Saturday, January 6, 2018

2017 NCAA FBS National Championship Game

The culmination of the NCAA FBS 2017 takes place as the University of Alabama Crimson Tide and the University of Georgia Bulldogs (both of the Southeastern Conference) will play for the national championship (unless you are the University of Central Florida - which has already claimed that title for their own).  So here is my analysis of the National Championship Game based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide finished the regular season at 11-1, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Alabama's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Crimson Tide's best victory was over #17 ranked LSU by a score of (24-10).  The Crimson Tide's only loss was to #11 ranked Auburn by a score of (14-26).  Alabama has the #1 ranked team in total production with the #13 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Last Monday night, Alabama defeated #8 ranked Clemson in the All-State Sugar Bowl by a score of (24-6) to be currently 12-1.

Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs finished the regular season at 11-1, and defeated #11 ranked Auburn (28-7) in the Southeastern conference championship game to be currently 12-1 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Georgia's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Bulldogs' best victory was over #20 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (31-10).  The Bulldogs' only loss was to #11 ranked Auburn (during the regular season) by a score of (17-40).  Georgia has the #9 ranked team in total production with the #20 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Last Monday night, Georgia defeated #4 ranked Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl by a score of (54-48 - OT) to be currently 13-1.

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