Norm Chow out at Hawai'i

Norm Chow has been fired as head football coach of the University of Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors.  Given the uncertainty surrounding the football program at Hawai'i, let's take a look at the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors under the last two head coaches:  Greg McMackin (2008-11) and Norm Chow (2012-15).

Head Football Coach Greg McMackin (2008-2011)

2008
Starting with head coach McMackin's first season as head coach, Hawai'i finished the 2008 regular season at 7-6 and lost their bowl game to #60 ranked Notre Dame 21-49 to finish 7-7 for the season.  For the season as a whole, the Warriors played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Hawai'i's best game was their 38-31 victory over #32 ranked Nevada and their worst loss was to #103 ranked Utah State 14-30.  Overall, the Warriors had the #95 most productive college football team with the #65 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Warriors finished the regular season at 6-7.  Hawai'i played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS.  Hawai'i best game was a 24-17 victory over #32 ranked Navy and their worst game was a 33-34 loss was to #108 ranked UNLV.  Overall, the Warriors had the #68 ranked team in terms of total production with the #41 ranked offense and the #94 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Hawai'i finished the regular season at 10-3 and finished 10-4 with the loss to #26 ranked Tulsa in their bowl game.  Hawai'i again played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Warriors had a SOS that was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  The Warriors best game was a 27-21 victory over #7 ranked Nevada, and their worst game was a 13-31 loss to #81 ranked Colorado.  Hawai'i finished the season with the #13 ranked team in overall productivity with the #3 ranked offense and the #74 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Hawai'i finished the regular season at 6-7.   Hawai'i again played a "much easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was more than two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  The Warriors best game was a 44-26 victory over #39 ranked Louisiana Tech and their worst game was a 20-40 loss was to#117 ranked UNLV.  Hawai'i had the #63 ranked team in terms of total production with the #38 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.   At the end of the season, head football coach Greg McMackin resigned under pressure.

Head Football Coach Norm Chow (2012-2015)

2012  
Norm Chow was hired to replace head coach Greg McMackin in December 2011.   In terms of wins and losses, the University of Hawai'i finished the regular season bowl ineligible at 3-9.  Hawai'i played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warriors best game was again a 48-10 victory over #109 ranked UNLV and their worst loss was 27-42 to #98 ranked Colorado State.  Overall, Hawai'i had the #119 ranked team with the #121 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2013
Hawai'i finished the regular season at 1-11. The Rainbow Warriors played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their only victory was over #87 ranked Army and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Nevada 9-31.  Overall, Hawai'i had the #108 ranked team with the #88 ranked offense and the #114 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

2014
Hawai'i finishing the regular season at 4-9.  Hawai'i played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Warriors best game was again a victory over #104 ranked San Jose State 13-0 (other three victories were over #125 UNLV; FCS UNI and #109 Wyoming) and their worst loss was to #116 ranked Colorado 12-21.  Overall, the Warriors had the #112 ranked team with the #107 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Head football coach Norm Chow made it through week 9 of the regular season with a 2-7 record before he was let go.  At the time of coach Chow's firing Hawai'i played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warriors best win was over #58 ranked Colorado 28-20 and their worst loss was to #78 ranked Nevada 20-30.  At the time of Chow's firing, Hawai'i had the #125 ranked team in total production (4th worst in all of the FBS) with the #127 ranked offense and the #115 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill

Jerry Kill Retires as Head Football Coach at Minnesota

Head football coach Jerry Kill has retired due to health reasons.  So, let's take a look at the University of Minnesota Golden Golphers since 2008 which covers the second season under head football coach Tim Brewster and all of Jerry Kill's tenure as head football coach.  Below is a chart of the offense, defense and total production using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Below the chart are more details of the Golden Gophers football teams since 2008.

Head Football Coach Tim Brewster from 2008-2010

2008
Starting during Tim Brewster's second season as head coach, Minnesota finished the 2008 regular season at 7-6.  For the season as a whole, the Golden Gopher's played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Minnesota's best game was their victory over #44 ranked Northern Illinois and their worst loss was to #91 ranked Michigan.  Overall, the Golden Gopher's had the #75 most productive college football team with the #70 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Golden Gopher's finished the regular season bowl eligible at 6-6 and finished overall at 6-7 with a bowl loss to #82 ranked Iowa State Cyclones.  Minnesota played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was plus or minus one standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  Minnesota's best game was a 20-13 victory over #12 ranked Air Force and their worst game was a 32-35 loss was to Big 10 rival #95 ranked Illinois.  Overall, the Golden Gopher's had the #80 ranked team in terms of total production with the #94 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
In what ended up as head football coach Tim Brewster's final year at the helm of the Golden Gophers, Minnesota finished the  regular season at 3-9. Minnesota again played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Golden Gopher's had a SOS that was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Gopher's best game was over #17 ranked Iowa to keep Floyd of Rosedale, and their worst game was a 38-41 loss to FCS South Dakota.  Minnesota finished the season with the #89 ranked team in overall productivity with the #86 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Head Football Coach Jerry Kill (2011-2015)

2011
In December 2010 the University of Minnesota Golden Gopher's hired head football coach Jerry Kill.  Minnesota finished the regular season at 3-9 and were bowl ineligible.   Minnesota again played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Gopher's best game was a 22-21 victory over #58 ranked Iowa and their worst game was a 24-37 loss was to FCS North Dakota State.  Minnesota had the #101 ranked team in terms of total production with the #109 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
In terms of wins and losses, the University of Minnesota finished the regular season bowl eligible  at 6-6 but lost to #48 ranked Texas Tech 31-34 in the bowl game to finish 6-7 overall.  Minnesota played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Minnesota's best game was again a 17-10 victory over #30 ranked Syracuse and their worst loss was 13-31 to #82 ranked Iowa.  Overall, Minnesota had the #90 ranked team with the #100 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2013
Minnesota finished the regular season at 8-4 and lost to #74 ranked Syracuse 17-21 in their post bowl season. The Golden Gopher's played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #39 ranked Nebraska of 34-23 and their worst loss was in the bowl game.  Overall, Minnesota had the #71 ranked team with the #77 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 
 
2014
Minnesota finishing the regular season at 8-4 but lost to #27 ranked Missouri in their bowl game to end the season at 8-5.  Minnesota played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Golden Gopher's best game was again a victory over #40 ranked Nebraska 28-24 and their worst loss was to #93 ranked Illinois.  Overall, the Golden Gopher's had the #45 ranked team with the #57 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Jerry Kill made it through week 8 of the regular season with a 4-3 record before he retired.  At the time of coach Kill's retirement Minnesota played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Gopher's best win was over #50 ranked Ohio 27-24 and their worst loss was to #68 ranked Northwestern 0-27.  At the time of Kill's retirement, Minnesota had the #87 ranked team in total production with the #104 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary

George O'Leary Retires from Central Florida

Head football coach George O'Leary retired mid-way through the 2015 college football season.  Head football coach O'Leary has been at UCF since 2004.  Below is a chart of the University of Central Florida Knight's college football team under the last eight seasons under George O'Leary's tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Following is some more details about the UCF Knights.

2008
UCF finished the 2008 regular season at 4-8.  For the season as a whole, the Knight's played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  UCF's best game was their 28-21 victory over #51 Memphis and their worst loss was 13-58 to #87 ranked UTEP.  Overall, the Knight's had the #97 most productive college football team with the #118 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Knights finished the regular season at 8-4 and finished overall at 8-5 with a bowl loss to #21 ranked Rutgers.  UCF played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was plus or minus one standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  UCF's best game was a 37-32 victory over #17 ranked Houston and their worst game was a 14-19 loss was to #39 ranked East Carolina.  Overall, the Knight's had the #60 ranked team in terms of total production with the #75 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
UCF had a third straight season of improvement with a 10-3 regular season and won their bowl game over #37 Georgia to finish 11-3. UCF again played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Knights had a SOS that was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  The Knight's best game was bowl victory over Georgia and their worst game was a 13-17 loss to #69 ranked Kansas State.  UCF finished the season with the #25 ranked team in overall productivity with the #24 ranked offense and the #43 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Knight's finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.   Central Florida again played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Knight's best game was a 30-3 victory over #81 ranked Boston College and their worst game was a 24-26 loss was to #113 ranked UAB.  Central Florida had the #29 ranked team in terms of total production with the #66 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
In terms of overall production the 2012 season was the best during this time period with UCF having the #19 ranked team with the #12 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  UCF finished the regular season at 9-4 defeated #76 ranked Ball State 38-17 in their post bowl season. UCF played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  UCF's best game was again a 42-17 victory over #57 ranked SMU and their worst loss was 16-21 to #93 ranked Missouri.

2013
In terms of wins and losses, the University of Central Florida Knights finished the regular season again at 11-1 and defeated #4 ranked Baylor 52-42 in the bowl game to finish 12-1 overall.  The Knights played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #2 ranked Louisville and their only loss was to #14 ranked South Carolina.  Overall, UCF had the #20 ranked team with the #16 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
UCF finishing the regular season at 8-4 but lost to #25 ranked North Carolina State in their bowl game to end the season at 8-5.  UCF played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Knights best game was a victory over #14 ranked East Carolina 32-30 and their worst loss was to #114 ranked Connecticut.  Overall, the Knights had the #49 ranked team with the #84 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
George O'Leary made it through week 8 of the regular season with a 0-8 record before he retired.  At the time of O'Leary's retirement UCF played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Knight's worst loss was to FCS Furham 15-16.  At the time of O'Leary's retirement, UCF had the #126 ranked team in total production with the #127 ranked offense and the #122 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden

Miami FL Football since 2008

After Miami (FL) worst loss in school history, the University of Miami (FL) has fired head football coach Al Golden.  So let's take a look at the Miami (FL) Hurricanes football program since the 2008 season.  Randy Shannon was the head football coach during this time period (until 2010) and Al Golden was the head football coach from 2011 to 2015.

Head Coach Randy Shannon

2008
Miami (FL) finished the 2008 regular season at 7-5 and lost their post-season bowl to #14 ranked California.  For the season as a whole, the Hurricanes played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Miami (FL) best game was their 16-10 victory over #33 Wake Forest and their worst loss was 28-38 to #79 ranked North Carolina State.  Overall, the Hurricane's had the #57 most productive college football team with the #62 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.

2009
Miami (FL) finished the regular season at 9-3 and finishing overall at 9-4 with a bowl loss 14-20 to #27 Wisconsin. Miami (FL)  played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Miami (FL) best game was a 21-20 victory over #8 ranked Oklahoma and their worst game was a 24-33 loss was to #33 ranked North Carolina.  Overall, the Hurricane's had the #20 ranked team in terms of total production with the #29 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense; all improvements over the 2008 campaign.

2010
Miami (FL) finished the regular season with a 7-5 record but lost their bowl game 17-33 to #39 Notre Dame to finish 7-6. This season the Hurricanes played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hurricane's best game was a 26-20 victory over #28 ranked Maryland and their worst game was a 19-24 loss to #85 ranked University of Virginia.  Miami (FL) finished the season with the #36 ranked team in overall productivity with the #47 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense. Yet, this was not productive enough and Miami (FL) parted ways with head football coach Shannon at the end of the season.

Head Coach Al Golden (2011 - 2015)

2011  
Towards the end of the 2010 season Miami hired Al Golden as there new head football coach.  As the first season as head football coach the Hurricanes finished the regular season at 6-6.   Miami (FL) played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hurricanes best game was a 24-7 victory over #17 ranked Georgia Tech and their worst game was a 24-32 loss was to #96 ranked Maryland.  Miami (FL) had the #49 ranked team in terms of total production with the #48 ranked offense and the #45 ranked defense.  Even with the similar production as under Shannon's last season as head football coach Golden was given a contract extension.

2012  
The Hurricanes finished the regular season at 7-5. Miami (FL) played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Miami (FL) best game was again a 42-36 victory over #50 ranked Georgia Tech and their worst loss was 40-41 to #86 ranked Virginia.  Overall, Miami (FL) had the #74 ranked team with the #62 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense.

2013
The University of Miami (FL) Hurricanes finished the regular season at 9-3 and were defeated 9-36 by the #2 ranked Louisville in the bowl game to finish 9-4 overall.  The Hurricanes again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their  victory over #41 ranked North Carolina 27-23 and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Duke 30-48.  Overall, Miami (FL) had the #46 ranked team with the #33 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Miami (FL) finished the regular season bowl eligible at 6-6 and finished overall at 6-7 losing their bowl game to #79 South Carolina.  Miami (FL) again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, which means that Miami (FL) was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" SOS.  This season the Hurricaness best game was a victory over #29 ranked Cincinnati and their worst loss was to #79 ranked South Carolina.  Overall, the Hurricanes had the #30 ranked team with the #54 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Al Golden only made it through week #8 of the regular season with a 4-3 record, but suffered their worst defeat of the season.  At the time of Golden's departure Miami (FL) played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hurricanes best game up to Golden's departure was a victory over #49 ranked Nebraska and their worst loss was to (at the time) #32 ranked Florida State.  At the time of Golden's departure, Miami (FL) had the #70 ranked team in total production with the #79 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Appalachian State is the most productive team in the FBS, followed by more well know teams such as Clemson, Iowa and Oklahoma! There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Appalachian State
2	Clemson
3	Baylor
4	Navy
5	Iowa
6	Oklahoma
7	Ohio State
8	North Carolina
9	Alabama
10	Florida State
11	Florida
12	Mississippi
13	Western Kentucky
14	Southern Mississippi
15	San Diego State
16	Oklahoma State
17	Louisiana Tech
18	Stanford
19	Michigan
20	Air Force
21	Georgia
22	Georgia Southern
23	Wisconsin
24	Houston
25	LSU

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #11
2015 Top 25 for Week #10
2015 Top 25 for Week #9
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

MLB Regular Season Attendance Analysis

Today I want to look at regular season MLB attendance and see if there has been any statistically significant changes in attendance from 2005 to 2015.  I think this is a fairly stable time period in MLB, with no changes in team locations.  So what has happened to regular season attendance?

In order to answer that question, I am going to look at average regular season home attendance for each team and compare it to average regular season home attendance for each team in the prior season.   I grabbed the data from ESPN.  I am using average regular season attendance since teams do play slightly different number of regular season home games from one season to another.  To determine if average regular season home attendance is different from one season to the next, I will use a t-test.

After calculating the t-test for each pair of seasons (i.e. 2015 average home attendance for all 30 teams to 2014 average home attendance for all 30 teams) I find that there is no statistically significant difference in any pair of seasons.  In other words, statistically for each season there is no difference in league attendance since 2005.  In fact, there is no statistically significant difference between average regular season attendance between the 2005 season and the 2015 season.