigers are the #80 ranked team overall, with the #77 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Virginia better than Auburn, and hence expect Virginia to win the Chick-fil-A Bowl today.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (or the recently fired head football coaches bowl) pits the Illinois Fighting Illini of the Big 10 against the UCLA Bruins of the Pac 12. Illinois recently hired Tim Beckman (University of Toledo head coach) as the replacement for Ron Zook and UCLA has hired Jim Mora replacing Rick Neuhesil.
This season the Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 63.08. Illinois's best win was against currently ranked #20 Arkansas State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #101 Minnesota. To date, the Fighting Illini are the #48 ranked team overall, with the #94 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.
The The UCLA Bruins are 6-7. UCLA had to get the NCAA to approve a waiver for UCLA to be bowl eligible, since UCLA has a losing record. UCLA has a strength of schedule equal to 53.08. UCLA's best win was against currently ranked #35 California, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #96 Arizona. To date, the Bruins are the #95 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Illinois better than UCLA, and hence expect Illinois to win the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl today.
This season the Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 63.08. Illinois's best win was against currently ranked #20 Arkansas State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #101 Minnesota. To date, the Fighting Illini are the #48 ranked team overall, with the #94 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.
The The UCLA Bruins are 6-7. UCLA had to get the NCAA to approve a waiver for UCLA to be bowl eligible, since UCLA has a losing record. UCLA has a strength of schedule equal to 53.08. UCLA's best win was against currently ranked #35 California, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #96 Arizona. To date, the Bruins are the #95 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Illinois better than UCLA, and hence expect Illinois to win the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl today.
2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowl
In today's Autozone Liberty Bowl we have the Cincinnati Bearcats from the Big East Conference facing the Vanderbilt Commodores out of the Southeastern Conference.
This season the Cincinnati Bearcats are 9-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 70.83. Cincinnati's best win was against currently ranked #24 North Carolina State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #72 Tennessee. To date, the Bearcats are the #19 ranked team overall, with the #24 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 59.17. Vanderbilt's best win was against currently ranked #63 Wake Forest, and their worst loss was also against currently ranked #72 Tennessee. To date, the Commodores are the #36 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Cincinnati better than Vanderbilt, and hence expect Cincinnati to win the AutoZone Liberty Bowl today.
This season the Cincinnati Bearcats are 9-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 70.83. Cincinnati's best win was against currently ranked #24 North Carolina State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #72 Tennessee. To date, the Bearcats are the #19 ranked team overall, with the #24 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 59.17. Vanderbilt's best win was against currently ranked #63 Wake Forest, and their worst loss was also against currently ranked #72 Tennessee. To date, the Commodores are the #36 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Cincinnati better than Vanderbilt, and hence expect Cincinnati to win the AutoZone Liberty Bowl today.
2011 Hyundai Sun Bowl
In the Hyundai Sun Bowl we have the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets from the ACC playing the Utah Utes out of the Pac 12.
This season the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 66.75. Georgia Tech's best win was against currently ranked #18 North Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #55 Virginia. To date, the Yellow Jackets are the #11 ranked team overall, with the #11 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense.
The Utah Utes are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 77.58. Utah's best win was against currently ranked #41 Pittsburgh, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #118 Colorado. To date, the Utes are the #31 ranked team overall, with the #62 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Georgia Tech better than Utah, and hence expect Georgia Tech to win the Hyundai Sun Bowl today.
This season the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 66.75. Georgia Tech's best win was against currently ranked #18 North Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #55 Virginia. To date, the Yellow Jackets are the #11 ranked team overall, with the #11 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense.
The Utah Utes are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 77.58. Utah's best win was against currently ranked #41 Pittsburgh, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #118 Colorado. To date, the Utes are the #31 ranked team overall, with the #62 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Georgia Tech better than Utah, and hence expect Georgia Tech to win the Hyundai Sun Bowl today.
2011 Meineke Car Care of Texas
In today's Meineke Car Care Bowl we have the Texas A&M Aggies currently of the Big 12 conference (moving to the SEC next season) against the Northwestern Wildcats of the Big 10 conference.
This season the Texas A&M Aggies are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 56.17. Texas A&M's best win was against currently ranked #26 Baylor, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Aggies are the #43 ranked team overall, with the #45 ranked offense and the #39 ranked defense.
The Northwestern Wildcats are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 66.67. Northwestern's best win was against currently ranked #57 Nebraska, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #66 Army. To date, the Wildcats are the #77 ranked team overall, with the #49 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Texas A&M better than Northwestern, and hence expect Texas A&M to win the Meineke Care Care Bowl today.
This season the Texas A&M Aggies are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 56.17. Texas A&M's best win was against currently ranked #26 Baylor, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Aggies are the #43 ranked team overall, with the #45 ranked offense and the #39 ranked defense.
The Northwestern Wildcats are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 66.67. Northwestern's best win was against currently ranked #57 Nebraska, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #66 Army. To date, the Wildcats are the #77 ranked team overall, with the #49 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Texas A&M better than Northwestern, and hence expect Texas A&M to win the Meineke Care Care Bowl today.
Friday, December 30, 2011
2011 Insight Bowl
Tonight the Iowa Hawkeyes from the Big 10 conference face the Oklahoma Sooners from the Big 12 conference in the Insight Bowl tonight.
This season the Iowa Hawkeyes are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 72.92. Iowa's best win was against currently ranked #14 Michigan, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #101 Minnesota. To date, the Hawkeyes are the #54 ranked team overall, with the #42 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense.
The Oklahoma Sooners are 9-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 54.42. Oklahoma's best win was against currently ranked #9 Florida State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #100 Texas Tech. To date, the Sooner's are the #16 ranked team overall, with the #16 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Oklahoma better than Iowa, and hence expect Oklahoma to win the Insight Bowl today.
This season the Iowa Hawkeyes are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 72.92. Iowa's best win was against currently ranked #14 Michigan, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #101 Minnesota. To date, the Hawkeyes are the #54 ranked team overall, with the #42 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense.
The Oklahoma Sooners are 9-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 54.42. Oklahoma's best win was against currently ranked #9 Florida State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #100 Texas Tech. To date, the Sooner's are the #16 ranked team overall, with the #16 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Oklahoma better than Iowa, and hence expect Oklahoma to win the Insight Bowl today.
2011 Music City Bowl
In today's Music City Bowl we have the Mississippi State Bulldogs out of the Southeast conference against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons out of the Atlantic Coast conference.
This season the Mississippi State Bulldogs are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 59.92. Mississippi State's best win was against currently ranked #39 Louisiana Tech, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #80 Auburn. To date, the Bulldogs are the #46 ranked team overall, with the #68 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 60.08. Wake Forest's best win was against currently ranked #9 Florida State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #82 Syracuse. To date, the Demon Deacons are the #63 ranked team overall, with the #56 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Mississippi State better than Wake Forest, and hence expect Mississippi State to win the Music City Bowl today.
This season the Mississippi State Bulldogs are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 59.92. Mississippi State's best win was against currently ranked #39 Louisiana Tech, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #80 Auburn. To date, the Bulldogs are the #46 ranked team overall, with the #68 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 60.08. Wake Forest's best win was against currently ranked #9 Florida State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #82 Syracuse. To date, the Demon Deacons are the #63 ranked team overall, with the #56 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Mississippi State better than Wake Forest, and hence expect Mississippi State to win the Music City Bowl today.
2011 Pinstripe Bowl
In the Pinstripe Bowl has the Rutgers Scarlet Knights out of the Big East conference against the Iowa State Cyclones out of the Big 12 conference.
This season the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 59.42. Rutgers' best win was against currently ranked #19 Cincinnati, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #74 Connecticut. To date, the Scarlet Knights are the #69 ranked team overall, with the #107 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense.
The Iowa State Cyclones are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 55.75. Iowa State's best win was against currently ranked #2 Oklahoma State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Cyclones are the #99 ranked team overall, with the #111 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Rutgers better than Iowa State, and hence expect Rutgers to win the Pinstripe Bowl today.
This season the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 59.42. Rutgers' best win was against currently ranked #19 Cincinnati, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #74 Connecticut. To date, the Scarlet Knights are the #69 ranked team overall, with the #107 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense.
The Iowa State Cyclones are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 55.75. Iowa State's best win was against currently ranked #2 Oklahoma State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Cyclones are the #99 ranked team overall, with the #111 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Rutgers better than Iowa State, and hence expect Rutgers to win the Pinstripe Bowl today.
2011 Armed Forces Bowl
The 2011 Armed Forces Bowl pits the BYU Cougars - now an independent - against the Tulsa University Golden Hurricane from Conference USA.
This season the BYU Cougars are 9-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 72.00. BYU's best win was against currently ranked #38 UCF, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #40 Texas. To date, the Cougars are the #41 ranked team overall, with the #74 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 58.25. Tulsa's best win was also against currently ranked #38 UCF, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #16 Oklahoma. To date, the Golden Hurricane's are the #37 ranked team overall, with the #31 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Tulsa better than BYU, and hence expect Tulsa to win the Armed Forces Bowl today.
This season the BYU Cougars are 9-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 72.00. BYU's best win was against currently ranked #38 UCF, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #40 Texas. To date, the Cougars are the #41 ranked team overall, with the #74 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 58.25. Tulsa's best win was also against currently ranked #38 UCF, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #16 Oklahoma. To date, the Golden Hurricane's are the #37 ranked team overall, with the #31 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Tulsa better than BYU, and hence expect Tulsa to win the Armed Forces Bowl today.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
2011 Valero Alamo Bowl
In the 2011 Valero Alamo Bowl we have the Washington Huskies of the Pacific 12 conference against the Baylor Bears of the Big 12 conference.
This season the Washington Huskies are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 63.08. Washington's best win was against currently ranked #31 Utah, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #93 Oregon State. To date, the Huskies are the #75 ranked team overall, with the #36 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense.
The Baylor Bears are 9-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 59.83. Baylor's best win was against currently ranked #12 TCU, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Bears are the #26 ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Baylor better than Washington, and hence expect Baylor to win the Valero Alamo Bowl today.
This season the Washington Huskies are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 63.08. Washington's best win was against currently ranked #31 Utah, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #93 Oregon State. To date, the Huskies are the #75 ranked team overall, with the #36 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense.
The Baylor Bears are 9-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 59.83. Baylor's best win was against currently ranked #12 TCU, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Bears are the #26 ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Baylor better than Washington, and hence expect Baylor to win the Valero Alamo Bowl today.
2011 Champs Sports Bowl
The 2011 Champs Sports Bowl has the Florida State Seminoles of the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, which is an independent.
This season the Florida State Seminoles are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 65.58. Florida State's best win was against currently ranked #24 North Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #68 Clemson. To date, the Seminoles are the #9 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 48.75. Notre Dame's best win was against currently ranked #15 Michigan State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #47 University of South Florida. To date, the Fighting Irish are the #58 ranked team overall, with the #63 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Florida State better than Notre Dame, and hence expect Florida State to win the Champs Sports Bowl today.
This season the Florida State Seminoles are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 65.58. Florida State's best win was against currently ranked #24 North Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #68 Clemson. To date, the Seminoles are the #9 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 48.75. Notre Dame's best win was against currently ranked #15 Michigan State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #47 University of South Florida. To date, the Fighting Irish are the #58 ranked team overall, with the #63 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Florida State better than Notre Dame, and hence expect Florida State to win the Champs Sports Bowl today.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
2011 Holiday Bowl
Today's Holiday Bowl pits the University of California Golden Bears of the Pac 12 conference against the University of Texas Longhorns of the Big 12 conference.
This season the California Golden Bears are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 70.00. Cal's best win was against currently ranked #31 Utah, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #95 UCLA. To date, the Golden Bears are the #35 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.
The Texas Longhorns are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 58.92. Texas's best win was against currently ranked #41 BYU, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Longhorns are the #40 ranked team overall, with the #78 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks the California Golden Bears better than the University of Texas, and hence expect California to win the Holiday Bowl today.
This season the California Golden Bears are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 70.00. Cal's best win was against currently ranked #31 Utah, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #95 UCLA. To date, the Golden Bears are the #35 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.
The Texas Longhorns are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 58.92. Texas's best win was against currently ranked #41 BYU, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #51 Kansas State. To date, the Longhorns are the #40 ranked team overall, with the #78 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks the California Golden Bears better than the University of Texas, and hence expect California to win the Holiday Bowl today.
2011 Military Bowl
Today's Military bowl pits the University of Toledo out of the Mid American conference against Air Force out of the Mountain West conference.
This season the University of Toledo Rockets are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 67.42. Toledo's best win was against currently ranked #13 Temple, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #82 Syracuse. To date, the Rockets are the #17 ranked team overall, with the #6 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense.
The Air Force Falcons are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 69.83. Air Force's best win was against currently ranked #49 Navy, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #58 Notre Dame. To date, the Falcons are the #29 ranked team overall, with the #15 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Toledo better than Air Force, and hence expect Toledo to win the Military Bowl today.
This season the University of Toledo Rockets are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 67.42. Toledo's best win was against currently ranked #13 Temple, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #82 Syracuse. To date, the Rockets are the #17 ranked team overall, with the #6 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense.
The Air Force Falcons are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 69.83. Air Force's best win was against currently ranked #49 Navy, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #58 Notre Dame. To date, the Falcons are the #29 ranked team overall, with the #15 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Toledo better than Air Force, and hence expect Toledo to win the Military Bowl today.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Purdue Extends Danny Hopes Contract
ESPN reports that Purdue extends head football coach Danny Hope's contract for an additional two years. So, let' take a look at how Purdue has fared during Hope's tenure.
In 2011, Purdue 6-6 as of today's games and ranked #90 overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense. In 2010 Purdue was the #96 ranked team overall, the #73 ranked offense and had the #103 ranked defense. In 2009, Purdue had the #70 ranked team overall with the #68 offense and the #71 defense.
So Purdue has been, well below average but obviously good enough for the university to extend Hope's contract. This got me to thinking how do teams perform with and without coaching changes? I will try to look at this later next year.
In 2011, Purdue 6-6 as of today's games and ranked #90 overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense. In 2010 Purdue was the #96 ranked team overall, the #73 ranked offense and had the #103 ranked defense. In 2009, Purdue had the #70 ranked team overall with the #68 offense and the #71 defense.
So Purdue has been, well below average but obviously good enough for the university to extend Hope's contract. This got me to thinking how do teams perform with and without coaching changes? I will try to look at this later next year.
2011 Belk Bowl
The other bowl game today pits the Louisville Cardinals from the Big East Conference against the North Carolina State Wolfpack from the ACC.
This season the Louisville Cardinals are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 61.83. Louisville's best win was against currently ranked #25 West Virginia, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #83 Pittsburgh. To date, the Cardinals are the #70 ranked team overall, with the #86 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 61.08. North Carolina State's best win was against currently ranked #18 North Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #85 Boston College. To date, the Wolfpack are the #24 ranked team overall, with the #60 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks North Carolina State better than Louisville, and hence expect North Carolina State to win the Belk Bowl today.
This season the Louisville Cardinals are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 61.83. Louisville's best win was against currently ranked #25 West Virginia, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #83 Pittsburgh. To date, the Cardinals are the #70 ranked team overall, with the #86 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 61.08. North Carolina State's best win was against currently ranked #18 North Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #85 Boston College. To date, the Wolfpack are the #24 ranked team overall, with the #60 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks North Carolina State better than Louisville, and hence expect North Carolina State to win the Belk Bowl today.
2011 Little Ceasers Bowl
In the first of two bowls today (at least chronologically how I am writing these blogs) the Western Michigan Broncos from the Mid-American Conference face the Purdue Boilermakers of the Big 10 Conference.
This season the Western Michigan Broncos are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 71.58. Western Michigan's best win was against currently ranked #67 Miami (OH), and their worst loss was against currently ranked #76 Eastern Michigan. To date, the Broncos are the #62 ranked team overall, with the #23 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense.
The Purdue Boilermakers are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 66.58. Purdue's best win was against currently ranked #48 Illinois, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #92 Rice. To date, the Boilermakers are the #90 ranked team overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Western Michigan better than Purdue, and hence expect Western Michigan to win the Little Caesars Bowl today.
This season the Western Michigan Broncos are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 71.58. Western Michigan's best win was against currently ranked #67 Miami (OH), and their worst loss was against currently ranked #76 Eastern Michigan. To date, the Broncos are the #62 ranked team overall, with the #23 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense.
The Purdue Boilermakers are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 66.58. Purdue's best win was against currently ranked #48 Illinois, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #92 Rice. To date, the Boilermakers are the #90 ranked team overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Western Michigan better than Purdue, and hence expect Western Michigan to win the Little Caesars Bowl today.
Monday, December 26, 2011
2011 Independence Bowl
Today's Independence Bowl pits the University of Missouri Tigers - currently of the Big 12 Conference - against the University of North Carolina Tar Heels of the ACC, in what judging from the model should be an excellent game today.
This season the Missouri Tigers are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 62.42. Missouri 's best win was against currently ranked #43 Texas A&M, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #64 Arizona State. To date, the Tigers are the #22 ranked team overall, with the #29 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense.
The University of North Carolina Tar Heels are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 63.33. North Carolina's best win was against currently ranked #55 Virginia, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #68 Clemson. To date, the Tar Heels are the #18 ranked team overall, with the #25 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks North Carolina slightly better than Missouri, and hence expect North Carolina to win the Independence Bowl today.
This season the Missouri Tigers are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 62.42. Missouri 's best win was against currently ranked #43 Texas A&M, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #64 Arizona State. To date, the Tigers are the #22 ranked team overall, with the #29 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense.
The University of North Carolina Tar Heels are 7-5 with a strength of schedule equal to 63.33. North Carolina's best win was against currently ranked #55 Virginia, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #68 Clemson. To date, the Tar Heels are the #18 ranked team overall, with the #25 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks North Carolina slightly better than Missouri, and hence expect North Carolina to win the Independence Bowl today.
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Mountain West Requests Automatic Qualifyer for BCS Bowls
The Mountain West Conference has requested an automatic qualification for the next two bowl seasons. Frankly, I am not aware of the rules/requirements for a current non-AQ conference to become eligible as an AQ conference. I hope to find this out over the next few weeks, as I plan on coming back to how conferences play against each other over the last few seasons toward the end of January. I will look at how they compare head-to-head, overall and against only BCS conference opponents.
For now let's just take a look at how the Mountain West Conference has fared against BCS opponents both during the regular and bowl games from 2008 to 2010 - the time period the Mountain West is using in making their AQ request. (I will look at this for this year later.)
In 2008, the Mountain West Conference was 10-15 against BCS opponents for a winning percentage of 0.667.
In 2009, the Mountain West Conference was 6-15 against BCS opponents for a winning percentage of 0.400.
In 2010, the Mountain West Conference was 6-14 against BCS opponents for a winning percentage of 0.429.
That is a 0.500 record against BCS opponents over those three years. Think about that - the Mountain West Conference has won as many games as they have lost over those three years against BCS conferences.
For now let's just take a look at how the Mountain West Conference has fared against BCS opponents both during the regular and bowl games from 2008 to 2010 - the time period the Mountain West is using in making their AQ request. (I will look at this for this year later.)
In 2008, the Mountain West Conference was 10-15 against BCS opponents for a winning percentage of 0.667.
In 2009, the Mountain West Conference was 6-15 against BCS opponents for a winning percentage of 0.400.
In 2010, the Mountain West Conference was 6-14 against BCS opponents for a winning percentage of 0.429.
That is a 0.500 record against BCS opponents over those three years. Think about that - the Mountain West Conference has won as many games as they have lost over those three years against BCS conferences.
2011 Hawaii Bowl
For those celebrating - Merry Christmas! Today's game pits the Nevada Wolfpack of the Western Athletic Conference against the University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles from Conference USA.
This season the Nevada Wolfpack are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 76.50. Nevada's best win was against currently ranked #78 Hawaii, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #100 Texas Tech. To date, the Wolfpack are the #34 ranked team overall, with the #17 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense.
The University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles are 11-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 72.15. USM's best win was against currently ranked #4 Houston, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #106 UAB. To date, the Golden Eagles are the #32 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks USM slightly better than Nevada, and hence expect the University of Southern Mississippi to win the Hawaii Bowl today.
This season the Nevada Wolfpack are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 76.50. Nevada's best win was against currently ranked #78 Hawaii, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #100 Texas Tech. To date, the Wolfpack are the #34 ranked team overall, with the #17 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense.
The University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles are 11-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 72.15. USM's best win was against currently ranked #4 Houston, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #106 UAB. To date, the Golden Eagles are the #32 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks USM slightly better than Nevada, and hence expect the University of Southern Mississippi to win the Hawaii Bowl today.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Hawaii Hires Norm Chow
The University of Hawaii has hired Utah offensive coordinator Norm Chow as their new head football coach. Let's take a look at how head coach Chow's offenses have performed over the last two seasons. As of now (end of regular season) Utah has the #62 ranked offense in the football bowl subdivision according to the NCAA production model. Last year - while at UCLA - the UCLA Bruins were the #100 most productive offense, and the year before UCLA was the #83 most productive offense. Thus recently not much in terms of performance, but head coach Chow has had a plethora of great offensive players as a coach, and Hawaii is looking to turning around their football program with head coach Chow.
Pitt Hires Paul Chryst
The University of Pittsburgh hired University of Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst as their new head football coach. Let's take a look at Wisconsin's offensive ranking since 2008. Wisconsin's offense ranked as the #50 most productive in the nation. In 2009 Wisconsin improved to be the #33 ranked offense in the football bowl subdivision. The following season Wisconsin's offense improved again to be the #12 most productive offense in the nation. As of the end of the regular season (including the Big 10 conference championship game) Wisconsin's offense is the #3 ranked offense in the nation. As you can see, Wisconsin's offense has been improving since 2008. Pitt is hoping that Chryst can be as productive while the head coach of the Panthers.
Wyoming's Dave Christensen gets Contract Extension
Head football coach Dave Christensen has agreed to a five year contract extension at the University of Wyoming. Let's take a look at Wyoming over the last three years during Christensen's tenure. As of now the Wyoming Cowboys are 8-5 (including their bowl loss to Temple). Not including their bowl performance, the Cowboys this season were the #52 team in the nation, with the #18 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense.
In 2010 the Cowboys were 3-9 and were the #104 most productive team with the #109 offense and the #87 ranked defense. The prior season (2009) Wyoming was 7-6 and the #103 overall ranked team with the #100 offense and the #88 ranked defense.
In 2010 the Cowboys were 3-9 and were the #104 most productive team with the #109 offense and the #87 ranked defense. The prior season (2009) Wyoming was 7-6 and the #103 overall ranked team with the #100 offense and the #88 ranked defense.
South Carolina Gives Spurrier Two Year Extension
The University of South Carolina has extended head football coach Steve Spurier's contract two more years. Coach Spurier has been at South Carolina longer than I have run the model, so let's take a look at the Gamecock's performance since 2008 (the beginning of the model). Here (just to change things up, let's start with the 2008 season and move forward).
In 2008 South Carolina was 7-6 (Outback Bowl loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes) and were the #71 most productive team in the nation, with the #86 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense. In 2009 South Carolina was 7-6 and the Gamecock's were the #60 most productive team overall with the #90 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense. In 2010, the Gamecock's were 9-5 (bowl loss to Florida State) and finished as the #38 ranked team overall, the #33 most productive offense and the #50 most productive defense.
As of now, South Carolina is 10-2, and currently the #7 most productive team in college FBS football, with the #44 most productive offense and the #2 most productive defense.
In 2008 South Carolina was 7-6 (Outback Bowl loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes) and were the #71 most productive team in the nation, with the #86 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense. In 2009 South Carolina was 7-6 and the Gamecock's were the #60 most productive team overall with the #90 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense. In 2010, the Gamecock's were 9-5 (bowl loss to Florida State) and finished as the #38 ranked team overall, the #33 most productive offense and the #50 most productive defense.
As of now, South Carolina is 10-2, and currently the #7 most productive team in college FBS football, with the #44 most productive offense and the #2 most productive defense.
Paul Rhoads Contract Extension at Iowa State
Paul Rhoads has agreed to a ten year contract extension. After the Pinstripe bowl game this year, Rhoads will be finishing his third year at Iowa State. So, here is Iowa State's performance under Rhoads tenure at Iowa State.
2011: (before the Pinstripe bowl) the Iowa State Cyclones are 6-6, and from the NCAA FBS production model's perspective are the #99 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #111 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense. The previous season (2010), Iowa State finished 5-7 and was the #79 most productive team with the #93 most productive offense and the #45 most productive defense. In Rhoads' first season at Iowa State, the Cyclones were 7-6 with the #84 most productive team, the #72 most productive offense and the #92 most productive defense.
2011: (before the Pinstripe bowl) the Iowa State Cyclones are 6-6, and from the NCAA FBS production model's perspective are the #99 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #111 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense. The previous season (2010), Iowa State finished 5-7 and was the #79 most productive team with the #93 most productive offense and the #45 most productive defense. In Rhoads' first season at Iowa State, the Cyclones were 7-6 with the #84 most productive team, the #72 most productive offense and the #92 most productive defense.
Todd Graham Accepts Arizona State Head Coaching Job
Todd Graham has accepted the head coaching job at Arizona State University, leaving the University of Pittsburgh after only one season at Pitt. Prior to that coach Graham was the head football coach at the University of Tulsa. So, let's take a look at how coach Graham's teams have performed over the last few years.
2011: Pittsburgh. This season Graham's team is 6-6. They are the #83 most productive team in the nation, with the #110 offense and #40 defense; not your typically Graham team.
2010: Tulsa was 10-3 (including a Hawaii bowl win over Hawaii). Tulsa was the #21 most productive team for that season, with the #10 most productive offense and the #91 ranked defense.
2009: Tulsa was 5-7. Tulsa was the #71 most productive team, with the #70 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.
2011: Pittsburgh. This season Graham's team is 6-6. They are the #83 most productive team in the nation, with the #110 offense and #40 defense; not your typically Graham team.
2010: Tulsa was 10-3 (including a Hawaii bowl win over Hawaii). Tulsa was the #21 most productive team for that season, with the #10 most productive offense and the #91 ranked defense.
2009: Tulsa was 5-7. Tulsa was the #71 most productive team, with the #70 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.
Louisiana Tech Coach Raise
Head football coach Sonny Dykes recently received a pay raise and a two year contract extension. So let's take a look at how Louisiana Tech has performed over the last two years. At the end of the regular season, Louisiana Tech was 8-4 and the #39 ranked team in the nation. They were the #53 most productive offense and the #23 most productive defense. (Of course this will change once all the bowl games are played, but gives us a good overview of their performance at the time coach Dykes' contract was extended.) In 2010, Louisiana Tech was 5-7 against a strength of schedule of 61.17. Louisiana Tech was the #90 most productive team in NCAA FBS, with the #70 most productive offense and the #109 most productive defense.
Thus overall Louisiana Tech has dramatically improved over the 2010 season.
Thus overall Louisiana Tech has dramatically improved over the 2010 season.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
2011 Las Vegas Bowl
Tonight the Boise State Broncos from the Mountain West Conference face the Arizona State Sun Devils from the Pac 12.
This season the Boise State Broncos are 11-1 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 56.42. Boise State's best win was against currently ranked #17 Toledo, and their only loss (by one point) was against currently ranked #12 TCU. To date, the Broncos are the #6 ranked team overall, with the #9 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 64.75. Arizona State's best win was against currently ranked #21 USC, and their worst loss was against their in-state rival and currently ranked #96 Arizona. To date, the Sun Devils are the #64 ranked team overall, with the #20 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Boise State better than Arizona State, and hence expect Boise State to win the Las Vegas Bowl today.
This season the Boise State Broncos are 11-1 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 56.42. Boise State's best win was against currently ranked #17 Toledo, and their only loss (by one point) was against currently ranked #12 TCU. To date, the Broncos are the #6 ranked team overall, with the #9 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 64.75. Arizona State's best win was against currently ranked #21 USC, and their worst loss was against their in-state rival and currently ranked #96 Arizona. To date, the Sun Devils are the #64 ranked team overall, with the #20 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Boise State better than Arizona State, and hence expect Boise State to win the Las Vegas Bowl today.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
2011 Poinsettia Bowl
Today the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs from the Western Athletic Conference plays the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs currently from the Mountain West Conference in the Poinsettia Bowl today. Next season the Horned Frogs move to the Big 12 Conference.
This season the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production models measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 73.42. Louisiana Tech's best win was against currently ranked #34 Nevada, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #78 Hawaii. To date, the Bulldogs are the #39 ranked team overall, with the #53 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense.
The Texas Christian University Horded Frogs are 10-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 63.25. TCU's best win was against currently ranked #6 Boise State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #60 SMU. To date, the Horned Frogs are the #12 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #45 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks TCU better than Louisiana Tech, and hence expect TCU to win the Poinsettia Bowl today.
This season the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production models measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 73.42. Louisiana Tech's best win was against currently ranked #34 Nevada, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #78 Hawaii. To date, the Bulldogs are the #39 ranked team overall, with the #53 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense.
The Texas Christian University Horded Frogs are 10-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 63.25. TCU's best win was against currently ranked #6 Boise State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #60 SMU. To date, the Horned Frogs are the #12 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #45 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks TCU better than Louisiana Tech, and hence expect TCU to win the Poinsettia Bowl today.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
2011 Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
This past Saturday saw the bowl season kick off with three games. The model went 1-2 for those three games, with the two losses occuring in the last minute of play in the game. Today there is just one bowl game, pitting Florida International University out of the SunBelt Conference against Marshall University from Conference USA.
This season the Florida International University Golden Panthers are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 83.42. FIU's best win was against currently ranked #38 University of Central Florida, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #108 Duke. To date, the Golden Panthers are the #45 ranked team overall, with the #40 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense.
Currently the Marshall Thundering Herd are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 58.25. Marshall's best win was against currently ranked #32 University of Southern Mississippi, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #59 Ohio University. To date, the Thundering Herd are the #73 ranked team overall, with the #71 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Florida International University better than Marshall, and hence expect Florida International University to win the Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl today.
This season the Florida International University Golden Panthers are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 83.42. FIU's best win was against currently ranked #38 University of Central Florida, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #108 Duke. To date, the Golden Panthers are the #45 ranked team overall, with the #40 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense.
Currently the Marshall Thundering Herd are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 58.25. Marshall's best win was against currently ranked #32 University of Southern Mississippi, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #59 Ohio University. To date, the Thundering Herd are the #73 ranked team overall, with the #71 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks Florida International University better than Marshall, and hence expect Florida International University to win the Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl today.
Monday, December 19, 2011
NBA Attendance After the Lockout
In our book, the Wages of Wins - we talk about the impact that labor stoppages (lockouts/strikes) have on future league attendance. We do not find any statistically significant impact of a labor stoppage in any of the four major leagues up to the NHL cancelled season. Here is an article that refers to our book with regard to the recent NBA lockout and that there will not likely be a significant impact due to the lockout. This looks like something to look at at the end of the NBA regular season.
Update: Here is the preliminary lockout blog.
Update: Here is the preliminary lockout blog.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
2011 New Orleans Bowl
Louisana Lafayette's Ragin' Cajans have accepted their first FBS invitation to a bowl by accepting a bid to the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. Their opponent are the San Diego State Aztecs.
This season the Louisana Lafayette Ragin' Cajans are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 77.42. Louisana Lafayette's best win was against currently ranked #45 Florida International University, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #102 Western Kentucky. To date, the Ragin' Cajans are the #65 ranked team overall, with the #47 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.
The San Diego State Aztecs are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 69.50. San Diego State's best win was against currently ranked #29 Air Force, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #52 Wyoming Cowboys who also played today. To date, the Aztecs are the #23 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks the San Diego State Aztecs better than the Louisana Lafayette Ragin' Cajans, and hence expect the San Diego State Aztecs to win the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl today.
This season the Louisana Lafayette Ragin' Cajans are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 77.42. Louisana Lafayette's best win was against currently ranked #45 Florida International University, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #102 Western Kentucky. To date, the Ragin' Cajans are the #65 ranked team overall, with the #47 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.
The San Diego State Aztecs are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 69.50. San Diego State's best win was against currently ranked #29 Air Force, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #52 Wyoming Cowboys who also played today. To date, the Aztecs are the #23 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks the San Diego State Aztecs better than the Louisana Lafayette Ragin' Cajans, and hence expect the San Diego State Aztecs to win the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl today.
2011 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
The Utah State Aggies play the Ohio University Bobcats today in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (formerly the Idaho Humanitarian Bowl).
This season the Utah State Aggies are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 79.50. Utah State's best win was against currently ranked #34 Nevada, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #97 Colorado State. To date, the Aggies are the #42 ranked team overall, with the #27 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense.
The Ohio Bobcats are 9-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 79.85. Ohio's best win was against currently ranked #13 Temple, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #104 Ball State. To date, the Ohio Bobcats are the #59 ranked team overall, with the #39 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks the Utah State Aggies better than the Ohio Bobcats, and hence expect Utah State to win the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl today.
This season the Utah State Aggies are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 79.50. Utah State's best win was against currently ranked #34 Nevada, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #97 Colorado State. To date, the Aggies are the #42 ranked team overall, with the #27 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense.
The Ohio Bobcats are 9-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 79.85. Ohio's best win was against currently ranked #13 Temple, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #104 Ball State. To date, the Ohio Bobcats are the #59 ranked team overall, with the #39 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense.
The NCAA FBS production model ranks the Utah State Aggies better than the Ohio Bobcats, and hence expect Utah State to win the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl today.
2011 Gildan New Mexico Bowl
The 2011 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) season kicks off with the Gildan New Mexico Bowl pitting the Temple Owls, from the Mid American Conference, against the Wyoming Cowboys from the Mountain West Conference. As I did last year, I am going to look at each bowl game this season and write about how the two teams fared from the NCAA FBS production model. Whichever team is ranked higher (overall) will be my "pick" as to who wins the game. So, let's take a look at this first game.
This season the Temple Owls are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 73.92. Temple's best win was against currently ranked #61 Kent State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #88 Bowling Green. To date, the Owls are the #13 ranked team overall, with the #34 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
The Wyoming Cowboys are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 69.08. Wyoming's best win was against currently ranked #23 San Diego State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #57 Nebraska. To date, the Cowboys are the #52 ranked team overall, with the #18 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense.
Both teams have the same record, both teams have played an easier than average schedule this regular season. It seems like it should be a competitive game. The NCAA FBS production model ranks Temple better than Wyoming, and hence expect Temple to win this game.
This season the Temple Owls are 8-4 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 73.92. Temple's best win was against currently ranked #61 Kent State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #88 Bowling Green. To date, the Owls are the #13 ranked team overall, with the #34 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
The Wyoming Cowboys are 8-4 with a strength of schedule equal to 69.08. Wyoming's best win was against currently ranked #23 San Diego State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #57 Nebraska. To date, the Cowboys are the #52 ranked team overall, with the #18 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense.
Both teams have the same record, both teams have played an easier than average schedule this regular season. It seems like it should be a competitive game. The NCAA FBS production model ranks Temple better than Wyoming, and hence expect Temple to win this game.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Financial Losses in NCAA Football Bowl Games
As the NCAA FBS bowl season starts, here is an excellent article from CFO Magazine on the finances of college football bowl games. (It is not very profitable.)
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Arkansas State's New Head Football Coach
Arkansas State Indians have hired Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. So let's take a look at how Auburn's offense has done under coach Malzahn's tenure. In 2010 - Auburn's undefeated season - the Auburn Tigers offense was #7 in the nation using the NCAA FBS production model. This year Auburn's offense is currently ranked #79 in the nation.
Toledo Hires New Football Head Coach
The University of Toledo has hired their offensive coordinator Matt Campbell as their new head football coach. Campbell has been at Toledo for the past three seasons, so let's take a look at Toledo's offense using the NCAA FBS production model.
As of the end of the 2011 regular FBS season, Toledo had the #6 most productive offense in the nation. In 2010, Toledo finished with the #50 most productive offense, and in 2009 Toledo had the #59 most productive offense. So, you can see that Toledo's offense has had a huge increase (to date) this season.
As of the end of the 2011 regular FBS season, Toledo had the #6 most productive offense in the nation. In 2010, Toledo finished with the #50 most productive offense, and in 2009 Toledo had the #59 most productive offense. So, you can see that Toledo's offense has had a huge increase (to date) this season.
Texas A&M Hires Sumlin as Head Coach
Texas A&M has hired Kevin Sumlin as their new head football coach, after finishing the regular season at 6-6 and dismissing head football coach Mike Sherman. Coach Sumlin was previously the head football coach at the University of Houston, so let's take a look at how the Cougars have fared in terms of production under coach Sumlin's tenure at Houston.
This season Houston is currently the #4 team in the nation overall, and has a 12-1 record, with their only loss to the Univ. of Southern Mississippi in the CUSA championship game, and will play Penn St. in the TicketCity Bowl in January. Houston has the #1 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense in terms of the production model. In 2010, Houston was the #27 ranked offense, the #86 ranked defense and the #57 ranked team in total production. Houston finished the season at 5-7 against a strength of schedule of 71.50.
In 2009, Houston finished the season at 10-4 against a strength of schedule of 71.00. In terms of the NCAA production model, Houston was the #15 most productive team in the nation primarily with the #1 most productive offense and not so much with their #102 defense. In coach Sumlin's first year at Houston, the Cougars went 8-5 against a strength of schedule of 73.39. Houston had the #6 offense in the nation, the #95 defense and the #29 most productive team overall.
Hence, Texas A&M is getting a very successful coach in terms of offense against primarily CUSA teams.
This season Houston is currently the #4 team in the nation overall, and has a 12-1 record, with their only loss to the Univ. of Southern Mississippi in the CUSA championship game, and will play Penn St. in the TicketCity Bowl in January. Houston has the #1 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense in terms of the production model. In 2010, Houston was the #27 ranked offense, the #86 ranked defense and the #57 ranked team in total production. Houston finished the season at 5-7 against a strength of schedule of 71.50.
In 2009, Houston finished the season at 10-4 against a strength of schedule of 71.00. In terms of the NCAA production model, Houston was the #15 most productive team in the nation primarily with the #1 most productive offense and not so much with their #102 defense. In coach Sumlin's first year at Houston, the Cougars went 8-5 against a strength of schedule of 73.39. Houston had the #6 offense in the nation, the #95 defense and the #29 most productive team overall.
Hence, Texas A&M is getting a very successful coach in terms of offense against primarily CUSA teams.
Western Kentucky Head Football Coach Raise
Today my schedule is crazy as I am giving two finals. So, my posts - normally done in the morning will be in the afternoon. Continuing with the coaching carousel, let's start with Western Kentucky.
Head football coach Willie Taggart received a raise at Western Kentucky. Let's take a look at the Western Kentucky Hilltopper's over the last few seasons.
Currently, Western Kentucky is 7-5 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 72.58. In terms of overall production, the Hilltoppers are the #102 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision - or in the bottom sixth of all FBS schools. On the offensive side of the ball, WKU are the #115 most productive team - sixth from the bottom and the #83 ranked defense - below average. Last year, Western Kentucky was 2-10 against a strength of schedule equal to 73.25. Overall the Hilltoppers were the #92 ranked team in the nation, with the #94 offense and the #80 defense. For this head coach Taggart received a raise.
Head football coach Willie Taggart received a raise at Western Kentucky. Let's take a look at the Western Kentucky Hilltopper's over the last few seasons.
Currently, Western Kentucky is 7-5 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 72.58. In terms of overall production, the Hilltoppers are the #102 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision - or in the bottom sixth of all FBS schools. On the offensive side of the ball, WKU are the #115 most productive team - sixth from the bottom and the #83 ranked defense - below average. Last year, Western Kentucky was 2-10 against a strength of schedule equal to 73.25. Overall the Hilltoppers were the #92 ranked team in the nation, with the #94 offense and the #80 defense. For this head coach Taggart received a raise.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Fedora is new head coach at North Carolina
The University of North Carolina has hired Larry Fedora as their new head coach. Fedora was previously the head football coach at the University of Southern Mississippi, so let's take a look at the University of Southern Mississippi over the past two seasons.
As of last week the University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles were 11-2, with their only losses to currently ranked #73 Marshall and #106 University of Alabama-Birmingham. Both were close games, and with a little luck, USM could have been undefeated, but alas that was not the case. The Golden Eagles will play Nevada in the Hawaii bowl later this month. In terms of their production this season, the Golden Eagles are currently ranked as the #32 team overall, the 30th most productive offense and the 44th most productive defense.
In 2010, the Golden Eagles were 8-4 (with a bowl loss to Louisville). USM finished as the #31 most productive team in the nation last year, with the #17 best offense and the #68th best defense.
As of last week the University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles were 11-2, with their only losses to currently ranked #73 Marshall and #106 University of Alabama-Birmingham. Both were close games, and with a little luck, USM could have been undefeated, but alas that was not the case. The Golden Eagles will play Nevada in the Hawaii bowl later this month. In terms of their production this season, the Golden Eagles are currently ranked as the #32 team overall, the 30th most productive offense and the 44th most productive defense.
In 2010, the Golden Eagles were 8-4 (with a bowl loss to Louisville). USM finished as the #31 most productive team in the nation last year, with the #17 best offense and the #68th best defense.
Hawaii's Head Football Coach Resigns
Greg McMackin has resigned as head football coach of the Hawaii Warriors. It has been a tough year at Hawaii. The team has underperformed and recently a letter to the University accused football players of participating in a point shaving scheme (blog on it here). Let's take a look at Hawaii since 2008 in terms of their on-field performance.
In 2008 Hawaii finished 7-7, with a Hawaii bowl loss to Notre Dame. Hawaii played against a strength of schedule equal to 65.8 - which is about average. Hawaii was the #108 overall team in the nation that season, which is near the bottom. The 2009 season saw an improvement in terms of Hawaii's relative ranking to #73 overall. This was a team that went 6-7 an thus was not eligible for a NCAA bowl. For the 2010 season Hawaii was significantly improved, finishing 10-4 (Hawaii Bowl loss to Tulsa). Hawaii finished in the NCAA FBS production model as the #11 team in the nation, on the strength of the #3 ranked offense. Thus there seemed to be great expectations for the Warriors, unfortunately this did not come to pass. Hawaii has finished their season 6-7, bowl ineligible and are currently ranked as the #78 team overall.
In 2008 Hawaii finished 7-7, with a Hawaii bowl loss to Notre Dame. Hawaii played against a strength of schedule equal to 65.8 - which is about average. Hawaii was the #108 overall team in the nation that season, which is near the bottom. The 2009 season saw an improvement in terms of Hawaii's relative ranking to #73 overall. This was a team that went 6-7 an thus was not eligible for a NCAA bowl. For the 2010 season Hawaii was significantly improved, finishing 10-4 (Hawaii Bowl loss to Tulsa). Hawaii finished in the NCAA FBS production model as the #11 team in the nation, on the strength of the #3 ranked offense. Thus there seemed to be great expectations for the Warriors, unfortunately this did not come to pass. Hawaii has finished their season 6-7, bowl ineligible and are currently ranked as the #78 team overall.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Illinois Hires New Head Coach
Illinois has hired Tim Beckmen as their new head football coach, replacing Ron Zook. Beckman previously was the head coach at the University of Toledo. Let's take a look at both Illinois and Toledo over the last few seasons.
This season Illinois is an above average team with an average record. The Fighting Illini are 6-6, but are currently the #48 ranked team in the nation, with the #94 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense. Given the disparity between the two sides of the ball, their record seems indicative of their performance. In 2010, Illinois finished ranked #39 overall, with the #32 offense and #51 defense. The year before the Fighting Illini were the #92 ranked team with the #80 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense, and in 2008 Illinois was #51 overall with the #49 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.
Toledo to date is 8-4 and currently ranked as the #17 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision. Toledo has the 6th best offense and the 78th best defense. The prior year Toledo was the #53 ranked team overall with the 50th best offense and the 44th best defense.
This season Illinois is an above average team with an average record. The Fighting Illini are 6-6, but are currently the #48 ranked team in the nation, with the #94 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense. Given the disparity between the two sides of the ball, their record seems indicative of their performance. In 2010, Illinois finished ranked #39 overall, with the #32 offense and #51 defense. The year before the Fighting Illini were the #92 ranked team with the #80 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense, and in 2008 Illinois was #51 overall with the #49 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.
Toledo to date is 8-4 and currently ranked as the #17 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision. Toledo has the 6th best offense and the 78th best defense. The prior year Toledo was the #53 ranked team overall with the 50th best offense and the 44th best defense.
Colorado State Fired Fairchild
Colorado State University has fired Steve Fairchild as their head coach. CSU announced that they have hired Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain. [Contract details]
Let's take a look at the Colorado State Rams since 2008, starting with this season. In 2011 the Rams finished 3-9, against a strength of schedule of 67.92 - slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. CSU had the 97th most productive team with the 89th most productive offense and the 93rd most productive defense. (Yes, they ranked lower than the end points - this happens since we are ranking teams relative to each other). Hence the Rams were not that good as their record would indicate. The three previous seasons were not much better. In 2010, CSU was the #108th most productive team; and in both 2008 and 2009 CSU was the #105 ranked team in total production. So while CSU was better in 2011 (relative to the rest of the teams in the bottom quartile of FBS schools) they were not that much better than their three previous seasons.
Alabama's offensive productivity (based on the NCAA FBS model) over the last two seasons has this season ranked at #19 (end of regular season) and for 2010 was ranked at #13 in the nation. Thus CSU has hired someone who has had some success on offense in the SEC, and time will tell if that can be translated to Fort Collins.
Let's take a look at the Colorado State Rams since 2008, starting with this season. In 2011 the Rams finished 3-9, against a strength of schedule of 67.92 - slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. CSU had the 97th most productive team with the 89th most productive offense and the 93rd most productive defense. (Yes, they ranked lower than the end points - this happens since we are ranking teams relative to each other). Hence the Rams were not that good as their record would indicate. The three previous seasons were not much better. In 2010, CSU was the #108th most productive team; and in both 2008 and 2009 CSU was the #105 ranked team in total production. So while CSU was better in 2011 (relative to the rest of the teams in the bottom quartile of FBS schools) they were not that much better than their three previous seasons.
Alabama's offensive productivity (based on the NCAA FBS model) over the last two seasons has this season ranked at #19 (end of regular season) and for 2010 was ranked at #13 in the nation. Thus CSU has hired someone who has had some success on offense in the SEC, and time will tell if that can be translated to Fort Collins.
Kansas Hires Charlie Weis as Head Coach
The University of Kansas Jayhawks have hired Charlie Weis as their head football coach after firing Turner Gill in late November. To say that Kansas has been bad is an understatement. At the end of the regular season for 2011, Kansas is the worst team in the football bowl subdivision, and has nearly the worst offense (#116) and the worst defense (#118). Hence Gill is out and now Weis is in, but the story is not much better. The University of Florida's overall offensive productivity for the entire 2011 regular (non-bowl) season was #92 in the nation. That's right, Florida was near the bottom quartile of all FBS schools in terms of overall offensive production; which is better than under Gill, but given this past season's track record, don't expect too much from Kansas any time soon. Weis may fare better in the "Big 12", with overall easier defenses (I think). I will have to look into this after the bowl season.
Monday, December 12, 2011
NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 15
With the completion of the Army-Navy game on Saturday, the regular FBS season has now finished. In order to be complete, I have re-run the model including this last game and below are the rankings. You will notice that there is not much difference, (North Carolina State replaced Baylor at #24 in the NCAA FBS production ranking) but there is some differences in the total rankings, as previously Army and Navy were ranked against teams that had played more regular season games then they had, and now are more complete.
I have also included each teams current BCS rankings as well - if applicable.
Week 14 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 13 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
I have also included each teams current BCS rankings as well - if applicable.
| Rank | School | BCS | |
| 1 | Alabama | (2) | |
| 2 | Oklahoma State | (3) | |
| 3 | LSU | (1) | |
| 4 | Houston | (6) | |
| 5 | Wisconsin | (15) | |
| 6 | Boise State | (7) | |
| 7 | South Carolina | (12) | |
| 8 | Oregon | (9) | |
| 9 | Florida State | (-) | |
| 10 | Stanford | (4) | |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | (-) | |
| 12 | TCU | (18) | |
| 13 | Temple | (-) | |
| 14 | Michigan | (16) | |
| 15 | Michigan State | (13) | |
| 16 | Oklahoma | (10) | |
| 17 | Toledo | (-) | |
| 18 | North Carolina | (-) | |
| 19 | Cincinnati | (-) | |
| 20 | Arkansas State | (-) | |
| 21 | USC | (-) | |
| 22 | Missouri | (25) | |
| 23 | San Diego State | (-) | |
| 24 | North Carolina State | (-) | |
| 25 | West Virginia | (23) |
Week 14 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 13 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Army vs Navy 2011
Today's Army-Navy game marks the end of the regular season in college FBS football for this year. As I did last year, let's take a look at these two teams for today's game.
Army is currently 3-8 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 64.0. Army's best win was against currently ranked #77 Northwestern and their worst loss was the following week against #104 Ball State. Army currently has the #55 most productive team in the nation - which is slightly above average, so their win/loss record shows they have had a rather "unlucky" season. Army has the 63rd most productive offense and the 42nd most productive defense.
Navy is in a similar situation. The Midshipman are 4-7 playing against a strength of schedule of 69.82. Navy's best win was against #61 SMU and their worst loss was against #95 East Carolina. Navy has consistently underperformed in terms of wins and losses this season. Navy has the #30 most productive team in the nation, with the #23rd most productive offense and the #52 most productive defense
Both teams have underperformed in terms of wins this season. Army has lost to Ball State, Miami (OH) and Rutgers. Each team is statistically less productive than Army, and thus Army should be at least a bowl eligible team this season. Navy has lost to East Carolina, Rutgers and San Jose State. Statistically the Midshipmen could have 7 or 8 wins as opposed to the four wins they currently have.
Given that Navy is a more productive team than Army this season, the model "predicts" that Navy will be the winner of the game today.
Army is currently 3-8 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 64.0. Army's best win was against currently ranked #77 Northwestern and their worst loss was the following week against #104 Ball State. Army currently has the #55 most productive team in the nation - which is slightly above average, so their win/loss record shows they have had a rather "unlucky" season. Army has the 63rd most productive offense and the 42nd most productive defense.
Navy is in a similar situation. The Midshipman are 4-7 playing against a strength of schedule of 69.82. Navy's best win was against #61 SMU and their worst loss was against #95 East Carolina. Navy has consistently underperformed in terms of wins and losses this season. Navy has the #30 most productive team in the nation, with the #23rd most productive offense and the #52 most productive defense
Both teams have underperformed in terms of wins this season. Army has lost to Ball State, Miami (OH) and Rutgers. Each team is statistically less productive than Army, and thus Army should be at least a bowl eligible team this season. Navy has lost to East Carolina, Rutgers and San Jose State. Statistically the Midshipmen could have 7 or 8 wins as opposed to the four wins they currently have.
Given that Navy is a more productive team than Army this season, the model "predicts" that Navy will be the winner of the game today.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Memphis Fires Head Coach
Memphis has fired head football coach Larry Porter after two seasons at the helm of the Tigers. Memphis has been consistently a poorly productive team over the last two seasons. In 2010, Memphis ended as the second to last offense (119), the sixth to last defense (115) and the second to last team in overall production (119). As of last week, Memphis was the #99 most productive offense, the #110 most productive defense and the #109 most productive team overall. Not great results for the Tigers. In the hopes of better productivity, Memphis has hired Justin Fuente - offensive head coach at TCU. Fuente has been co-offensive coordinator at TCU since 2009, so let's take a look at how TCU has fared on offense over the last three seasons.
In 2009, the Horned Frogs were the fifth most productive offense in the nation. In 2010, TCU was the fifth most productive offense in the nation. At this point in the season, TCU's offense is ranked #12 in the nation. As you can see, Fuente has been at the helm of a very potent offense, and given the lack of production on that side of the ball, Memphis should be a better team next season. Of course, Fuente needs to also upgrade Memphis' defense as it has been near the bottom in terms of overall production over the last two years.
In 2009, the Horned Frogs were the fifth most productive offense in the nation. In 2010, TCU was the fifth most productive offense in the nation. At this point in the season, TCU's offense is ranked #12 in the nation. As you can see, Fuente has been at the helm of a very potent offense, and given the lack of production on that side of the ball, Memphis should be a better team next season. Of course, Fuente needs to also upgrade Memphis' defense as it has been near the bottom in terms of overall production over the last two years.
Pat Hill out at Fresno State
Pat Hill has been fired as head football coach at Fresno State University after 15 years. Here is an excuse to look at Fresno State's production over the last few seasons. I will start with the current season and move back to 2008.
As of last week, Fresno State was 4-9 against a strength of schedule of 65.46. The Bulldogs were the 115th most productive team in the nation (or 6th worst) overall with the 81st most productive offense and the second to last defense (119).
In 2010 Fresno State had both the 82nd most productive offense and defense, but was the #84th most productive team overall.
In 2009 Fresno State was the #37th most productive offense, the #95th most productive defense leading to the #68th most productive team for that year.
In 2008, Fresno State was the 54th most productive offense, the #96th most productive defense and the 96th most productive team overall.
As you can see, the last few years have been rather sub-par for Fresno State in terms of productivity.
As of last week, Fresno State was 4-9 against a strength of schedule of 65.46. The Bulldogs were the 115th most productive team in the nation (or 6th worst) overall with the 81st most productive offense and the second to last defense (119).
In 2010 Fresno State had both the 82nd most productive offense and defense, but was the #84th most productive team overall.
In 2009 Fresno State was the #37th most productive offense, the #95th most productive defense leading to the #68th most productive team for that year.
In 2008, Fresno State was the 54th most productive offense, the #96th most productive defense and the 96th most productive team overall.
As you can see, the last few years have been rather sub-par for Fresno State in terms of productivity.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Akron Fires Head Football Coach Ianello
Akron has fired head football coach Rob Ianello. Here is a look at the Akron Zips over the last two seasons of Ianello's tenure.
This season (2011) Akron was 1-11. Akron had the fifth worst productive team in NCAA FBS, ranking them at #116. Their offense was second from last (119) and their defense ranked #97. The 2010 season was not much better. Akron was also 1-11. The Zips offense ranked #119 (second worst), their defense was #90 and their total production was #112. Since Akron does not have much farther to fall, it looks as if they decided it was time to change their head football coach.
Please note: As the 2011-2012 bowl games are played the final rankings may adjust some in future blogs.
This season (2011) Akron was 1-11. Akron had the fifth worst productive team in NCAA FBS, ranking them at #116. Their offense was second from last (119) and their defense ranked #97. The 2010 season was not much better. Akron was also 1-11. The Zips offense ranked #119 (second worst), their defense was #90 and their total production was #112. Since Akron does not have much farther to fall, it looks as if they decided it was time to change their head football coach.
Please note: As the 2011-2012 bowl games are played the final rankings may adjust some in future blogs.
UAB fires Neil Callaway
UAB has fired head football coach Neil Callaway. Callaway was hired at UAB in 2006, but I do not have all the data back that far to analyze FBS, I will start with the 2008 season - just in terms of their offensive, defensive and total rankings.
2008: UAB had the 85th most productive offense, the 112th most productive defense and the 112th most productive team in the nation - according to my NCAA model.
2009: UAB had the 61st most productive offense, the 98th most productive defense and the 83rd most productive team in the nation.
2010: UAB had the 62nd most productive offense, the 54th most productive defense and the 64th most productive team in the nation. (Yes, sometimes the rankings produce these odd results. If team A is barely more productive than team B on offense then team A will be ranked higher. If team B is much more productive than team A on defense then team B will be ranked higher than team A on defense and could be ranked a number of slots higher overall).
2011: UAB had the 106th most productive offense, the 84th most productive defense and the 114th most productive team in the nation (or sixth worst in the NCAA football bowl subdivision).
UAB has hired Garrick McGee, formerly the offensive coordinator at Arkansas. Arkansas has had a very productive offense under coach McGee for the two years he was offensive coordinator. In 2010 Arkansas was the #15 most productive offense in the nation and up to this point in the season, Arkansas is the #20 most productive offense in the football bowl subdivision.
2008: UAB had the 85th most productive offense, the 112th most productive defense and the 112th most productive team in the nation - according to my NCAA model.
2009: UAB had the 61st most productive offense, the 98th most productive defense and the 83rd most productive team in the nation.
2010: UAB had the 62nd most productive offense, the 54th most productive defense and the 64th most productive team in the nation. (Yes, sometimes the rankings produce these odd results. If team A is barely more productive than team B on offense then team A will be ranked higher. If team B is much more productive than team A on defense then team B will be ranked higher than team A on defense and could be ranked a number of slots higher overall).
2011: UAB had the 106th most productive offense, the 84th most productive defense and the 114th most productive team in the nation (or sixth worst in the NCAA football bowl subdivision).
UAB has hired Garrick McGee, formerly the offensive coordinator at Arkansas. Arkansas has had a very productive offense under coach McGee for the two years he was offensive coordinator. In 2010 Arkansas was the #15 most productive offense in the nation and up to this point in the season, Arkansas is the #20 most productive offense in the football bowl subdivision.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Vanderbilt extends Franklin's contract
Vanderbilt has extended the contract of head football coach James Franklin. Let's take a look at this season at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt is bowl eligible with a 6-6 record and will play in the Autozone Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31st, a game that I will blog about on December 31st. As for Vanderbilt they ranked as the #38 most productive team this season with the #65 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense. Given Vanderbilt has played against a more difficult strength of schedule than average (58.58), their improvement in the win/loss columns and in terms of their overall productivity seems to be a reason coach Franklin was mentioned as a canidate for other head coaching positions and as a result a reason for his increase in salary.
Vanderbilt is bowl eligible with a 6-6 record and will play in the Autozone Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31st, a game that I will blog about on December 31st. As for Vanderbilt they ranked as the #38 most productive team this season with the #65 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense. Given Vanderbilt has played against a more difficult strength of schedule than average (58.58), their improvement in the win/loss columns and in terms of their overall productivity seems to be a reason coach Franklin was mentioned as a canidate for other head coaching positions and as a result a reason for his increase in salary.
Carl Pelini New Head Coach at Florida Atlantic
Carl Pelini, defensive coach at the University of Nebraska has taken the head football coaching position at Florida Atlantic University. So instead of looking at Florida Atlantic over the last three seasons or so, let's take a look at how well Carl Pelini's defense has performed at the University of Nebraska over the last few seasons.
Surprising, Nebraska's defense has been declining relative to the rest of the football bowl subdivision teams over the last few years. In 2009, Nebraska's defense was #9 in the nation, but slipped to #24 in 2010 and when Nebraska entered the Big 10 their defense fell to #59 overall.
Surprising, Nebraska's defense has been declining relative to the rest of the football bowl subdivision teams over the last few years. In 2009, Nebraska's defense was #9 in the nation, but slipped to #24 in 2010 and when Nebraska entered the Big 10 their defense fell to #59 overall.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Dennis Erickson out at Arizona State
It has been a tough year for NCAA FBS head coaches in Arizona. The University of Arizona head football coach Mike Stoops was fired about halfway through the season and now Arizona State University has fired head football coach Dennis Erickson. While coach Erickson has been at Arizona State before 2008, that is the earliest that I have all the data for the NCAA FBS model, so that how far I will go back. Let's start with the current season, and then move back in time.
This season (2011), the Arizona State Sun Devils are currently 6-6 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 65.1, which is about average. Arizona State is currently the #66 most productive team in the nation - which is slightly below average. Arizona State has the 21st most productive offense, but also has the #93 ranked defense, which is dragging down their production numbers.
In 2010, ASU had a slightly better record finishing 6-6 against a strength of schedule (SOS) equal to 62.67. ASU's offense was the #63rd most productive in the NCAA football bowl subdivision, their defense ranked #43 and the team's total rank was #61st in the nation.
In 2009, ASU finished 4-8 with a SOS of 62.08. Their offense ranked #93, their defense ranked #34 and the team finished as the #64 ranked team in all of the football bowl subdivision.
In 2008, the Sun Devils went 5-7 with a SOS of 61.00. Their offense was the #80 most productive, their defense was #23 and overall they were the #23 most productive team in the nation.
This season (2011), the Arizona State Sun Devils are currently 6-6 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 65.1, which is about average. Arizona State is currently the #66 most productive team in the nation - which is slightly below average. Arizona State has the 21st most productive offense, but also has the #93 ranked defense, which is dragging down their production numbers.
In 2010, ASU had a slightly better record finishing 6-6 against a strength of schedule (SOS) equal to 62.67. ASU's offense was the #63rd most productive in the NCAA football bowl subdivision, their defense ranked #43 and the team's total rank was #61st in the nation.
In 2009, ASU finished 4-8 with a SOS of 62.08. Their offense ranked #93, their defense ranked #34 and the team finished as the #64 ranked team in all of the football bowl subdivision.
In 2008, the Sun Devils went 5-7 with a SOS of 61.00. Their offense was the #80 most productive, their defense was #23 and overall they were the #23 most productive team in the nation.
Monday, December 5, 2011
NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 14
Here is the latest NCAA FBS production top 25 rankings. Houston has dropped to #4 in the model, with Alabama jumping up to the #1 spot and Oklahoma State's excellent performance this weekend moving the Cowboys to #2 in the model. Thus, from just the team's production, Alabama and Oklahoma State should be playing in the "Championship" game, unless something really funny happens in the Army-Navy game.
So, after the Army-Navy game this coming weekend (yes, include all the data) I will have the final regular (and conference championship season top 25, and I will use the model at that point to evaluate each bowl game on the day the bowl game is played.)
I have also included each teams current BCS rankings as well - if applicable.
Week 13 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
So, after the Army-Navy game this coming weekend (yes, include all the data) I will have the final regular (and conference championship season top 25, and I will use the model at that point to evaluate each bowl game on the day the bowl game is played.)
I have also included each teams current BCS rankings as well - if applicable.
| Top 25 Production | |||
| Rank | School | BCS | |
| 1 | Alabama | (2) | |
| 2 | Oklahoma State | (3) | |
| 3 | LSU | (1) | |
| 4 | Houston | (6) | |
| 5 | Wisconsin | (15) | |
| 6 | Boise State | (7) | |
| 7 | South Carolina | (12) | |
| 8 | Oregon | (9) | |
| 9 | Florida State | (-) | |
| 10 | Stanford | (4) | |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | (-) | |
| 12 | TCU | (18) | |
| 13 | Temple | (-) | |
| 14 | Michigan | (16) | |
| 15 | Michigan State | (13) | |
| 16 | Oklahoma | (10) | |
| 17 | Toledo | (-) | |
| 18 | North Carolina | (-) | |
| 19 | Cincinnati | (-) | |
| 20 | Arkansas State | (-) | |
| 21 | USC | (-) | |
| 22 | Missouri | (25) | |
| 23 | San Diego State | (-) | |
| 24 | Baylor | (17) | |
| 25 | West Virginia | (23) | |
Week 13 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Point Shaving in the NCAA
A few weeks ago, Hawaiian police were investigating whether the University of Hawaii football team was "point shaving". Point shaving is when a team intentionally reduces their effort so that the outcome of the game falls on one side or the other of the "point spread" - the number of points that book makers set in sports betting markets.
Economists have looked into this type of behavior previously as I blogged about a number of years ago, and today in Sports Economics we will look at this research - which in no way is conclusive. Some of the readers of the Wages of Wins blog were unimpressed, so I wrote a response to some of the critics of this research.
The USA Today reported that point shaving may have occurred at the University of Toledo in 2007, and subsequently in 2008 the FBI initiated an investigation of a the University of Toledo football player in regard to point shaving. The FBI football point shaving investigation also spilled over to the Toledo University basketball team. In 2009, indictments handed in Toledo point shaving case.
Economists have looked into this type of behavior previously as I blogged about a number of years ago, and today in Sports Economics we will look at this research - which in no way is conclusive. Some of the readers of the Wages of Wins blog were unimpressed, so I wrote a response to some of the critics of this research.
The USA Today reported that point shaving may have occurred at the University of Toledo in 2007, and subsequently in 2008 the FBI initiated an investigation of a the University of Toledo football player in regard to point shaving. The FBI football point shaving investigation also spilled over to the Toledo University basketball team. In 2009, indictments handed in Toledo point shaving case.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
The CUSA Football Championship Game
The Houston Cougars face Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA football championship game today. While this conference championship game will fly under the radar of many general college football fans, it is one that I plan on watching. Why? Let's take a look at the model's numbers.
Houston is currently 12-0 against a very weak schedule of 83.92. Houston is currently ranked as the most productive team in the nation (yes they are #1 in my model), behind a phenomenal offense - ranked #1 and the 27th best defense.
Southern Mississippi is currently 10-2 against a rather weak strength of schedule equal to 81.0.
Southern Mississippi is currently the 10th most productive team in the nation with the 20th ranked offense and the 15th ranked defense.
Given this Houston has the edge in this game, but it may be closer than what you think.
Houston is currently 12-0 against a very weak schedule of 83.92. Houston is currently ranked as the most productive team in the nation (yes they are #1 in my model), behind a phenomenal offense - ranked #1 and the 27th best defense.
Southern Mississippi is currently 10-2 against a rather weak strength of schedule equal to 81.0.
Southern Mississippi is currently the 10th most productive team in the nation with the 20th ranked offense and the 15th ranked defense.
Given this Houston has the edge in this game, but it may be closer than what you think.
The ACC Football Championship Game
The ACC football championship game today pits the Clemson Tigers against the Virginia Tech Hokies. This is a re-match of the October 1st game where Clemson won 23-3. The model I use to rank NCAA FBS teams does not bode well for the Tigers as it shows that Virginia Tech is a vastly superior team than Clemson, and I make the conclusion that Virginia Tech is the more productive team and thus the predicted winner. Let's look at the "tale of the tape".
Clemson is currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule of 59.0. While Clemson is ranked rather high in the BCS standings, they are not as highly ranked with the NCAA production model. Why? There rather inefficient defense. The NCAA FBS production model ranks Clemson as the #53 most productive team overall. On the scoring (what I call the offensive side) Clemson is the #44 most productive team and on defense they rank #62.
Virginia Tech is currently 11-1, their only loss to Clemson as mentioned above. The Hokies have played against a strength of schedule equal to 68.6, easier than Clemson's in part the model has Virginia Tech ranked higher than Clemson, and Virginia Tech is hindered by the fact that they cannot play themselves to lower their strength of schedule. That said, Virgina Tech currently have the #14 most productive team overall, with the #28 most productive offense and the #16 most productive defense.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Clemson is currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule of 59.0. While Clemson is ranked rather high in the BCS standings, they are not as highly ranked with the NCAA production model. Why? There rather inefficient defense. The NCAA FBS production model ranks Clemson as the #53 most productive team overall. On the scoring (what I call the offensive side) Clemson is the #44 most productive team and on defense they rank #62.
Virginia Tech is currently 11-1, their only loss to Clemson as mentioned above. The Hokies have played against a strength of schedule equal to 68.6, easier than Clemson's in part the model has Virginia Tech ranked higher than Clemson, and Virginia Tech is hindered by the fact that they cannot play themselves to lower their strength of schedule. That said, Virgina Tech currently have the #14 most productive team overall, with the #28 most productive offense and the #16 most productive defense.
Edge: Virginia Tech
The SEC Football Championship Game
The #1 BCS team, the LSU Tigers will play the Georgia Bulldogs for the SEC championship today. Here's how they stack up using the NCAA FBS production model.
LSU is currently 12-0 against a strength of schedule at 67.42. The model has LSU as the #5 most productive team in the nation, with the #13 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.
On the other hand, Georgia is currently 10-2, with losses against Boise State and South Carolina and has played a strength of schedule equal to 69.42, which like LSU is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Georgia is currently the #11 most productive team in the nation overall with the #32 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.
This should be a really good game that I think will be a more defensive battle than many would assume. The model has LSU slightly better than Georgia, so from the model's vantage point we should see LSU as the winner of this game.
LSU is currently 12-0 against a strength of schedule at 67.42. The model has LSU as the #5 most productive team in the nation, with the #13 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.
On the other hand, Georgia is currently 10-2, with losses against Boise State and South Carolina and has played a strength of schedule equal to 69.42, which like LSU is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Georgia is currently the #11 most productive team in the nation overall with the #32 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.
This should be a really good game that I think will be a more defensive battle than many would assume. The model has LSU slightly better than Georgia, so from the model's vantage point we should see LSU as the winner of this game.
The Big 10 Football Championship Game
The inaugural Big Ten Football Championship game will be played later today with the Michigan State Spartans facing Wisconsin. You may remember than Michigan State won the previous meeting against the Wisconsin Badgers on a game ending "Hail Mary" pass that was caught and the receiver barely made it into the endzone. At the time I used that one play to bring up the issue of one play affecting an entire season. Now we have a chance to see how these two teams will stack up again in the Big Ten Conference Championship game later on today.
In order to do so, let's take a look at the two teams playing in the game with their production model overall, offense and defense rankings.
Michigan State is currently 10-2 and has played against a strength of schedule equal to 68.75 - slightly easier than average. The Spartan's best win was against #2 Wisconsin and worst loss was against #50 Nebraska. Michigan State currently has the #12 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #38 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense.
Wisconsin is also currently 10-2. Their SOS is 72.38. As mentioned above, Wisconsin has the #2 ranked team in the nation with the #3 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
Given Wisconsin's superior performance on the field, the model "predicts" that Wisconsin will win the inaugural Big 10 Conference Football Championship game later today.
In order to do so, let's take a look at the two teams playing in the game with their production model overall, offense and defense rankings.
Michigan State is currently 10-2 and has played against a strength of schedule equal to 68.75 - slightly easier than average. The Spartan's best win was against #2 Wisconsin and worst loss was against #50 Nebraska. Michigan State currently has the #12 most productive team in the football bowl subdivision, with the #38 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense.
Wisconsin is also currently 10-2. Their SOS is 72.38. As mentioned above, Wisconsin has the #2 ranked team in the nation with the #3 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
Given Wisconsin's superior performance on the field, the model "predicts" that Wisconsin will win the inaugural Big 10 Conference Football Championship game later today.
Friday, December 2, 2011
The Mid-American Football Championship Game
Later today the Mid-American Football Championship Game will be played with Ohio and Northern Illinois facing each other for the conference crown. Let's take a look at how each has fared from the production model's perspective.
Ohio is currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule of 86.92, which is a fairly easy schedule. Ohio has only played one team that is currently above average in terms of my measure of production (Temple) and defeated them a few weeks ago. Thus all nine of Ohio's wins are against below average teams in terms of production. That said, Ohio is currently the #28 most productive team, with an offense ranked as the #27 most productive and a defense ranked as the #43 most productive.
Northern Illinois is also currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule equal to 77.42, and like Ohio easier than the average SOS. Unlike Ohio, Northern Illinois has defeated two teams that are above average (Toledo and Western Michigan). Northern Illinois is the #20 most productive team with an offense ranked at #8 and a defense ranked at #87.
There is not much difference in the overall rankings so this game might be close. The model gives the nod to Northern Illinois.
Ohio is currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule of 86.92, which is a fairly easy schedule. Ohio has only played one team that is currently above average in terms of my measure of production (Temple) and defeated them a few weeks ago. Thus all nine of Ohio's wins are against below average teams in terms of production. That said, Ohio is currently the #28 most productive team, with an offense ranked as the #27 most productive and a defense ranked as the #43 most productive.
Northern Illinois is also currently 9-3 against a strength of schedule equal to 77.42, and like Ohio easier than the average SOS. Unlike Ohio, Northern Illinois has defeated two teams that are above average (Toledo and Western Michigan). Northern Illinois is the #20 most productive team with an offense ranked at #8 and a defense ranked at #87.
There is not much difference in the overall rankings so this game might be close. The model gives the nod to Northern Illinois.
The PAC 12 Football Championship Game
The inaugural Pac 12 conference championship game pits UCLA against Oregon.
In 2011, the Bruins are (as of Nov. 26th 2011) 6-6 and currently are bowl eligible against a strength of schedule (SOS) equal to 54.08. UCLA has petitioned for a waiver to remain bowl eligible if they lose in the Pac 12 championship game tonight. In terms of production, UCLA is currently the #73 most productive team overall, with an offense that is #48 in terms of production and a defense that is #95 in relative productivity. (This is the same information found in my previous blog on Neuheisel's departure a few days ago).
Facing the Bruins will be the Oregon ducks. The Ducks are currently 10-2 against a SOS of 58.25. Oregon has the #4 most productive team overall, and the #5 most productive offense even with all of their injury problems with "star" players. The Ducks also have the #26th most productive defense.
Given Oregon's vastly superior productivity on the field to date, the model would pick that Oregon wins the first PAC 12 football conference championship game.
In 2011, the Bruins are (as of Nov. 26th 2011) 6-6 and currently are bowl eligible against a strength of schedule (SOS) equal to 54.08. UCLA has petitioned for a waiver to remain bowl eligible if they lose in the Pac 12 championship game tonight. In terms of production, UCLA is currently the #73 most productive team overall, with an offense that is #48 in terms of production and a defense that is #95 in relative productivity. (This is the same information found in my previous blog on Neuheisel's departure a few days ago).
Facing the Bruins will be the Oregon ducks. The Ducks are currently 10-2 against a SOS of 58.25. Oregon has the #4 most productive team overall, and the #5 most productive offense even with all of their injury problems with "star" players. The Ducks also have the #26th most productive defense.
Given Oregon's vastly superior productivity on the field to date, the model would pick that Oregon wins the first PAC 12 football conference championship game.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Texas A&M head coach fired
ESPN reports that Texas A&M has fired head football coach Mike Sherman today. This after Texas A&M gave head coach Sherman a contract extension this past Summer. At that time I blogged about the Aggies performance since Sherman's hiring in 2008 - details in the previous link.
Washington State has fired Paul Wulff and hired Mike Leach
Washington State University has fired their head football coach Paul Wulff, and hired Mike Leach as their head football coach. So let's take a look at how the NCAA production model views Washington State over the last few years. (I will blog on how Texas Tech fared with (2008 & 2009) and without (2010 & 2011) Mike Leach in July 2012).
The Washington State Cougars finished the 2011 season at 4-8 against a strength of schedule equal to 68.67, which is about average in terms of strength to schedule. Washington State's best win was against Arizona State (currently ranked #51 in the production model), and their worst loss was to Oregon State (currently at #95 overall). In terms of the Huskies performance this season, they currently rank as the #78 most productive team, with the #45 most productive offense and the #107 most productive defense. As you will see below, Washington State is vastly improved since Wulff was hired.
In 2010, the WSU finished 2-10 against a strength of schedule of 56.75. They were the #111 most productive team with the #98 most productive offense and the #116 most productive defense.
And now we hit rock bottom. In 2009 the Cougars were 1-11 against a strength of schedule of 50.00, with the worst team in the nation in terms of production (#120); the second to worst offense (#119) and the worst defense (#120).
2008 was not much different from 2009, with Washington State finishing 2-11 against a strength of schedule of 57.08, and again the Cougars had the worst team in the nation in terms of production (#120); the second to worst offense (#119) and the second to worst defense (#119).
Thus Mike Leach inherits a team on the rise, but with a significant hill to climb in order to make Washington State competitive in the Pac 12, let alone for BCS standings and bowls. Coach Leach has five years to get this done, and given his track record at Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas Tech it is possible. Given his damaged goods reputation (whether true or not), he will have a lot of eyes on his management of the team.
The Washington State Cougars finished the 2011 season at 4-8 against a strength of schedule equal to 68.67, which is about average in terms of strength to schedule. Washington State's best win was against Arizona State (currently ranked #51 in the production model), and their worst loss was to Oregon State (currently at #95 overall). In terms of the Huskies performance this season, they currently rank as the #78 most productive team, with the #45 most productive offense and the #107 most productive defense. As you will see below, Washington State is vastly improved since Wulff was hired.
In 2010, the WSU finished 2-10 against a strength of schedule of 56.75. They were the #111 most productive team with the #98 most productive offense and the #116 most productive defense.
And now we hit rock bottom. In 2009 the Cougars were 1-11 against a strength of schedule of 50.00, with the worst team in the nation in terms of production (#120); the second to worst offense (#119) and the worst defense (#120).
2008 was not much different from 2009, with Washington State finishing 2-11 against a strength of schedule of 57.08, and again the Cougars had the worst team in the nation in terms of production (#120); the second to worst offense (#119) and the second to worst defense (#119).
Thus Mike Leach inherits a team on the rise, but with a significant hill to climb in order to make Washington State competitive in the Pac 12, let alone for BCS standings and bowls. Coach Leach has five years to get this done, and given his track record at Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas Tech it is possible. Given his damaged goods reputation (whether true or not), he will have a lot of eyes on his management of the team.
University of Miami Head Coach Contract Extension
The Boston Globe reports that head football coach Al Golden has agreed to a contract extension through 2019.
Since the University of Miami has announced that it will not attend a bowl game this year, let's take a look at the 'Canes under Al Golden's tenure this season. As of November 26th (last game for Miami), the Hurricanes were 6-6 against a production schedule strength of schedule equal to 60.42, which is slightly more difficult than the average strength of schedule for all 120 FBS schools.
Miami currently (these numbers most likely will change at the very end of the season as more games are played by other FBS schools) is the 60th most productive team in the nation, with the #56 best offense (slightly above average) and the #66th best defense - slightly below average.
Yet even though Miami fired Randy Shannon after a better record and a better productive team last year, Golden get's a contract extension. This might be due to the fact that there is an opening at Penn State, where Golden has ties, and to lock up their coach they offered him a contract extension. I wonder what Randy Shannon's take on this would be? My guess is that he has too much character to make a negative statement. I don't seem to have that character trait in as great an abundance.
Since the University of Miami has announced that it will not attend a bowl game this year, let's take a look at the 'Canes under Al Golden's tenure this season. As of November 26th (last game for Miami), the Hurricanes were 6-6 against a production schedule strength of schedule equal to 60.42, which is slightly more difficult than the average strength of schedule for all 120 FBS schools.
Miami currently (these numbers most likely will change at the very end of the season as more games are played by other FBS schools) is the 60th most productive team in the nation, with the #56 best offense (slightly above average) and the #66th best defense - slightly below average.
Yet even though Miami fired Randy Shannon after a better record and a better productive team last year, Golden get's a contract extension. This might be due to the fact that there is an opening at Penn State, where Golden has ties, and to lock up their coach they offered him a contract extension. I wonder what Randy Shannon's take on this would be? My guess is that he has too much character to make a negative statement. I don't seem to have that character trait in as great an abundance.
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