Monday, January 1, 2018

2017 All-State Sugar Bowl

On Monday the All-State Sugar Bowl (national championship semi-final #2) pits the Alabama Crimson Tide from the Southeastern Conference against the Clemson Tigers from the Atlantic Coast Conference.  So here is my analysis of the All-State Sugar Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide finished the regular season at 11-1, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Alabama's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Crimson Tide's best victory was over #17 ranked LSU by a score of (24-10).  The Crimson Tide's only loss was to #11 ranked Auburn by a score of (14-26).  Alabama has the #1 ranked team in total production with the #13 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Clemson Tigers
The Tigers finished the regular season at 11-1, then defeated #15 ranked Miami (FL) in the Atlantic Coast conference championship game by a score of (38-3) to be 12-1 currently.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Clemson's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Tigers' best victory was over #10 ranked Louisville by a score of  (47-21).  Clemson's only loss was to #104 ranked Syracuse by a score of (24-27).  Clemson has the #8 ranked team in total production with the #16 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
Dollar General Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl 
Quick Lane Bowl
Cactus Bowl
Walk On's Independence Bowl
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Foster Farms Bowl
Academy Sports & Outdoor Texas Bowl 
Military Bowl 
Camping World Bowl
SDCCU Holiday Bowl 
Valero Alamo Bowl
Belk Bowl
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl 
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl