Team Sports Analysis: November 2011

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Rick Neuheisel Out at UCLA

Head football coach Rick Neuheisel has been fired by UCLA. Given that UCLA has a high profile football program, there is a great deal of speculation about other candidates for this position. Since his firing, coach Neuheisel claims that UCLA needs to invest more in the football program financially. This is an interesting statement that I hope to look into further later in the future.

Since this is Neuheisel's last season as UCLA's head coach, let's take a look at how UCLA has performed in terms of productivity since 2008. I will take the most recent season first and finish with the 2008 season.

In 2011, the Bruins are (as of Nov. 26th 2011) 6-6 and currently are bowl eligible against a strength of schedule equal to 54.08. UCLA has petitioned for a waiver to remain bowl eligible if they lose in the Pac 12 championship game this coming weekend. In terms of production, UCLA is currently the #73 most productive team overall, with an offense that is #48 in terms of production and a defense that is #95 in relative productivity.

In 2010, UCLA was 4-8 playing against a strength of schedule measure of 55.17. In terms of production, UCLA had the #106 ranked team, with the #100 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense. This was the lowest production during Neuheisel's tenure.

In 2009, the UCLA Bruins were 7-5 in the regular season, with a loss to Temple in their bowl game. UCLA played against a strength of schedule equal to 55.15 - which is above (stronger) than average. In terms of production, UCLA had the #63 ranked team, with the #83 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense. This was the most productive team under Neuheisel's tenure.

In 2008, UCLA was 4-8 against a strength of schedule of 50.25. UCLA played against a strength of schedule equal to 50.25 - which again is above (stronger) than average. In terms of production, UCLA had the #101 ranked team, with the #109 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Ohio State's New Head Football Coach Urban Meyer

The Ohio State University announced their new head football coach is Urban Meyer. I had previously blogged about Florida under head coach Meyer, and here are the offense, defense and total rankings for the Florida Gators from 2008 to 2010.

This year, Ohio State has the following rankings as of November 26th 2011.
Ohio State finished the regular season at 6-6, which is bowl eligible. Ohio State's best win was over currently ranked (production model) #2 Wisconsin, and their worst loss was against currently ranked in the production model #82 Purdue. The Buckeyes currently are the #66 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision (i.e. below average). This is primarily due to their below average offense (ranked #89 in the nation) and is offset by their above average defense (#32) in the nation. Given that Ohio State has had success recruiting above average football players, it should not take Meyer long to right Ohio State's ship.

Monday, November 28, 2011

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 13

Here are the latest NCAA FBS top 25 production rankings as of last weekend. I have also listed the teams BCS rank in parenthesis - if applicable.

	Top 25 Production
Rank		School	BCS
1		Houston	(6)
2		Wisconsin	(15)
3		Oklahoma State	(3)
4		Oregon	(9)
5		LSU	(1)
6		Alabama	(2)
7		Oklahoma	(10)
8		Boise State	(7)
9		Stanford	(4)
10		Southern Mississippi	(24)
11		Georgia	(14)
12		Michigan State	(13)
13		Toledo	(-)
14		Virginia Tech	(5)
15		South Carolina	(12)
16		USC	(-)
17		Baylor	(17)
18		Michigan	(16)
19		Texas A&M	(-)
20		Northern Illinois	(-)
21		Missouri	(25)
22		Georgia Tech	(-)
23		West Virginia	(23)
24		Florida State	(-)
25		Arkansas State	(-)

Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking

Saturday, November 26, 2011

The Iron Bowl - 2011 Edition

Last year I wrote a short piece on the Iron Bowl, and for the first half all looked well. Then Auburn stormed back and won the game, propelling them to the SEC championship and the national championship game.

So let's take a quick look at the Iron Bowl 2011 game through the eyes of the FBS production model.

Earlier this season, I took a look at the Alabama Crimson Tide when they faced the LSU Tigers, and in terms of the model and strength of schedule, you will notice some differences in the numbers from the model - just like now the teams won-loss record is different. As more games (and data) are played, the rankings and strength of schedule change. So with that in mind, starting with the Alabama Crimson Tide, they currently are 10-1 against a schedule strength of 63.3. The FBS production model has Alabama currently as the #4 highest ranked team in the nation. On the offensive side of the ball Alabama is ranked #37. Alabama currently has the #1 defense in the nation. To see who Alabama has played and their current rank, here is their regular season schedule.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/3/2011	Kent St.	48	7	75	W
9/10/2011	Penn St.	27	11	24	W
9/17/2011	North Texas	41	0	105	W
9/24/2011	Arkansas	38	14	20	W
10/1/2011	Florida	38	10	61	W
10/8/2011	Vanderbilt	34	0	39	W
10/15/2011	Ole Miss	52	7	112	W
10/22/2011	Tennessee	37	6	73	W
11/5/2011	LSU	6	9	3	L
11/12/2011	Mississippi St.	24	7	63	W
11/19/2011	Ga. Southern	45	21	121	W
11/26/2011	Auburn

Turning to the Auburn Tigers, who are 7-4 against a strength of schedule equal to 53.5 which is much more difficult than an average schedule. Auburn is the #80th ranked team in the nation. Yes, last year's "national champion" is currently a below average FBS team. The Auburn Tigers are currently the #76th ranked offense and currently the #80th ranked defense.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/3/2011	Utah St.	42	38	27	W
9/10/2011	Mississippi St.	41	34	63	W
9/17/2011	Clemson	24	38	54	L
9/24/2011	Fla. Atlantic	30	14	107	W
10/1/2011	South Carolina	16	13	11	W
10/8/2011	Arkansas	14	38	20	L
10/15/2011	Florida	17	6	61	W
10/22/2011	LSU	10	45	3	L
10/29/2011	Ole Miss	41	23	112	W
11/12/2011	Georgia	7	45	9	L
11/19/2011	Samford	35	16	121	W
11/26/2011	Alabama

So in terms of the NCAA FBS production model Alabama is significantly more productive than Auburn. I made the same prediction last year - Alabama over Auburn.

Clemson - South Carolina 2011

On Saturday Clemson and South Carolina pick up their rivalry for bragging rights in South Carolina. Both Clemson and South Carolina are ranked in the BCS standings. Currently South Carolina is ranked #12 and Clemson is ranked #17. Thus in terms of the BCS standings this should be a competitive game. What about the production model?

Clemson is currently 9-2 against a strength of schedule equal to 61.5. Clemson in the production model is the #54 team in the nation, with the #38th ranked offense and the #61st ranked defense.

South Carolina is also 9-2 against a SOS equal to 66.0. South Carolina from the production model is the #11th most productive team in the nation, with the #43 ranked offense and the #7th ranked defense.

Thus according to the production model, South Carolina is the more productive team, and the team I would expect to win today's game.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Iowa - Nebraska 2011

With Nebraska moving to the Big 10 this season, Nebraska finishes out their conference schedule today at home against Iowa. In terms of the BCS, Nebraska is a significantly higher ranked team than Iowa (unranked). Let's take a look how the two teams fare under the production model.

Iowa is currently 7-4 against a SOS equal to 72.1. In the production model, the Hawkeyes are the #57 ranked team overall. Iowa is the #45 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense.

Nebraska is currently 8-3 against a SOS equal to 56.9. In the production model the Huskers are the #55 ranked team overall. On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska is the #55 ranked team, and on the defensive side of the ball the Huskers are the #47 ranked defense.

Thus the game should be competitive, with two slightly above average productive teams facing each other. I would say that the results of the model make calling the game too close to call.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin - 2011

Michigan State will face the winner of this game in the inaugural Big Ten Football Conference Championship Game on December 3rd. So let's take a look at Penn State and Wisconsin through the lens of the NCAA FBS Production model.

Penn State is currently 9-2. Penn State is the #24th ranked team overall, with the #80th ranked offense and the #6th ranked defense. Penn State has played up to this point in the season against a strength of schedule equal 61.5, which is slightly harder than on average. Penn State's regular season schedule.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/3/2011	Indiana St.	41	7	121	W
9/10/2011	Alabama	11	27	4	L
9/17/2011	Temple	14	10	16	W
9/24/2011	Eastern Mich.	34	6	78	W
10/1/2011	Indiana	16	10	111	W
10/8/2011	Iowa	13	3	57	W
10/15/2011	Purdue	23	18	87	W
10/22/2011	Northwestern	34	24	70	W
10/29/2011	Illinois	10	7	29	W
11/12/2011	Nebraska	14	17	55	L
11/19/2011	Ohio St.	20	14	49	W
11/26/2011	Wisconsin

Wisconsin is currently 9-2. The Badgers are the #2 highest ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense. The Badgers have a strength of schedule equal to 74.5, which is easier than an average FBS strength of schedule. Wisconsin's 2011 schedule is below.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/1/2011	UNLV	51	17	110	W
9/10/2011	Oregon St.	35	0	93	W
9/17/2011	Northern Ill.	49	7	45	W
9/24/2011	South Dakota	59	10	121	W
10/1/2011	Nebraska	48	17	55	W
10/15/2011	Indiana	59	7	111	W
10/22/2011	Michigan St.	31	37	6	L
10/29/2011	Ohio St.	29	33	49	L
11/5/2011	Purdue	62	17	87	W
11/12/2011	Minnesota	42	13	113	W
11/19/2011	Illinois	28	17	29	W
11/26/2011	Penn St.

Michigan - Ohio State 2011

Michigan plays Ohio State this weekend.

Michigan is currently 9-2 against a SOS of 59.6. The University of Michigan Wolverines currently ranks #18 in the nation overall. The Wolverines are #18 ranked offense and #31 ranked defense. Here is Michigan's regular season schedule.

Date

Opponent

Venue

SOS

Result

9/3/2011

Western Mich.

Home

9/10/2011

Notre Dame

Home

9/17/2011

Eastern Mich.

Home

9/24/2011

San Diego St.

Home

10/1/2011

Minnesota

Home

113

10/8/2011

Northwestern

Away

10/15/2011

Michigan St.

Away

10/29/2011

Purdue

Home

11/5/2011

Iowa

Away

11/12/2011

Illinois

Away

11/19/2011

Nebraska

Home

11/26/2011

Ohio St.

Home

Ohio State which is currently 6-5 under a strength of schedule of 57.2. Ohio State ranks #49 in the nation overall. The Buckeyes are #83 ranked offense and #16 ranked defense. Here's are the Buckeyes regular season schedule and results.

Date

Opponent

Venue

SOS

Result

9/3/2011

Akron

Home

116

9/10/2011

Toledo

Home

9/17/2011

Miami (FL)

Away

9/24/2011

Colorado

Home

117

10/1/2011

Michigan St.

Home

10/8/2011

Nebraska

Away

10/15/2011

Illinois

Away

10/29/2011

Wisconsin

Home

11/5/2011

Indiana

Home

111

11/12/2011

Purdue

Away

11/19/2011

Penn St.

Home

11/26/2011

Michigan

Away

Given the data from the model, Michigan is the more productive team, and thus the model concludes that Michigan is the favorite this season.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

LSU vs Arkansas - 2011

On November 25th LSU faces the University of Arkansas. In terms of BCS rankings, LSU is ranked #1 and Arkansas is ranked #3.

Earlier in the season, I examined LSU and Alabama. You will notice that the rankings and strength of schedule have changed since then, as more data changes each.

LSU is currently 11-0. In terms of the NCAA FBS Production model, LSU is the #3 ranked team overall with the #14 ranked offense and the 2nd highest ranked defense as of last weekend. LSU has played against a strength of schedule equal to 67.09, which is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Here is LSU's regular season schedule.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/3/2011	Oregon	40	27	8	W
9/10/2011	Northwestern St.	49	3	121	W
9/15/2011	Mississippi St.	19	6	63	W
9/24/2011	West Virginia	47	21	17	W
10/1/2011	Kentucky	35	7	102	W
10/8/2011	Florida	41	11	61	W
10/15/2011	Tennessee	38	7	73	W
10/22/2011	Auburn	45	10	80	W
11/5/2011	Alabama	9	6	4	W
11/12/2011	Western Ky.	42	9	97	W
11/19/2011	Ole Miss	52	3	112	W
11/25/2011	Arkansas

Arkansas is currently 10-1, with their only loss to Alabama. From the NCAA FBS production model, the University of Arkansas is the #20 ranked team overall with the #17 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense. Arkansas has played against a strength of schedule equal to 69.5 - again easier than the average strength of schedule.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/3/2011	Missouri St.	51	7	121	W
9/10/2011	New Mexico	52	3	119	W
9/17/2011	Troy	38	28	95	W
9/24/2011	Alabama	14	38	4	L
10/1/2011	Texas A&M	42	38	47	W
10/8/2011	Auburn	38	14	80	W
10/22/2011	Ole Miss	29	24	112	W
10/29/2011	Vanderbilt	31	28	39	W
11/5/2011	South Carolina	44	28	11	W
11/12/2011	Tennessee	49	7	73	W
11/19/2011	Mississippi St.	44	17	63	W
11/25/2011	LSU

Thus in terms of the production model, LSU is the better team on defense relative to Arkansas' defense and thus from the data and the model's weights, LSU is expected to win.

Texas and Texas A&M in 2011

Texas and Texas A&M may be playing today for the last time in a while since Texas A&M is moving from the Big 12 conference to the SEC next year. So, let's take a look at this Thanksgiving game through the eyes of the NCAA FBS production model.

Texas is currently 6-4 playing as of last week against a strength of schedule of 65.7. Texas in the NCAA production model is currently the #32 ranked team overall, with their offense ranked #69 and their defense ranked #12. For a quick overview of the Longhorns season, here is their regular season schedule.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/3/2011	Rice	34	9	104	W
9/10/2011	BYU	17	16	40	W
9/17/2011	UCLA	49	20	66	W
10/1/2011	Iowa St.	37	14	96	W
10/8/2011	Oklahoma	17	55	10	L
10/15/2011	Oklahoma St.	26	38	7	L
10/29/2011	Kansas	43	0	120	W
11/5/2011	Texas Tech	52	20	99	W
11/12/2011	Missouri	5	17	41	L
11/19/2011	Kansas St.	13	17	74	L
11/24/2011	Texas A&M
12/3/2011	Baylor

Texas A&M is currently 6-5 against a strength of schedule of 61.2. The Texas A&M Aggies are currently ranked as the #47 team overall, with an offense ranked at #32 and their defense ranked at #57.

Date	Opponent	PF	PA	SOS	Result
9/4/2011	SMU	46	14	64	W
9/17/2011	Idaho	37	7	108	W
9/24/2011	Oklahoma St.	29	30	7	L
10/1/2011	Arkansas	38	42	20	L
10/8/2011	Texas Tech	45	40	99	W
10/15/2011	Baylor	55	28	34	W
10/22/2011	Iowa St.	33	17	96	W
10/29/2011	Missouri	31	38	41	L
11/5/2011	Oklahoma	25	41	10	L
11/12/2011	Kansas St.	50	53	74	L
11/19/2011	Kansas	61	7	120	W
11/24/2011	Texas

So in terms of the model, Texas is slightly more productive than Texas A&M, and thus from the model's viewpoint is favored in today's game.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Stanford Head Coach and BCS

ESPN reports that Stanford's head football coach David Shaw stated that the BCS system for ranking teams is "flawed". Shaw said, "[t]o have a one-loss Pac-12 team behind a one-loss ACC team (Virginia Tech) means that the computer values the ACC more than it values the Pac-12. Which I don't believe is the case. I don't think that's accurate."

Let's take this criticism of the current BCS system from a different viewpoint.
How can Houston be currently ranked #8 in the BCS with zero losses and be behind a one loss Stanford team (among others)? Why is no one asking this question?

Anyway, back to Shaw's statement about the BCS being "flawed". It seems that coach Shaw has taken exception with the computer rankings. Coach Shaw has publicly questioned the use of quality wins or quality losses. On the positive side, my model does not have any adjustment for "quality wins or losses". On the negative side, my model does not have any adjustment for wins or losses at all, but rather on four on-field events: acquiring possession of the ball, maintaining possession of the ball, the ability of moving the ball forward, and scoring efficiency. No the model does not take into account a team's strength of schedule, as this does not statistically impact winning percentage of NCAA FBS schools. I will write on this in much more detail after the conclusion of the NCAA FBS post-season.

Given that Stanford is currently ranked 6th in the BCS and coach Shaw is questioning this ranking, he would not be a fan of this model - which has Stanford currently as the #12 most productive team in the nation. Stanford is behind Wisconsin, Michigan State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia and South Carolina all with two losses.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 12

Here is the most recent Top 25 of the NCAA FBS production model.
I have also listed the teams most recent BCS ranking if applicable.

	Top 25 Production
Rank		School	BCS
1		Houston	(8)
2		Wisconsin	(16)
3		LSU	(1)
4		Alabama	(2)
5		Boise State	(7)
6		Michigan State	(14)
7		Oklahoma State	(4)
8		Oregon	(10)
9		Georgia	(13)
10		Oklahoma	(9)
11		South Carolina	(12)
12		Stanford	(6)
13		Georgia Tech	(23)
14		Florida State	(-)
15		Virginia Tech	(5)
16		Temple	(-)
17		West Virginia	(-)
18		Michigan	(15)
19		TCU	(20)
20		Arkansas	(3)
21		Arkansas State	(-)
22		Cincinnati	(-)
23		Southern Mississippi	(-)
24		Penn State	(19)
25		San Diego State	(-)

Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking

Monday, November 21, 2011

2011 University of Miami Bowl Decision

The University of Miami has voluntarily decided not to attend one of the post-season NCAA FBS bowls following the 2011 regular season schedule. It is speculated that this is in response to an on-going NCAA rules violations investigation of its football team.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Michigan - Nebraska - 2011

This weekend the University of Michigan hosts the University of Nebraska and may be most intriguing game this weekend. UPDATE: Just saw that Iowa State defeated Oklahoma State in double overtime.

So let's take a look at how the production model assess each team's overall production, offensive production and defensive production. First for the blue and maize: the University of Michigan is 8-2 and is currently the number 16th team in overall productivity. On the offensive side of the ball Michigan has the 15th most productive offense and the 34th most productive defense. Michigan has played against a strength of schedule equal to 59.0, which is just slightly more difficult than an average FBS schedule (theoretically).

On the other side of the ball, we have the red and white (and don't forget those blackshirts) from the University of Nebraska. In terms of overall production, Nebraska has slipped over the last few weeks. Nebraksa is 8-2 and is now sitting as the #43rd most productive team overall, with the #42 offense and #46 defense. They have played (as of last weekend) a strength of schedule equal to 62.7, which is about average.

With these numbers, the production model states that Michigan is a more productive team than is Nebraska.

Friday, November 18, 2011

NCAA Division I Revenues and Expenses for 2009-2010

The USA Today reports that 22 of the 218 Division I schools finished in the black financially for the 2009-2010 academic year. Here is the table from the article.

School	Total revenue	Generated revenue	Allocated revenue	Total expenses	Difference
Oregon	$122,394,483	$119,709,341	$2,685,142	$77,856,232	$41,853,109*
Alabama	$130,542,153	$125,562,153	$4,980,000	$98,961,214	$26,600,939
Penn State	$106,614,724	$106,614,724	$0	$88,041,921	$18,572,803
Michigan	$106,874,031	$106,640,861	$233,170	$89,133,850	$17,507,011
Oklahoma State	$106,362,128	$100,708,922	$5,653,206	$83,748,207	$16,960,715
Iowa	$88,735,093	$88,209,386	$525,707	$74,438,196	$13,771,190
Texas	$143,555,354	$143,555,354	$0	$130,436,534	$13,118,820
Oklahoma	$98,512,287	$98,512,287	$0	$87,678,199	$10,834,088
Georgia	$89,735,934	$86,533,389	$3,202,545	$77,250,831	$9,282,558
LSU	$111,030,795	$111,030,795	$0	$102,326,769	$8,704,026
Kansas State	$53,436,790	$50,201,682	$3,235,108	$42,337,682	$7,864,000
Florida	$117,104,407	$112,693,506	$4,410,901	$105,824,376	$6,869,130
Texas A&M	$82,774,133	$82,774,133	$0	$75,941,926	$6,832,207
Arkansas	$78,072,620	$76,377,647	$1,694,973	$71,801,905	$4,575,742
Purdue	$61,653,561	$61,653,561	$0	$58,365,143	$3,288,418
Michigan State	$83,545,892	$83,545,892	$3,348,785	$78,162,447	$2,034,660
Nebraska	$73,483,733	$73,483,733	$0	$71,738,068	$1,745,665
West Virginia	$62,030,104	$57,774,867	$4,255,237	$56,607,917	$1,166,950
Indiana	$69,287,811	$66,905,296	$2,382,515	$65,796,415	$1,108,881
Virginia Tech	$63,613,464	$56,706,913	$6,906,551	$55,738,633	$968,280
Ohio State	$123,174, 176	$123,174, 176	$0	$122,739,754	$434,422
Washington	$64,034,410	$61,851,895	$2,182,515	$61,640,598	$211,297
*School says unusual surplus is due to non-cash gift of John E. Jaqua Academic Center for Student Athletes. Note: Amounts not adjusted for inflation. Sources: USA TODAY research, individual schools