Rick Neuheisel Out at UCLA

Head football coach Rick Neuheisel has been fired by UCLA. Given that UCLA has a high profile football program, there is a great deal of speculation about other candidates for this position. Since his firing, coach Neuheisel claims that UCLA needs to invest more in the football program financially. This is an interesting statement that I hope to look into further later in the future.

Since this is Neuheisel's last season as UCLA's head coach, let's take a look at how UCLA has performed in terms of productivity since 2008. I will take the most recent season first and finish with the 2008 season.

In 2011, the Bruins are (as of Nov. 26th 2011) 6-6 and currently are bowl eligible against a strength of schedule equal to 54.08. UCLA has petitioned for a waiver to remain bowl eligible if they lose in the Pac 12 championship game this coming weekend. In terms of production, UCLA is currently the #73 most productive team overall, with an offense that is #48 in terms of production and a defense that is #95 in relative productivity.

In 2010, UCLA was 4-8 playing against a strength of schedule measure of 55.17. In terms of production, UCLA had the #106 ranked team, with the #100 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense. This was the lowest production during Neuheisel's tenure.

In 2009, the UCLA Bruins were 7-5 in the regular season, with a loss to Temple in their bowl game. UCLA played against a strength of schedule equal to 55.15 - which is above (stronger) than average. In terms of production, UCLA had the #63 ranked team, with the #83 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense. This was the most productive team under Neuheisel's tenure.

In 2008, UCLA was 4-8 against a strength of schedule of 50.25. UCLA played against a strength of schedule equal to 50.25 - which again is above (stronger) than average. In terms of production, UCLA had the #101 ranked team, with the #109 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense.

Ohio State's New Head Football Coach Urban Meyer

The Ohio State University announced their new head football coach is Urban Meyer. I had previously blogged about Florida under head coach Meyer, and here are the offense, defense and total rankings for the Florida Gators from 2008 to 2010.

This year, Ohio State has the following rankings as of November 26th 2011.
Ohio State finished the regular season at 6-6, which is bowl eligible. Ohio State's best win was over currently ranked (production model) #2 Wisconsin, and their worst loss was against currently ranked in the production model #82 Purdue. The Buckeyes currently are the #66 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision (i.e. below average). This is primarily due to their below average offense (ranked #89 in the nation) and is offset by their above average defense (#32) in the nation. Given that Ohio State has had success recruiting above average football players, it should not take Meyer long to right Ohio State's ship.

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 13

Here are the latest NCAA FBS top 25 production rankings as of last weekend. I have also listed the teams BCS rank in parenthesis - if applicable.

	Top 25 Production
Rank		School	BCS
1		Houston	(6)
2		Wisconsin	(15)
3		Oklahoma State	(3)
4		Oregon	(9)
5		LSU	(1)
6		Alabama	(2)
7		Oklahoma	(10)
8		Boise State	(7)
9		Stanford	(4)
10		Southern Mississippi	(24)
11		Georgia	(14)
12		Michigan State	(13)
13		Toledo	(-)
14		Virginia Tech	(5)
15		South Carolina	(12)
16		USC	(-)
17		Baylor	(17)
18		Michigan	(16)
19		Texas A&M	(-)
20		Northern Illinois	(-)
21		Missouri	(25)
22		Georgia Tech	(-)
23		West Virginia	(23)
24		Florida State	(-)
25		Arkansas State	(-)

Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking

The Iron Bowl - 2011 Edition

Last year I wrote a short piece on the Iron Bowl, and for the first half all looked well. Then Auburn stormed back and won the game, propelling them to the SEC championship and the national championship game.

So let's take a quick look at the Iron Bowl 2011 game through the eyes of the FBS production model.

Earlier this season, I took a look at the Alabama Crimson Tide when they faced the LSU Tigers, and in terms of the model and strength of schedule, you will notice some differences in the numbers from the model - just like now the teams won-loss record is different. As more games (and data) are played, the rankings and strength of schedule change. So with that in mind, starting with the Alabama Crimson Tide, they currently are 10-1 against a schedule strength of 63.3. The FBS production model has Alabama currently as the #4 highest ranked team in the nation. On the offensive side of the ball Alabama is ranked #37. Alabama currently has the #1 defense in the nation. To see who Alabama has played and their current rank, here is their regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Kent St.		48		7		75		W
9/10/2011		Penn St.		27		11		24		W
9/17/2011		North Texas		41		0		105		W
9/24/2011		Arkansas		38		14		20		W
10/1/2011		Florida		38		10		61		W
10/8/2011		Vanderbilt		34		0		39		W
10/15/2011		Ole Miss		52		7		112		W
10/22/2011		Tennessee		37		6		73		W
11/5/2011		LSU		6		9		3		L
11/12/2011		Mississippi St.		24		7		63		W
11/19/2011		Ga. Southern		45		21		121		W
11/26/2011		Auburn

Turning to the Auburn Tigers, who are 7-4 against a strength of schedule equal to 53.5 which is much more difficult than an average schedule. Auburn is the #80th ranked team in the nation. Yes, last year's "national champion" is currently a below average FBS team. The Auburn Tigers are currently the #76th ranked offense and currently the #80th ranked defense.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Utah St.		42		38		27		W
9/10/2011		Mississippi St.		41		34		63		W
9/17/2011		Clemson		24		38		54		L
9/24/2011		Fla. Atlantic		30		14		107		W
10/1/2011		South Carolina		16		13		11		W
10/8/2011		Arkansas		14		38		20		L
10/15/2011		Florida		17		6		61		W
10/22/2011		LSU		10		45		3		L
10/29/2011		Ole Miss		41		23		112		W
11/12/2011		Georgia		7		45		9		L
11/19/2011		Samford		35		16		121		W
11/26/2011		Alabama

So in terms of the NCAA FBS production model Alabama is significantly more productive than Auburn. I made the same prediction last year - Alabama over Auburn.

Clemson - South Carolina 2011

On Saturday Clemson and South Carolina pick up their rivalry for bragging rights in South Carolina. Both Clemson and South Carolina are ranked in the BCS standings. Currently South Carolina is ranked #12 and Clemson is ranked #17. Thus in terms of the BCS standings this should be a competitive game. What about the production model?

Clemson is currently 9-2 against a strength of schedule equal to 61.5. Clemson in the production model is the #54 team in the nation, with the #38th ranked offense and the #61st ranked defense.

South Carolina is also 9-2 against a SOS equal to 66.0. South Carolina from the production model is the #11th most productive team in the nation, with the #43 ranked offense and the #7th ranked defense.

Thus according to the production model, South Carolina is the more productive team, and the team I would expect to win today's game.

Iowa - Nebraska 2011

With Nebraska moving to the Big 10 this season, Nebraska finishes out their conference schedule today at home against Iowa. In terms of the BCS, Nebraska is a significantly higher ranked team than Iowa (unranked). Let's take a look how the two teams fare under the production model.

Iowa is currently 7-4 against a SOS equal to 72.1. In the production model, the Hawkeyes are the #57 ranked team overall. Iowa is the #45 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense.

Nebraska is currently 8-3 against a SOS equal to 56.9. In the production model the Huskers are the #55 ranked team overall. On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska is the #55 ranked team, and on the defensive side of the ball the Huskers are the #47 ranked defense.

Thus the game should be competitive, with two slightly above average productive teams facing each other. I would say that the results of the model make calling the game too close to call.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin - 2011

Michigan State will face the winner of this game in the inaugural Big Ten Football Conference Championship Game on December 3rd. So let's take a look at Penn State and Wisconsin through the lens of the NCAA FBS Production model.

Penn State is currently 9-2. Penn State is the #24th ranked team overall, with the #80th ranked offense and the #6th ranked defense. Penn State has played up to this point in the season against a strength of schedule equal 61.5, which is slightly harder than on average. Penn State's regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Indiana St.		41		7		121		W
9/10/2011		Alabama		11		27		4		L
9/17/2011		Temple		14		10		16		W
9/24/2011		Eastern Mich.		34		6		78		W
10/1/2011		Indiana		16		10		111		W
10/8/2011		Iowa		13		3		57		W
10/15/2011		Purdue		23		18		87		W
10/22/2011		Northwestern		34		24		70		W
10/29/2011		Illinois		10		7		29		W
11/12/2011		Nebraska		14		17		55		L
11/19/2011		Ohio St.		20		14		49		W
11/26/2011		Wisconsin

Wisconsin is currently 9-2. The Badgers are the #2 highest ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense. The Badgers have a strength of schedule equal to 74.5, which is easier than an average FBS strength of schedule. Wisconsin's 2011 schedule is below.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/1/2011		UNLV		51		17		110		W
9/10/2011		Oregon St.		35		0		93		W
9/17/2011		Northern Ill.		49		7		45		W
9/24/2011		South Dakota		59		10		121		W
10/1/2011		Nebraska		48		17		55		W
10/15/2011		Indiana		59		7		111		W
10/22/2011		Michigan St.		31		37		6		L
10/29/2011		Ohio St.		29		33		49		L
11/5/2011		Purdue		62		17		87		W
11/12/2011		Minnesota		42		13		113		W
11/19/2011		Illinois		28		17		29		W
11/26/2011		Penn St.