Now that the NFL regular season is wrapped up, it is time to take a look at how competitively balanced the NFL was last season. In order to do this, I am going to look at the NFL season statistically as a sample and as a population - mainly for comparison purposes. Additionally, I will take a look at the conferences separately in terms of competitive balance. The data comes from profootball-reference.com.
There are a lot of ways to measure competitive balance, and I have chosen to use a simple measure called the Noll-Scully Competitive balance measure. By competitive balance we are looking at how well a league's standings are in relation to a league where wins and losses are determined randomly. Here is a step-by-step guide if you want to calculate this on your own. As a reference, here is the Noll-Scully using a sample or a population for the NFL since 1981.
For the NFL in 2013 the Noll-Scully was 1.527 (population) and 1.551 (sample). If you click on the link in the last sentence above, you will notice that the NFL's competitive balance for this past season is very similar to recent seasons. Additionally notice that the NFL and the NCAA FBS "leagues" measure of competitive balance are also very similar.
Monday, January 27, 2014
Sunday, January 19, 2014
MMA Monopsonist and Labor Supply
Bleacher Report has a great article on the business of MMA and has a link to Eddie Alvarez's contract. Given that MMA does not have a "players" union, we see some similar labor market behavior to the time period in other professional sports before collective bargaining. This is an example of a monopsonist facing a competitive labor supply market, where the profit maximizing solution is to set the wage in the competitive labor supply market below what would occur in a competitive labor market.
Saturday, January 18, 2014
Bloomberg on the SEC's Football Dominance
Bloomberg has some interesting charts on why the SEC dominates college football. Whether that is universally true is a testable hypothesis and one that I want to look at later in the year. In my Sports Economics course I make a different argument, but the charts in the article linked above are illustrative.
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Final Top 25 for 2013-2014 Season
Now that all the games are in the books, here is the last top 25 for the 2013-2014 college football season.
Previous Top 25 Ranks for 2013
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Florida State |
| 2 | Louisville |
| 3 | Oregon |
| 4 | Baylor |
| 5 | Ohio State |
| 6 | Michigan State |
| 7 | Alabama |
| 8 | Marshall |
| 9 | Wisconsin |
| 10 | Clemson |
| 11 | LSU |
| 12 | Washington |
| 13 | Missouri |
| 14 | South Carolina |
| 15 | Oklahoma State |
| 16 | Northern Illinois |
| 17 | Bowling Green |
| 18 | East Carolina |
| 19 | Fresno State |
| 20 | UCF |
| 21 | Ball State |
| 22 | Houston |
| 23 | Utah State |
| 24 | Arizona State |
| 25 | Cincinnati |
Previous Top 25 Ranks for 2013
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Fiesta Bowl 2014
The Fiesta Bowl has the Baylor Bears of the Big 12 Conference
facing the Central Florida Knights of the American Athletic Conference. Let's take a
look at how these two teams stack up using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The Baylor Bears are currently 11-1, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. The Bears best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #30 Oklahoma, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #19 Oklahoma State. In terms of the model, Baylor is currently ranked as the #3 most productive team overall, with the #2 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense.
The Central Florida Knights also finished the regular season at 11-1, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Knights best game was a victory over currently ranked #2 Louisville and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #11 South Carolina. The Knights are currently the #20 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #27 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense.
Expect Baylor to be victorious in today's Fiesta Bowl.
| Fiesta Bowl 2014 | ||
| Bears | Knights | |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 3 | 20 |
| Offense | 2 | 27 |
| Defense | 15 | 18 |
| SOS | 72.58 | 73.25 |
| Best | 30 | 2 |
| Worst | 19 | 11 |
The Baylor Bears are currently 11-1, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. The Bears best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #30 Oklahoma, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #19 Oklahoma State. In terms of the model, Baylor is currently ranked as the #3 most productive team overall, with the #2 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense.
The Central Florida Knights also finished the regular season at 11-1, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Knights best game was a victory over currently ranked #2 Louisville and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #11 South Carolina. The Knights are currently the #20 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #27 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense.
Expect Baylor to be victorious in today's Fiesta Bowl.
Rose Bowl 2014
The Rose Bowl has the Stanford Cardinal of the Pac 12 Conference
facing the Michigan State Spartans of the Big 10 Conference. Let's take a
look at how these two teams stack up using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The Michigan State Spartans are currently 12-1, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average. The Spartans best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #6 Ohio State, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) and only defeat was to currently ranked #85 Notre Dame. In terms of the model, Michigan State is currently ranked as the #7 most productive team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.
The Stanford Cardinal finished the regular season at 11-2, while playing against a "tougher" SOS. The Cardinal best game was a victory over currently ranked #5 Oregon and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #80 Utah. The Cardinal are currently the #29 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #38 ranked offense and the #25 ranked defense.
Expect Michigan State to be victorious in today's Rose Bowl.
| Rose Bowl 2014 | ||
| Spartans | Cardinal | |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
| Total | 7 | 29 |
| Offense | 44 | 38 |
| Defense | 2 | 25 |
| SOS | 76.85 | 56.46 |
| Best | 6 | 5 |
| Worst | 85 | 80 |
The Michigan State Spartans are currently 12-1, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average. The Spartans best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #6 Ohio State, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) and only defeat was to currently ranked #85 Notre Dame. In terms of the model, Michigan State is currently ranked as the #7 most productive team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.
The Stanford Cardinal finished the regular season at 11-2, while playing against a "tougher" SOS. The Cardinal best game was a victory over currently ranked #5 Oregon and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #80 Utah. The Cardinal are currently the #29 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #38 ranked offense and the #25 ranked defense.
Expect Michigan State to be victorious in today's Rose Bowl.
Outback Bowl 2014
The Outback Bowl has the LSU Tigers of the South East Conference
facing the Iowa Hawkeyes of the Big 10 Conference. Let's take a
look at how these two teams stack up using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The LSU Tigers are currently 9-3, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. The Tigers best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #25 Auburn, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #27 Georgia. In terms of the model, LSU is currently ranked as the #9 most productive team overall, with the #16 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The Iowa Hawkeyes finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Hawkeyes best game was a victory over currently ranked #45 Michigan and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #14 Northern Illinois. The Hawkeyes are currently the #40 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #75 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.
Expect LSU to be victorious in today's Outback Bowl.
| Outback Bowl 2014 | ||
| Tigers | Hawkeyes | |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 9 | 40 |
| Offense | 16 | 75 |
| Defense | 10 | 7 |
| SOS | 60.50 | 60.92 |
| Best | 25 | 45 |
| Worst | 27 | 14 |
The LSU Tigers are currently 9-3, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. The Tigers best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #25 Auburn, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #27 Georgia. In terms of the model, LSU is currently ranked as the #9 most productive team overall, with the #16 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The Iowa Hawkeyes finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Hawkeyes best game was a victory over currently ranked #45 Michigan and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #14 Northern Illinois. The Hawkeyes are currently the #40 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #75 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.
Expect LSU to be victorious in today's Outback Bowl.
Capital One Bowl 2014
The Capital One Bowl has the South Carolina Gamecocks of the South East Conference
facing the Wisconsin Badgers of the Big 10 Conference. Let's take a
look at how these two teams stack up using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are currently 10-2, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. The Gamecocks best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #13 Missouri, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #88 Tennessee. In terms of the model, South Carolina is currently ranked as the #11 most productive team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.
The Wisconsin Badgers finished the regular season at 9-3, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Badgers best game was a victory over currently ranked #40 Iowa and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #60 Penn State. The Badgers are currently the #8 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #23 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense.
Expect Wisconsin to be victorious in today's Capital One Bowl.
| Capital One Bowl 2014 | ||
| Gamecocks | Badgers | |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Total | 11 | 8 |
| Offense | 21 | 23 |
| Defense | 12 | 6 |
| SOS | 57.83 | 72.17 |
| Best | 13 | 40 |
| Worst | 88 | 60 |
The South Carolina Gamecocks are currently 10-2, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. The Gamecocks best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #13 Missouri, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #88 Tennessee. In terms of the model, South Carolina is currently ranked as the #11 most productive team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.
The Wisconsin Badgers finished the regular season at 9-3, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Badgers best game was a victory over currently ranked #40 Iowa and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #60 Penn State. The Badgers are currently the #8 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #23 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense.
Expect Wisconsin to be victorious in today's Capital One Bowl.
Heart of Dallas Bowl 2014
The Heart of Dallas Bowl has the North Texas Mean Green of Conference
USA facing the UNLV Rebels of the Mountain West Conference. Let's take a
look at how these two teams stack up using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The North Texas Mean Green finished the season at 8-4, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. North Texas' best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a win over currently ranked #18 Ball State, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #73 Ohio. In terms of the model, North Texas is currently ranked as the #34 most productive team overall, with the #45 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense.
The UNLV Rebels finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Rebels best game was a victory over currently ranked #87 Central Michigan and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #76 San Jose State. The Rebels are currently the #67 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #59 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense.
Expect North Texas to be victorious in today's Heart of Dallas Bowl.
| Heart of Dallas Bowl 2014 | ||
| Mean Green | Rebels | |
| Wins | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Total | 34 | 67 |
| Offense | 45 | 59 |
| Defense | 30 | 80 |
| SOS | 73.67 | 79.67 |
| Best | 18 | 87 |
| Worst | 73 | 76 |
The North Texas Mean Green finished the season at 8-4, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the"league" average. North Texas' best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a win over currently ranked #18 Ball State, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #73 Ohio. In terms of the model, North Texas is currently ranked as the #34 most productive team overall, with the #45 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense.
The UNLV Rebels finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Rebels best game was a victory over currently ranked #87 Central Michigan and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #76 San Jose State. The Rebels are currently the #67 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #59 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense.
Expect North Texas to be victorious in today's Heart of Dallas Bowl.
Gator Bowl 2013
The Gator Bowl has the Georgia Bulldogs of the South East Conference facing the Nebraska Cornhuskers of the Big 10 Conference. Let's take a look at how these two teams stack up using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
The Georgia Bulldogs are currently 8-4, playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that Georgia's SOS of 47.67 was between one and two standard deviations smaller than the "league" average. The Bulldogs best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #9 LSU, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #50 Vanderbilt. In terms of the model, Georgia is currently ranked as the #27 most productive team overall, with the #18 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers also finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Huskers best game was a victory over currently ranked #45 Michigan and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #61 Minnesota. The Cornhuskers are currently the #51 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #52 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense.
Expect Georgia to be victorious in today's Gator Bowl.
| Gator Bowl 2014 | ||
| Bulldogs | Cornhuskers | |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Total | 27 | 51 |
| Offense | 18 | 52 |
| Defense | 57 | 54 |
| SOS | 47.67 | 71.58 |
| Best | 9 | 45 |
| Worst | 50 | 61 |
The Georgia Bulldogs are currently 8-4, playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that Georgia's SOS of 47.67 was between one and two standard deviations smaller than the "league" average. The Bulldogs best game (win over highest ranked team in the CICFPM) was a defeat of currently ranked #9 LSU, and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #50 Vanderbilt. In terms of the model, Georgia is currently ranked as the #27 most productive team overall, with the #18 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers also finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an "average" SOS. The Huskers best game was a victory over currently ranked #45 Michigan and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #61 Minnesota. The Cornhuskers are currently the #51 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #52 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense.
Expect Georgia to be victorious in today's Gator Bowl.
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